Predictions: New Hampshire

Picking up where we left off in Iowa:

GOP:
1. McCain - reminiscing
2. Romney - energized
3. Giuliani - hopeful
4. Huckabee - bad track
5. Thompson - wondering

Dems:
1. Obama - ran away
2. Clinton - losing touch
3. Edwards - angrily
4. Richardson - heading West

Update:
Obviously, the combination of independent women moving towards Hillary, and independent men (many of whom surely felt that Obama's apparent growing lead was safe) moving towards McCain -- as they did in 2000 -- was instrumental.

However, it's clear that Hillary's margin was obtained in the urban wards in Manchester, Berlin, and Nashua; a quick analysis would indicate that the race will be a traditional city/suburban split. But New Hampshire's cities -- like the state itself -- are overwhelmingly white. As the race moves south and west, cities will be much more diverse, and therefore more amenable to an Obama appeal.

It is worth noting that while New Hampshire has a huge "Independent" bloc, many are Independent because there are no penalties for being so -- the actual independents are probably in the 10% range, not the reported 40%. In other states, most NH Independents will stay in their respective parties.

Predictions: Iowa

Yes, yes, it's impossible to predict the Iowa caucuses, and the polls (especially those released in the last few days) are more likely to be wrong than right, but for just-for-the-heck of it, here's one view how the caucusing will go tonight, with one- or two-words of analysis (with kudos to the Daily Racing Form):

Republicans:
1. Romney - Muddy win
2. Huckabee - Bad homestretch
3. McCain - Closing
4. Giuliani - Went wide
5. Thompson - Broke down

Democrats:
1. Obama - Closed
2. Edwards - Holding on
3. Clinton - Faded
4. Biden - Classy, consistent
5. Dodd - Slow start


Post-Iowa Update:

Here's what the analysis should have been, with the apparent results at 12am:

GOP:
1. Huckabee - resolute
2. Romney - desperate
3. Thompson - uncertain
4. McCain - restarted
5. Giuliani - out-of-touch

Dems:
1. Obama - impressive kick
2. Edwards - clinging
3. Clinton - shaken
4. Richardson - surprising
5. Biden - distant
6. Dodd - quietly

Dick Lugar, Meet David Stockman

Reliable GOP Senator -- and respected foreign policy mind(*) -- Richard Lugar raised eyebrows on Capitol Hill yesterday when he essentially declared that he has run of patience with the current strategy:

'In my judgment, the costs and risks of continuing down the current path outweigh the potential benefits that might be achieved,' Lugar, R-Ind., said in a Senate floor speech. 'Persisting indefinitely with the surge strategy will delay policy adjustments that have a better chance of protecting our vital interests over the long term.'

While Lugar's statement is probably the third or fourth biggest political news of the week (after, in no particular order, Dick Cheney's declaration of the Office of the Vice President as being a de facto fourth branch of government; cloture vote on the immigration law; the Washington Post's disclosures about Cheney's procedural end-arounds in the White House, and news about the 2008 GOP candidates (Fred Thompson's lobbying past, Mitt Romney's investment in his own campaign, Rudy's problems with the Catholic Church)), it was not missed by the White House. Apparently, Lugar has been 'invited ' to a sit-down -- or perhaps a visit to David Stockman's woodshed -- at the White House with NSA Stephen Hadley later in the week. No word on whether a 'surge' will be applied to Lugar himself.

(*-Ohio Senator George Voinovich echoed Lugar's remarks today, but the bet here is that Lugar's comments will carry more weight.)