MLB's staggered postseason schedule has added a new dimension to pitching staff strategy this year. With at least three planned off days in the LCS, it is very reasonable to try and let your best starting pitcher go three times since rest is much less of an issue.
So since the Red Sox have one great starter (Beckett) and three others (Schilling, Dice-K, Wakefield) who all have some questionable aspect to their potential performance, they seem like the perfect candidate to bring back Game 1 winner Beckett for tonight's Game 4.
Even though pitching on three days rest has been spotty in the postseason for even great pitchers since the Division Series was added in 1995 (team record 39-54, starters ERA 4.37, 5.4 IP, 90 pitches), the Red Sox have a seemingly sure thing in Beckett.
But that is where all the statistical forecasting gets pushed aside for the meteorological forecasting. Rain is expected tonight and is expected to intensify by the start of Game 5. What if Beckett starts tonight and the game is delayed, forcing him to cut his outing short? But then what if they play an uninterrupted game tonight and Game 5 is disrupted by Mother Nature.
Red Sox Nation favors throwing the Cy Young favorite tonight. I agree, unless Chief Wahoo has been sighted doing his rain dance....
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Friday, October 12, 2007
The Wrong Brother
The Red Sox have a long history of acquiring the 'wrong' one among baseball-playing brothers:
* Dom DiMaggio rather than Joe (although Dom was, by all accounts, more admirable than Joe off the field, and a better baseball player (7-time All Star) than Vince (2-time All-Star))
* Jeremy Giambi was supposed to be the answer at designated hitter in 2003, with David Ortiz signed that same winter as back-up insurance. Jeremy was certainly no Big Papi, and has been no Jason Giambi either.
* Which brings us to the news that J.D. ($70M) Drew will likely sit tonight against Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia in favor of Bobby Kielty, who is the very definition of a replacement-level player. (Kielty was signed in August when he was literally out of baseball, having been released by the A's.) Meanwhile, over in the NLCS, Arizona relies on 24-year-old Stephen Drew at shortstop; S. Drew went 7-14 in the NLDS with 4 RBIs (albeit 1-for-4 last night), but also led the Drew family with career-smiles-on-camera (with at least 1, during Game Three in Chicago).
Which is not to say the Sox always get the wrong brother: in 1992, the Dodgers had both Pedro and Ramon Martinez on their roster, and elected to keep Ramon. The Sox signed Ramon in 1999 (to team with brother Pedro), but let Ramon walk after 2001, and stuck with Pedro until 2004.
* Dom DiMaggio rather than Joe (although Dom was, by all accounts, more admirable than Joe off the field, and a better baseball player (7-time All Star) than Vince (2-time All-Star))
* Jeremy Giambi was supposed to be the answer at designated hitter in 2003, with David Ortiz signed that same winter as back-up insurance. Jeremy was certainly no Big Papi, and has been no Jason Giambi either.
* Which brings us to the news that J.D. ($70M) Drew will likely sit tonight against Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia in favor of Bobby Kielty, who is the very definition of a replacement-level player. (Kielty was signed in August when he was literally out of baseball, having been released by the A's.) Meanwhile, over in the NLCS, Arizona relies on 24-year-old Stephen Drew at shortstop; S. Drew went 7-14 in the NLDS with 4 RBIs (albeit 1-for-4 last night), but also led the Drew family with career-smiles-on-camera (with at least 1, during Game Three in Chicago).
Which is not to say the Sox always get the wrong brother: in 1992, the Dodgers had both Pedro and Ramon Martinez on their roster, and elected to keep Ramon. The Sox signed Ramon in 1999 (to team with brother Pedro), but let Ramon walk after 2001, and stuck with Pedro until 2004.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Washington Heights' Finest
The George Washington High School in the Washington Heights section of Manhattan has a number of notable alumni. Henry Kissinger's diplomacy, Harry Belafonte's creative juices, and Rod Carew's hitting stroke all trace their origins to the school. The two alums, however, who are still grabbing the most headlines in today's world, Alan Greenspan and Manny Ramirez, are seemingly very different, yet share a common opacity to the general public. To wit:
Ramirez: "Forget about the trade man. This is the place I want to be man. It's great man. They love me here man. This is the place to be. 'Manny being Manny', it's great man."
July 31, 2005; just after having delivered a game-winning hit on the trade deadline after fully expecting to leave the Red Sox
Greenspan: "I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said."
1988; shortly after becoming Fed Chairman
You could make the argument that lack of clarity gives a Fed Chairman the freedom and flexibility to react appropriately as the economic conditions and markets ebb and flow. And that eccentricity also gives a baseball player the freedom and flexibility to "be himself" in a high-pressure media market.
But what happens after "the game is over"? Greenspan's The Age of Turbulence offers valuable insight into how he formed his worldview and applied it to his job. I, for one, can't wait until Manny's career is over and he writes his book.
