In Ben Bernanke's much anticipated speech today in Jackson Hole, he essentially absolved the Fed of responsibility for protecting market participants from bad financial decisions, emphasizing vigilance yet patience and allowing others to make policy decisions that should relieve pressure on the economy's best friend: the US consumer.
Equity markets liked the speech, even though the market expectation for Fed rate cuts this year has been tempered. Unlike his predecessor, who was famous for swiftly cutting rates to ensure liquidity, Bernanke seems to be content biding his time despite some implicit pleading by others.
Of course this positive market action could just be month-end (and quarter-end for some broker-dealers) window dressing....
Friday, August 31, 2007
Thursday, August 30, 2007
College Football Preview and Countdown (Final)
With the kickoff to the college football season just hours away, it's time to unveil the projected national champ:
#1 - Virginia Tech (currently #9 in the AP Poll)
The Hokies have been in the news a lot recently, including the tragic shootings this past spring, and of course, the off-the-field 'exploits' of this famous alum:
Key Game: Coach Beamer and the Lunchpailers will know early whether the Hokies can channel their emotions: September 8th @ LSU. Win, and the road to January 7th opens with only a Thursday Night (November 1st) game @ Ga. Tech standing in the way; lose, and the road seems much harder, including visits to Blacksburg by Fla State (Nov. 10th) and Miami (November 17th).
#1 - Virginia Tech (currently #9 in the AP Poll)
The Hokies have been in the news a lot recently, including the tragic shootings this past spring, and of course, the off-the-field 'exploits' of this famous alum:
Key Game: Coach Beamer and the Lunchpailers will know early whether the Hokies can channel their emotions: September 8th @ LSU. Win, and the road to January 7th opens with only a Thursday Night (November 1st) game @ Ga. Tech standing in the way; lose, and the road seems much harder, including visits to Blacksburg by Fla State (Nov. 10th) and Miami (November 17th).
'Wither' the Yankees?
The complaining from long-time Yankee fans is hard to stomach (and by "long-time", we mean as long as Mr. Intangibles has been in the big leagues, the equivalent of the "pink hats" in Boston.) The Yankees have won 9 division titles in a row (Quick Quiz: name the last AL East team other than the Yanks to win), but the dream, as they say, is about to die, notwithstanding the results the past two, er three, nights(*). To put it in perspective, the last time the Red Sox won a division title (1995), the lineup included the following immortals (note: because of the strike, the Sox played just 144 games in 1995):
C - Mike MacFarlane (115 G)
2B - Luis Alicea (132 G)
3B - Tim Naehring (126 G)
SS - John Valentin (135 G)
OF - Mike Greenwell (120 G)
OF - Troy O'Leary (112 G)
OF - Lee Tinsley (100 G)
Add 1B Mo Vaughn and DH Jose Canseco to the mix and you could imagine how the Sox could compete in the tabloids, if not on the field...
As for burning through pitchers, it is a Yankee tradition that precedes Joe Torre (who, by the way, preceded Mr. Jeter by one year in New York). In 1989, for instance, the Yankees had a then-23-year-old Al Leiter throw 174 pitches in a single outing; he then struggled through a total of fewer than 10 major league innings in the next three years -- combined. (Leiter, it should noted, is currently a color analyst on the YES Network; perhaps the Bombers felt guilty about blowing out a young arm.)
What does that mean to Roy Oswalt? The Astro's starter has been a workhorse over the past few years, including leading the league in starts twice (2004, 05) and has been in the Top Ten in Innings Pitched 5 of the past 6 years (including 2007, where he is currently third). Let's hope that the modern pitch count era means that Mr. Oswalt won't be the "victim" of a modern-day Billy Martin next year in Houston.
Quick Quiz Answer: Your Baltimore Orioles in 1997
(* - Sox lost, 5-0, as Yanks completed the sweep.)
C - Mike MacFarlane (115 G)
2B - Luis Alicea (132 G)
3B - Tim Naehring (126 G)
SS - John Valentin (135 G)
OF - Mike Greenwell (120 G)
OF - Troy O'Leary (112 G)
OF - Lee Tinsley (100 G)
Add 1B Mo Vaughn and DH Jose Canseco to the mix and you could imagine how the Sox could compete in the tabloids, if not on the field...
As for burning through pitchers, it is a Yankee tradition that precedes Joe Torre (who, by the way, preceded Mr. Jeter by one year in New York). In 1989, for instance, the Yankees had a then-23-year-old Al Leiter throw 174 pitches in a single outing; he then struggled through a total of fewer than 10 major league innings in the next three years -- combined. (Leiter, it should noted, is currently a color analyst on the YES Network; perhaps the Bombers felt guilty about blowing out a young arm.)
What does that mean to Roy Oswalt? The Astro's starter has been a workhorse over the past few years, including leading the league in starts twice (2004, 05) and has been in the Top Ten in Innings Pitched 5 of the past 6 years (including 2007, where he is currently third). Let's hope that the modern pitch count era means that Mr. Oswalt won't be the "victim" of a modern-day Billy Martin next year in Houston.
Quick Quiz Answer: Your Baltimore Orioles in 1997
(* - Sox lost, 5-0, as Yanks completed the sweep.)
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Happy Birthday, Roy Oswalt
The pride of Weir, Mississippi, Roy Oswalt, turned 30 today and celebrated by shutting the resurgent Cardinals out on 4 hits over 7 innings, striking out nine. Exactly how good is old Roy?
Well, the list of pitchers who have finished in the top five in Cy Young voting six times during their first seven years in the league has exactly zero entries...until this November when Oswalt (14-6, 3.21) will start the list unless the wheels completely come off the cart. The only year he didn't crack Top 5 was 2003 when he went 10-5, 2.97 in an injury-plagued season.
He is tops in the majors with 112 wins since 2001, already top 15 on the career list in winning percentage and Adjusted ERA+ and has won 53.2% of his career starts. Throw in 19-1, 2.46 in 24 career games just against the Reds and you start to get a sense that he's pretty good.
So the guy whose career was saved by a loose spark plug has quietly amassed the most consistently dominant beginning of a starting pitcher's career in baseball history. Let's just hope that 8-10 years from now he doesn't end up like the pitcher whose career was most like his through age 28.
Well, the list of pitchers who have finished in the top five in Cy Young voting six times during their first seven years in the league has exactly zero entries...until this November when Oswalt (14-6, 3.21) will start the list unless the wheels completely come off the cart. The only year he didn't crack Top 5 was 2003 when he went 10-5, 2.97 in an injury-plagued season.
He is tops in the majors with 112 wins since 2001, already top 15 on the career list in winning percentage and Adjusted ERA+ and has won 53.2% of his career starts. Throw in 19-1, 2.46 in 24 career games just against the Reds and you start to get a sense that he's pretty good.
So the guy whose career was saved by a loose spark plug has quietly amassed the most consistently dominant beginning of a starting pitcher's career in baseball history. Let's just hope that 8-10 years from now he doesn't end up like the pitcher whose career was most like his through age 28.
Daly City Update
As predicted, Hillary's campaign has announced that she will divest herself (by giving to charity) close to $23,000 contributed by Norman Hsu. Others appear ready to follow suit, including Al Franken, a Senate candidate in Minnesota, Reps. Michael Honda and Doris Matsui of California and Rep. Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania.
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