When Amazing Happens from 15 Feet

The NBA's playoff ad campaign is brilliant: a pianist plays stark thirds, an empty basketball court and arena slowly (thanks to a reverse-CGI) filled to life with Kobe to Shaq...Bird's steal...Magic's Junior Sky-hook.

There's one other "Amazing" highlight that brings the NBA's past to its future: Dr. J's swoop. For NBA fans of a certain age, it defined all that basketball could be -- power, mid-air acrobatics, and grace. That moment was seared -- thanks to countless replays -- on the mind of millions.

But who saw it live? Only the 18,000 or so in Philadelphia's Spectrum who were in attendance for Game Four of the 1980 Finals. For everyone else, the 1980 Finals were consigned to late night television -- speaking of amazing -- on 'tape delay.'

The NBA of the late 1970s was a much different league than the one declared "Fannnn-tastic" just a few years later. It was a league that had gone through the 1970s built on terrific teams (the post-Russell Celtics, Knicks, and Lakers in the first half of the decade, the immortal Blazers in 1977), but after the ABA merger, it was a with little defense, little charisma, and little fan support (the 1979-80 Lakers drew 582,882, good for 3rd in the League; the Lakers this season drew 778,877, a 33% increase in numbers, good for 8th in the League.)

But presented with two well-known (thanks to the 1979 NCAA Final) and marketable stars -- Magic and Bird -- the NBA turned to a star-based system. The teams became identified by single players, and thanks to the leadership of the two most prominent; renewed interest in college basketball created interest in the pro game, culminating with the 1984 draft (3 of the top 5 players were eventual Hall of Famers, highlighted by His Airness, and the other was Sam Perkins, who played in 1286 games(*)) and interest and attendance spiked, from 450,331 (10,983 per game) in 1979-80 to 641,616 (15,649 per game) ten years later.

(*-While NBA games played is not the only measure of a player to be sure, it's more games than every player drafted at #4 from 1985 to 1994 (Rasheed Wallace was the #4 in 1995, and he's still active. Inserting footnotes in the text -- Hat tip to Joe Pos.)

But as teams -- and marketing campaigns -- were built around stars, the league had to make some tricky choices. Fans came out to the stadium to see Michael, Dominique, and Isiah, and it wasn't doing anyone any good to see them on the bench with foul trouble.

More important -- and more ominous for the integrity of refereeing -- stars became subject to kid glove treatment. In 1979-80, the top five in free throws attempted were Moses Malone (#1), World B. Free, Dan Issel, John Drew, and Reggie Theus. Malone and Issel were legitimate stars (both are in the Hall of Fame), but the other three were good, but not great players who played in a total of 5 All-Star Games.

Contrast with 1989-90, where the top five in FTA is dominated by Hall of Famers (Karl Malone, David Robinson, the Chuckster, Jordan and Patrick Ewing.)(**) FTA per game were also up slightly during the period, from 56 per game in 1979-80 to 57 per game in 1989-90, although defenses were becoming more physical in the era of the Detroit Bad Boys.

(**- Analysis of one year's top 5 FTA may not make the argument airtight, but here's top 5/FTA in 1978-79: Free, Malone (HOF), George McGinnis, Cedric Maxwell, and Drew; here's 1988-89: Karl Malone, Barkley, Jordan, Moses Malone, and Hakeem, all HoFers)

Here's another set of data: in 1977, Dr. J led the NBA in playoff FTA with 7.05 per game (134 in 19 games; in 1978, Dennis Johnson led with 7.22 FTA per playoff game (159/22 games); in 1979, it was Elvin Hayes with 6.84 FTA per playoff game (130/19 games).

In 1987, Bird led the league with 8.39 FTA per playoff game (193 FTA in 23 games); in 1988, it was Adrian Dantley with 7.73 FTA per playoff game (178/23 games); in 1989, it was Jordan with 13.47 FTA per playoff game (229/17 games).

In 2007, LBJ led with 9.8 FTA per playoff game (196/20 games); in 2008, it was Kobe with 9.23 (194/21 games); and currently LBJ leads with 14.5 FTA (188/13 games).

