The "Loyal" Opposition 2

Some, at least in the GOP, seem to have realized that intellectual bankruptcy will, if continued, give rise to electoral bankruptcy.

Here's some (off-the-record) strategy from Byron York at the DC Examiner:

"You're seeing a major doctrinal shift in how Republicans are going to focus all these debates," the strategist told me. "The key is to focus on winning the issue as opposed to winning the political moment. If you win the issue, people will think you are ready to govern."

I asked him to elaborate a little. "With the political moment, it's how can you find the one thing that gives you the momentary upper hand in terms of the coverage for the next six hours -- as opposed to engaging the electorate in creating a structural change in their opinion on which party is better able to handle an issue."

Whether this "change" in strategy makes it through the next news cycle will have to be examined, although York noted that House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) apparently changed the subject rather than continue to talk about the stimulus package.

Worth remembering -- despite all the hot air about how effective the New Deal was or wasn't in combatting the Great Depression, there's one area where it was brutally effective: voting Republicans out of office.

In the 70th Congress (elected in 1928), the GOP had 56 Senate seats, against 39 for the Democrats (1 Farmer-Labor).

In the 71st Congress (elected in 1930), the 96 Senate seats were split 48 GOP, 47 Dem (with 1 Farmer-Labor).

In the 1932 election, 12 Republicans lost their seats, making the split 59 Dem, 36 GOP, 1 Fam-Lab.

By 1937, (i.e., just after the FDR re-election), the number of GOP had been reduced to 16.

Said another way, almost three-quarters of Republican Senators serving when Herbert Hoover became President were unseated within eight years.

Who's In Charge?

The first trip by Barack Obama to the White House yesterday undoubtedly was intended by President George W. Bush as a way to show stability in a time of uncertainty and indicate to the world that the transition will be accomplished without -- to choose a word made popular in the post-election write-ups -- "drama."

Yet Obama was just a few minutes from the West Gate when word leaked that 43 and 44 had clashed over whether part of the TARP money -- the $700B allocated in the midst of the financial crisis -- could be accessed by the struggling auto industry. (Bush apparently is demanding a free-trade pact with Colombia as the price of the TARP Detroit bail-out. Somewhere, Mark Penn sighs.)

There may be some wisdom for the Obama team to study the transition efforts of FDR in 1932. Just a few weeks after defeating Herbert Hoover, FDR traveled to Washington at Hoover's request to hear about Hoover's plan to deal with the news (delivered shortly after the election) that France and Britain might default on their WWI debts.

But unlike Obama, who apparently pressed Bush on policy matters, FDR did not engage. He came to Washington to "be informed on pending matters" not make any decisions, despite Hoover's requests. The war debt was Hoover's baby, FDR later told advisers. He also refused an entreaty from Hoover in mid-December to become involved with the US position on the World Economic Council.

FDR did however, apparently offered to be named Secretary of State during the waning days of the Hoover Administration, with the intent that he would become acting President if Hoover and his VP (Charles Curtis) resigned. Hoover, needless to say, did not take up his offer.

In a final transition note, FDR almost did not survive to take office. On February 15, 1933, FDR gave a speech in Miami's Bayfront Park together with Chicago Mayor Anton Cermak. Giuseppe Zangara fired a pistol at FDR, but managed to hit five others, including Cermak, who was shaking hands with FDR at the time. Overruling the Secret Service, FDR had his car reversed and transported Cermak to the hospital, where he died several weeks later.

