Tuesday, May 13, 2008

The End of the Beginning?

Democrats hoping that the primary race will end soon would do well to focus on this map:

(Courtesy: Jay Cost and Sean Oxendine.)

The area outlined is "Appalachia", which will vote today (in West Virginia) and in one week (in Kentucky).

Fill in the remainder of the outline in dark blue, and one might expect +30 point wins tonight and next Tuesday. And if those wins materialize, is that likely to allow Hillary to make a graceful exit (as some suggest) from the race, or only embolden her and her core supporters to make the argument that the Democratic "base" -- personified in Appalachia -- is not supporting the presumptive nominee?

While Obama is already moving (based on his campaign schedule) to a national calendar (he's in Cape Girardeau, MO, today), how does he explain the drubbing that he seems likely to receive as the end of the primary calendar draws near?

Obama is still in position to win the nomination, but it seems likely that there will be at least one more plot turn before it's all over.

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