GIGO?

Ken Pomeroy has done a terrific job documenting and analyzing data relating to college basketball, much like Bill James for baseball a generation ago. His blog (and writing at Basketball Prospectus) has introduced new stats such as "Effective Height" and "Defensive Fingerprint." Stats such as these have given observers a set of tools to use to evaluate College Basketball teams.

That being said, the core stat -- the Pomeroy Rating -- has been less than stellar during this NCAA tournament. Although there were few major upsets in the first two rounds of the tournament (meaning that the "power conference" teams mainly survived to the Sweet Sixteen Round), Pomeroy's ratings have had middling results.

With that in mind, let's take a tour back through each of the four regions, comparing Pomeroy's ratings against other ranking systems: the NCAA Men's Committee itself (NCAA), the final AP poll (AP), and RPI (Ratings Percentage Index, as calculated here. (RPI))

Only Sweet Sixteen and later games are used, to try and emphasize the differences between the systems. (After all, every system will get the 1-16 and 2-15 games correctly; by the time you reach the round of 16, the choices are hard, as anyone who's ever done a bracket will tell you.) Note that while KenPom systems remains 'dynamic', adding information from each successive game and updating results, the NCAA, AP, and RPI ratings used here were 'fixed' at the end of the regular season.

EAST

Sweet Sixteen actual teams: Pitt vs. Xavier; Villanova vs. Duke

Predicted results:

NCAA: (1) Pitt over (4) Xav (correct); (2) Duke over (3) Nova (incorrect). (1-1)

AP: (4) Pitt over (20) Xav (correct); (6) Duke over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-1)

RPI: (2) Pitt over (17) Xav (correct); (1) Duke over (13) Nova (incorrect) (1-1)

KenPom: (5) Pitt over (20) Xav (correct); (11) Duke over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-1)


Finals: Pitt vs. Villanova

NCAA: (1) Pitt over (3) Nova (incorrect). (1-2, cumulative)

AP: (4) Pitt over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-2)

RPI: (2) Pitt over (13) Nova (incorrect) (1-2)

KenPom: (5) Pitt over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-2)

SOUTH

Sweet Sixteen actual teams: UNC vs. Gonzaga; Syracuse vs. Oklahoma

NCAA: (1) UNC over (4) Gonzaga (correct); (2) OU over (3) Cuse (correct) (3-2, cumulative)

AP: (2) UNC over (10) Gonzaga (corret); (7) OU over (13) Cuse (correct) (3-2)

RPI: (3) UNC over (26) Zaga (correct); (5) OU over (12) Cuse (correct); (3-2)

KenPom: (3) UNC over (8) Zaga (correct); (13) OU over (15) Cuse (correct); (3-2)


Finals: UNC vs. OU

NCAA: (1) UNC over (2) OU over (4-2, cumulative)

AP: (2) UNC over (7) OU (correct) (4-2)

RPI: (3) UNC over (5) OU over (correct); (4-2)

KenPom: (3) UNC over (13) (correct); (4-2)

MIDWEST

Sweet Sixteen actual teams: Louisville vs. Arizona; Kansas vs, Michigan State.

NCAA: (1) Lou over (12) Ariz (correct); (2) MSU over (3) KU (correct) (6-2, cumulative)

AP: (1) Lou over (NR) Ariz (correct); (8) MSU over (14) KU (correct) (6-2)

RPI: (4) Lou over (62) Ariz (correct); (6) MSU over (11) KU (correct) (6-2)

KenPom: (4) Lou over (40) Ariz (correct); (7) MSU over (10) KU (correct) (6-2)


Finals: Lou vs. MSU

NCAA: (1) Lou over (2) MSU (incorrect) (6-3, cumulative)

AP: (1) Lou over (8) MSU (incorrect) (6-3)

RPI: (4) Lou over (6) MSU (incorrect)(6-3)

KenPom: (4) Lou over (7) MSU (incorrect) (6-3)

WEST

Sweet Sixteen Actual teams: UConn vs. Purdue; Missouri vs. Memphis

NCAA: (1) UConn over (5) Purdue (correct); (2) Mem over (3) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)

AP: (5) UConn over (17) Purdue (correct); (3) Mem over (9) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)

RPI: (8) UConn over (20) Purdue (correct); (7) Mem over (10) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)

KenPom: (2) Uconn over (17) Purdue (correct); (1) Mem over (6) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)


Finals: UConn vs. Mizzou

NCAA: (1) UConn over (3) Mizzou (correct) (8-4, cumulative)

AP: (5) UConn over (9) Mizzou (correct) (8-4)

RPI: (8) UConn over (10) Mizzou (correct) (8-4)

KenPom: (2) Uconn over (6) Mizzou (correct) (8-4)

FINAL FOUR:

UNC vs. Villanova; MSU vs. UConn.

NCAA: (1) UConn over (2) MSU (incorrect); (1) UNC over (3) Nova (correct) (9-5, cumulative)

AP: (5) UConn vs. (8) MSU (incorrect); (2) UNC over (11) Nova (correct); (9-5)

RPI: (6) MSU over (8) UConn (correct); (3) UNC over (13) Nova (correct) (10-4)

KenPom: (2) UConn over (7) MSU (incorrect); (3) UNC over (14) Nova (correct)(9-5)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:

UNC vs. MSU

NCAA: (1) UNC over (2) MSU

AP: (2) UNC over (8) MSU

RPI: (3) UNC over (6) MSU

KenPom: (3) UNC over (7) MSU

As all four systems have the same prediction for tonight's game, there can be no change in the final standings, which leaves the much maligned RPI as the 'most accurate', at least for this year.

RPI: 11-4 or 10-5

NCAA: 10-5 or 9-6

AP: 10-5 or 9-6

KenPom: 10-5 or 9-6