Ramirez: "Forget about the trade man. This is the place I want to be man. It's great man. They love me here man. This is the place to be. 'Manny being Manny', it's great man."
July 31, 2005; just after having delivered a game-winning hit on the trade deadline after fully expecting to leave the Red Sox
Greenspan: "I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said."
1988; shortly after becoming Fed Chairman
You could make the argument that lack of clarity gives a Fed Chairman the freedom and flexibility to react appropriately as the economic conditions and markets ebb and flow. And that eccentricity also gives a baseball player the freedom and flexibility to "be himself" in a high-pressure media market.
But what happens after "the game is over"? Greenspan's The Age of Turbulence offers valuable insight into how he formed his worldview and applied it to his job. I, for one, can't wait until Manny's career is over and he writes his book.
Thursday, October 4, 2007
"I Hate You More..."
It was noted a few weeks ago in this space that Mitt Romney (and for that matter Rudy Giuliani), had made a habit of bashing his 'home' state -- Massachusetts -- as part of his campaign's effort to position him as a true conservative who had to trim his sails to be elected in one of the most liberal states in the Union.
But the polls reported above by WBZ yesterday, has to give even the most ardent Romney supporter in Massachusetts pause. Romney does worse in a hypothetical match-up among Bay State voters with Hillary Clinton than Rudy (Romney would lose 65%-31%; Rudy would lose, 59%-34%).
Worse than the raw numbers (and a 2:1 margin is bad in any state, let alone one where you were governor) were the 'man-on-the-street' interviews put together by Jon Keller. (And Keller is no goo-goo liberal; his recent book "The Bluest State" calls Massachusetts, a "Brigadoon of 1960s liberalism.")
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Red Sox-Angels
Most prognosticators are looking forward to a victory for the Red Sox over the Angels, in a Divisional Series that starts today. Moreover, the Sox won the regular season series (6-4), the Angels are suffering from injuries (for example, Vlad Guerrero will hit rather than play right field), and #1-starter John Lackey is 1-6 with a 6.27 ERA in 11 career starts against Boston.
It is clear that the Sox were built for the regular season, and they had the best record there (along with Cleveland) in the majors, at 96-66; they play a modern-day version of Earl Weaver-style baseball: pitching, defense, and three-run homers.
Yet the Angels seemingly offer a counterpoint: they are second in the AL in stolen bases (the leader, ironically, is Baltimore), after leading the league the past three seasons; over the past few days, talking heads on the Boston airwaves have repeated incessantly that 121 times the Angels went "first-to-third on a single."
But the Angels scored 822 runs over the course of the year, 4th in the League to the Red Sox's 867 (good for third); the Angels allowed 731 runs (5th), significantly more than the Red Sox's 657 (1st). Playing small ball may have its disadvantages over the course of 162 games, but it can clearly be important in the context of a short series, and especially an elimination game.
While Lackey has struggled against the Sox, Dice-K's second half (5-6, 5.19 ERA) has left everyone wondering about all of the fuss. While it may be possible that the bad second half was the result of wearing down, it also could be the result of hitters seeing Dice-K a second time; by pitching him in Game 2 (rather than Curt Schilling), the Japanese 'rookie' will be seen by the Angels for the second time in a week in a hypothetical Game 5.
A Sox opening round loss will be bitterly disappointing -- and bitterly recounted on talk radio -- but it's not outside the realm of possibility. While the Sox should win, don't bet the (subprime) mortgage on it.
It is clear that the Sox were built for the regular season, and they had the best record there (along with Cleveland) in the majors, at 96-66; they play a modern-day version of Earl Weaver-style baseball: pitching, defense, and three-run homers.
Yet the Angels seemingly offer a counterpoint: they are second in the AL in stolen bases (the leader, ironically, is Baltimore), after leading the league the past three seasons; over the past few days, talking heads on the Boston airwaves have repeated incessantly that 121 times the Angels went "first-to-third on a single."
But the Angels scored 822 runs over the course of the year, 4th in the League to the Red Sox's 867 (good for third); the Angels allowed 731 runs (5th), significantly more than the Red Sox's 657 (1st). Playing small ball may have its disadvantages over the course of 162 games, but it can clearly be important in the context of a short series, and especially an elimination game.
While Lackey has struggled against the Sox, Dice-K's second half (5-6, 5.19 ERA) has left everyone wondering about all of the fuss. While it may be possible that the bad second half was the result of wearing down, it also could be the result of hitters seeing Dice-K a second time; by pitching him in Game 2 (rather than Curt Schilling), the Japanese 'rookie' will be seen by the Angels for the second time in a week in a hypothetical Game 5.
A Sox opening round loss will be bitterly disappointing -- and bitterly recounted on talk radio -- but it's not outside the realm of possibility. While the Sox should win, don't bet the (subprime) mortgage on it.
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