Who's In Charge?

The first trip by Barack Obama to the White House yesterday undoubtedly was intended by President George W. Bush as a way to show stability in a time of uncertainty and indicate to the world that the transition will be accomplished without -- to choose a word made popular in the post-election write-ups -- "drama."

Yet Obama was just a few minutes from the West Gate when word leaked that 43 and 44 had clashed over whether part of the TARP money -- the $700B allocated in the midst of the financial crisis -- could be accessed by the struggling auto industry. (Bush apparently is demanding a free-trade pact with Colombia as the price of the TARP Detroit bail-out. Somewhere, Mark Penn sighs.)

There may be some wisdom for the Obama team to study the transition efforts of FDR in 1932. Just a few weeks after defeating Herbert Hoover, FDR traveled to Washington at Hoover's request to hear about Hoover's plan to deal with the news (delivered shortly after the election) that France and Britain might default on their WWI debts.

But unlike Obama, who apparently pressed Bush on policy matters, FDR did not engage. He came to Washington to "be informed on pending matters" not make any decisions, despite Hoover's requests. The war debt was Hoover's baby, FDR later told advisers. He also refused an entreaty from Hoover in mid-December to become involved with the US position on the World Economic Council.

FDR did however, apparently offered to be named Secretary of State during the waning days of the Hoover Administration, with the intent that he would become acting President if Hoover and his VP (Charles Curtis) resigned. Hoover, needless to say, did not take up his offer.

In a final transition note, FDR almost did not survive to take office. On February 15, 1933, FDR gave a speech in Miami's Bayfront Park together with Chicago Mayor Anton Cermak. Giuseppe Zangara fired a pistol at FDR, but managed to hit five others, including Cermak, who was shaking hands with FDR at the time. Overruling the Secret Service, FDR had his car reversed and transported Cermak to the hospital, where he died several weeks later.

Zangara was executed by the State of Florida in the electric chair thirty-three days after the shooting.

What a Difference Four Years Makes

It's worth remembering, on the eve of the election, that just four years ago, President Bush didn't recognize Barack Obama's name, according to the New Yorker:

[Congresswoman] Jan Schakowsky [spoke] about a recent visit she had made to the White House with a congressional delegation. On her way out, she said, President Bush noticed her “Obama” button. “He jumped back, almost literally,” she said. “And I knew what he was thinking. So I reassured him it was Obama, with a ‘b.’ And I explained who he was. The President said, ‘Well, I don’t know him.’ So I just said, ‘You will.’ ”

Projecting the Hall of Famers in the 2008 World Series

While Fox Sports may be disappointed by a Tampa Bay Rays/Philadelphia Phillies World Series, a fan of old-fashioned baseball should look forward to the match-up.

Tampa is riding one of the great sports stories of all time: never having won more than 70 games in a season, the Rays dropped the "Devil" and went from a worst-in-baseball 66 wins a year ago to 97 wins (trailing only the LA Angels, and tied with the Cubs.)

Playing in a division with two super-powers, the Rays have adapted by drafting good young talent, and building a team that should be able to compete for the next 3-4 years. Evan Longoria (22 years old), BJ Upton (23), and Carl Crawford (26(!)) are the anchors to build a line-up around. And the pitching is perhaps even better, with James Shields (26), Scott Kazmir (24), Matt Garza (24), and live-armed David Price (22).

Historically, virtually every World Series champ sports at least one Hall-of-Famer (see below posts for the comprehensive (we hope) list), and many have two or three. (From 1903 to 1980, every single team had at least one player; the 1981 strike-season Dodgers have only manager Tommy Lasorda, and like the 2005 Chicago White Sox, seem unlikely to add any more players.) While the vagaries of the Hall-of-Fame selection process are the subject for another post, the relationship between the HOF and WS Champs is probably two-fold:

1. In order to win, you need great years out of your great players. Like a bad penny, 'bad' players --- Babe Ruth, Tris Speaker, Harry Hooper, Johnny Evers in the old days, and Jack Morris, Rickey Henderson, and Reggie Jackson in the modern ones -- keep showing up with championship teams.

2. Hall-of-Fame voters -- like other voters in other elections -- like winners. When your team wins the title, you are more likely to be remembered, and enshrined in Cooperstown. Yes, yes... we are talking about you, Curt Schilling. And Enos Slaughter as well. And of course (and ironically, as his career ended when the Yankees cut him to make room for Slaughter in August, 1956), Phil Rizzuto. A World Series title or two is a huge bonus for a guy who otherwise would be on the HOF bubble.

So who are the HOF candidates for these two teams? For the Phillies, it's easy: 1B Ryan Howard and SS Jimmy Rollins have both taken significant steps towards Cooperstown in their first few years in the bigs (5 years for Howard, 9 for Rollins). Both have earned more than half of the mythical 100 points that Bill James has documented is necessary to be a 'likely HOFer' in his HOF Monitor. (Howard has 63.5/100, while Rollins has 58/100.) And both will take a further step if their team wins it's first title in 28 years.

Tampa's players are so young, in contrast, that no one is on track for the HOF. Crawford, the longest tenured Ray with 7 years, has accumulated just 31.5 HOF Monitor 'points'; however his list of "similar players" includes HOFers Sam Crawford and Roberto Clemente. Closer Troy Percival is a potential HOFer (86/100), but he has been hurt and has yet to pitch in the 2008 post-season.

Tampa seems deeper and better. And the Rays win, we could be looking back some day to the day when a young Ray took the first step toward baseball immortality.

Prediction: Rays in 6.

And another rebuilding year in the Bronx in 2009.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (Summary)

2001-2007: 1.8 HOFer on each WS champ (projected).

1991-2000: 3.0 HOFer on each WS champ (projected).

1981-1990: 1.2 HOFers on each WS champ (actual).

1971-1980: 2.9 HOFers on each WS champ.

1961-1970: 3.0 HOFers on each WS champ.

1951-1960: 4.3 HOFers on each WS champ.

1941-1950: 3.1 HOFer on each WS champion

1931-1940: 5.0 HOFers on each WS champion.

1921-1930: 4.4 HOFers on each WS champion.

1911-1920: 2.8 HOFers on each WS champion.

1903-1910: 3.0 HOFers on each WS champion.

World Series Champs and Hall of Famers (2001 - 2007)

(All likely or possible HOFers.)

2007 - Boston Red Sox (OF Manny Ramirez (on Bill James' HOF Monitor, 208 out of 100), P Curt Schilling (171/100))

2006 - St. Louis Cardinals (1B Albert Pujols (189/100), Mgr. Tony LaRussa)

2005 - Chicago White Sox

2004 - Boston Red Sox (P Pedro Martinez (202/100), Ramirez, Schilling)

2003 - Florida Marlins (C Pudge Rodriguez (228/100))

2002 - Anaheim Angels (P Troy Percival (86/100))

2001 - Arizona Diamondbacks (Schilling, P Randy Johnson (322/100))

Projected HOFers = 11, out of 6 WS Championship teams = 1.8 HOF/WS

Note: DH Frank Thomas played 34G for 2005 CHW; did not play in WS.