Weighted averages among the leaders: 1977-79 = 7.05 FTA per playoff game; 1987-89 = 9.52 FTA per playoff game; and in 2007-09 = 10.70 FTA per playoff game.

But by focusing on stars, and protecting them around the basket, the NBA turned into a multiple-rule league: one set of rules for regular season; and one for the playoffs had long been established. But by allowing stars to roam free -- and rewarding them with trips to the line, the NBA went down the road of creating "stars" and rewarding them. The trend has continued to the present day with the ultimate peak (nadir?) being reached in the 2006 Finals, when Deee-wayne Wade put the refs in his Fave Five with 97 FTA in the 6 game Finals.

So while getting refs younger or more in shape or less subject to home crowds may help alleviate some of the criticism that the calls are getting throughout the Internets, its also true that the double-standard has yet to be addressed, and is argubly getting worse.

So it wasn't just that LBJ got bailed out at the end of regulation in Game Four in Orlando; it's that he knew he would.

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No. -- er rather -- No 18

Bad news out of Waltham this afternoon: Kevin Garnett is being "shut down" for the rest of the regular season.

While shutting down Manny became an integral, and annual, part of the Red Sox stretch drive, it's a different story in basketball. Teams should be peaking at this time of year, as the Spurs have made into an art form (e.g., in 2006-7, they started 24-11, but closed 16-3 before losing their last three (meaningless) games, and won the NBA Championship.)

The Celts were blessed with a relatively injury-free 2007-08, and the Big Three (Paul Pierce (then 30), Garnett (31), Ray Allen (32)) played 80, 71, and 73 games, respectively. And each logged close to 1,000 minutes in the playoffs.

But at those ages -- ancient in NBA-years -- and load-levels, injuries are part of the game. While Pierce and Allen have played 75 and 74 games respectively, Garnett will have missed a quarter of season; he has also been playing limited minutes for the past few weeks, so his 'game' totals are somewhat inflated.

And that assumes he returns full strength when the Playoffs start.

The Cs got by the Cavaliers last year thanks to hot-shooting and home (court) cooking. This year, the road to the NBA Finals goes through the Quicken Loan Arena.

It's beginning to feel like 1964 all over again.

The Mouse That Roared (pt 2)

The bubble tightened a little bit for a number of BCS teams with Cleveland State's win over Butler in the Horizon League final.

Cleveland State heads back to the NCAA for the first time since 1986. You may remember that team. Bob Knight sure does.

And so does John Feinstein.

Never a Doubt

Despite

(a) a slow start in a 'must-win' game (the Celtics scored 18 points in the first quarter, and went the first 4 minutes of the second quarter with only 2 points, meaning that they had played -- including the fourth quarter on Monday -- 28 minutes with just 32 points);

(b) letting the 'Ace of Spades' out the box he had been for the first four games of the Series (LBJ had 23 points in the first 20 minutes last night, finishing with 35);
and

(c) a quiet crowd that was potentially watching the last home game of the season;

the Celtics responded with a kick in the second quarter and the first half of the third, and despite a brutal last 90 seconds, held on to win a tight 96-89 game.

Doc Rivers, who has become a (the?) focal point of fans' with the "Big 3", earns some credit for last night as well:

(a) playing Rajon Rondo 42 minutes -- meaning that Sam-I-Am Cassell played just five. Although Eddie House is the proverbial scoring-guard-in-a-point-guard's-body, Cassell has become such a liability at both ends of the floor that Doc has to find a way to get House back in the rotation. Failing that, leaving Rondo out there until he collapses is a good second choice.

(b) getting quality minutes out of Glen Davis (6 points). Although Davis was just +2 on the +/- rating, he brought some energy and enthusiasm to the court during his 11+ minutes. His attitude seems contagious on the bench and with the crowd.

Now, it's on to Cleveland, and (with luck) a finish to a very dangerous series.

Crunch Time 2

The Answer? James Posey plus (surprise) Kendrick Perkins playing free safety in the last 12 seconds of a 2-point game.