Zangara was executed by the State of Florida in the electric chair thirty-three days after the shooting.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1931 - 1940)

1940 - Cincinnati Reds (Mgr Bill McKechnie, C Ernie Lombardi)

1939 - New York Yankees (Mgr Joe McCarthy, C Bill Dickey, OF Joe DiMaggio, P Red Ruffing, P Lefty Gomez)

1938 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey, 1B Lou Gehrig, DiMaggio, Ruffing, Gomez)

1937 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey, Gehrig, 2B Tony Lazzeri, DiMaggio, Ruffing, Gomez)

1936 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey, Gehrig, Lazzeri, DiMaggio, Ruffing, Gomez)

1935 - Detroit Tigers (Mgr/C Mickey Cochrane, 1B Hank Greenberg, 2B Charlie Gehringer, OF Goose Goslin)

1934 - St. Louis Cardinals (2B Frankie Frisch, OF Joe Medwick, P Dizzy Dean)

1933 - New York Giants (Mgr/1B Bill Terry, OF Mel Ott, P Carl Hubbell)

1932 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey, 3B Joe Sewell, OF Babe Ruth, Lazzeri, Gehrig, Gomez, Ruffing, P Herb Pennock)

1931 - St. Louis Cardinals (1B Jim Bottomley, 2B Frankie Frisch, OF Chick Hafey, P Burleigh Grimes)

50 HOF, 10 WS Championship Team = 5.0 HOF/WS

Note: SS Leo Durocher played 146 games for 1934 STL, including 7-27, 4 R in WS.

Note(2): C Ernie Lombardi played just 109 G for 1940 CIN, and 2G, 1-3, 1 2B in WS.

Back to the Future?

Courtesy: Library of Congress.

Electing FDR

With shadows from 1929 appearing -- seemingly -- on the business (and front) pages every day, it is perhaps instructive to look back at the true "Great Depression", and the election held in 1932. (It is worth noting that there appears to be an increase in interest in the FDR era in pop culture at this time as well, from AMC's "Mad Men" and the "Hobo Code" to John McCain's memories of Pearl Harbor in his RNC Nomination Speech.)

Donald Ritchie's "Electing FDR: The New Deal Campaign of 1932" begins with the rise of Herbert Hoover, self-made man, shortly after the turn of the century. By the end of the First World War, Hoover (then just 43 years old) was entrusted with the Food Administration, and had become a national figure. By 1920, some Washington wags were discussing a potential Hoover-FDR ticket on the Democratic side; Hoover demurred, and eventually declared himself a Republican. (It was interesting to learn that Hoover and Roosevelt were social acquaintances.)

By 1927, Hoover helped organize relief for the Mississippi River flood (the previous 'big one' that was referenced during Hurricane Katrina), and became the GOP nominee in 1928. Facing Al Smith, the New York Governor and first Catholic to head a party ticket, Hoover won with the promise of a "chicken in every pot, a car in every garage."

Four years later, promises of the "Hoover economy" had collapsed into the bitterness of "Hoovervilles" and "Hoover blankets" (newspapers). But he was relieved when FDR won the Democratic nomination in Chicago (holding off a challenge from his former mentor, Al Smith); Hoover felt that FDR would not be a tough opponent.

FDR for his part did not underestimate the incumbent, although Hoover did not campaign vigorously (employing the Rose Garden strategy) until very near the end. Moreover events moved against Hoover: a "Bonus March" of WWI veterans was broken up -- albeit over Hoover's orders for non-violence -- by calvary commanded by Douglas MacArthur (with assistance from Dwight D. Eisenhower). Public opinion -- which incredibly seemed split evenly between FDR and Hoover, although polling was in its infancy -- began to move against the sitting President.

In the end, the country was ready to turn to a fresh leader (although one with a familiar name). FDR tallied 22.8M votes against just 15.7M for Hoover.

The transition, which lasted through March, when FDR was sworn in, was marked by a near assassination (in Miami, when Chicago Mayor Anton Cermak was struck and eventually died; the assassin was convicted and executed within 33 days after the shooting); and increasing tension between former associates Hoover and FDR.

Although the Depression would linger for much of the rest of the 1930s, the country was clearly headed in a new direction. Hoover's reluctant campaigning and bad luck (as evidenced by the Bonus March), combined with the crushing economic climate, made the result a foregone conclusion (in retrospect).

But the backstory -- and the personal relationship between the two combatants -- made the re-telling an interesting one, especially given the current business headlines.