But while the coverage "worked" last night -- in the sense that LeBron (on his way to a 2-18 shooting 'performance') -- missed the driving layup, the fact remains that LBJ got by Posey (who was actually trying to 'give' a foul) fairly easily. Don't expect many more blown layups at crunch time from James.

Doc Rivers and Tom Thibodou may have felt that KG is more valuable to scoop up a defensive rebound, rather than send him on the double team. But nothing that was seen last night should give Celtics fans any consolation that Posey-plus-Perkins can keep James in check.

Proven?

The Celts advanced past the Hawks yesterday afternoon, in a smoky, raucous Garden that brought back memories of the Forum, if not the old Boston Madison Square Gahh-den.

If you watched only the games in Boston, you would think that the Hawks might play 100 games without winning one; the margins of victory were 23 (Game 1), 19 (Game 2), 25 (Game 5), and 34 (Game 7). As impressive, the Hawks shooting percentages were 38.2%, 38.3%, 40.6%, and yesterday, an unbelievable 29.3%.

But of course, not all the games were played in Boston. And the Hawks -- at home -- proved that the Cs have vulnerability, especially to a slasher (like Joe Johnson).

Nor were the legs of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett helped by the 114 minutes (Allen and KG both went 40) on Friday and the 90 extra minutes (+/-30 each, even with resting almost all of the fourth quarter yesterday).

But with the ultimate slasher/scorer -- LeBron James -- looming on the horizon, and with a scant 48 hours between the win yesterday and Game One of the Cleveland series tomorrow, things won't get easier for the Celtics.

With the difficulties this team has had on the road so far, they had best stay 'on serve' at home this week.

Unbelievable Shot

Some are speculating that this shot is faked, but it's still pretty amazing...

And more credible than this:

A New Series?

The Cleveland Cavaliers appeared to be on the brink of defeat a few nights ago, leaving Detroit down 0-2, and apparently demoralized after two heart-breaking losses. But after two wins at home, the Cavs will return to the Motor City Thursday night with a chance to steal a game on Detroit's home floor.

There's no question that a LBJ coming-out party in the NBA Finals would be a win for th league, especially after the disaster of the Suns/Spurs series, and the quiet dismantling of the Jazz that the Spurs have embarked upon during the Western Conference finals.

If Donyell Marshall had made an open three at the end of Game One, or if either LBJ or Larry Hughes had been able to connect in the waning seconds of Game Two, the Cavs would be sitting in driver's seat. As it is, they have put the heat back on the Pistons.

But an NBA playoff series begins when one team loses a home game.

Off the Deck

Less than a day after the Bulls stunned the Pistons in Detroit, and less than 24 hours after the Suns won a must-must-win in San Antonio, the Nets rebounded from an atrocious Game Four finish by controlling Game Five from start to finish. Despite a 1-15 fourth quarter -- and an even more incredible 6 points -- the Nets nonetheless won convincingly.

Jason Kidd (8-14 FGs), Vince Carter (5-11), and Richard Jefferson (6-11) recovered, and moved the pressure from themselves to the Cavaliers. If the Cavs can't close New Jersey out on Friday, you will be able to cut the pressure on Sunday in the Quicken Arena with a knife.

Vin-Sanity

Sure, Vince Carter will take the heat for the Nets' last possession last night in Game Four, where double-team from Larry Hughes forced Carter to panic and, eventually, knock the ball out-of-bounds. But it wasn't just the last-second failures - it was the forced pass to Mikki Moore with 0:46 seconds left (eventually leading to a jump ball won by the Cavaliers), and the 6-23 overall shooting that killed the Nets. (Of course, Carter's partners-in-crime included Jason Kidd (2-13 shooting) and Richard Jefferson (3-12).)

While Carter did make 5-6 clutch foul shots in the last two minutes, it seems unlikely that the Nets can climb out of a 1-3 deficit with the series heading back to Cleveland. LeBron James will be headed to his first Conference Finals, where as they were a year ago, the Pistons seems likely to be the obstacle.