Why No Talk of Suspension?

After turning the ball over in the third quarter of Saturday night's game, a perhaps frustrated Dwayne Wade of the Heat proceeded to (i) grab Rajon Rondo and (ii) swing his legs under him, while throwing Rondo to the ground. It's Rondo's dislocated elbow that has gotten all the attention (with the video -- rated at least PG-13 -- here.)

Rondo got hurt on the play. Although he came back into the game, it's unclear whether he will be able to play tonight, in an important Game Four, and his one-armed effectiveness is definitely at issue.

Was Wade intended to hurt Rondo? It's clear that he intended to foul the Boston point guard, mostly like to prevent the kind of break-away that occurred later (after Rondo returned) off of a comatose Chris Bosh. (Although as Jeff Van Gundy notes on the telecast "the ball was already out of bounds.")

Moreover, it was not Wade's first foul, nor first overtly-aggressive play of the day, or the series.

In addition, the Heat themselves, doth protest too much after the game. Here's Wade: "We play this game as competitors..You never want to see anyone get hurt, no matter what it is, what kind of injury it is. Kudos for him for coming back." (emphasis added)

Wade yesterday: “It’s a physical game, the game of basketball is a physical game. I’m not a dirty player, it’s physical. Everyone falls to the ground, everyone gets hurt, people get up.”

Here's teammate LeBron James: "You definitehttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifly don’t want to see anyone have freak injuries. The competitors that we all are, us against Boston, you definitely don’t want to see nothing like that happen. Injuries aside, you hope the best for him. You hope that it’s not as bad as it looked. You hope it’s not something that affects him long term."

Finally, Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra: “I’m not answering questions about that. I’m done with that. Moving on....It looked like a normal contact foul...[Rondo] just landed on it wrong. Those things happen. There was a lot of contact. Some of the plays were a lot more physical than that, where guys didn’t get hurt. Those are tough plays."

No flagrant foul was called on the play by the officials at the game. However, the NBA rule book permits the League Office to post-facto assess fouls as "Flagrant-1" or "Flagrant-2" fouls after the fact, making its assessment on factors including:

1. The severity of the contact;

2. Whether or not the player was making a legitimate basketball play (e.g., whether a player is making a legitimate effort to block a shot; note, however, that a foul committed during a block attempt can still be considered flagrant if other criteria are present such as recklessness and hard contact to the head);

3. Whether, on a foul committed with a player's arm or hand, the fouling player wound up and/or followed through after making contact;

4. The potential for injury resulting from contact (e.g., a blow to the head and a foul committed while a player is in a vulnerable position);

5. The severity of any injury suffered by the offended player; and

6. The outcome of the contact (e.g., whether it led to an altercation).

In the NHL, the players on the ice would tell an observer whether the foul (or hit, in hockey) was seen as a clean but unfortunate injury, or something more sinishttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifter. In baseball, we'd know the next time Wade came to the plate.

With no fighting, no beanballs, and no true enforcers in a post-Pacers NBA, the retribution -- if required by the Code of the Game -- will be more subtle. Celtics Coach Doc Rivers, perhaps already anticipating a tough-guy response from some of his players (mostly likely Kevin Garnett), tried to defuse the tension: "I don’t know if it was a hard foul...Let’s put it like this: He didn’t intend to hurt Rondo. I don’t honestly believe that 99 percent of cases in our league that the player ever intends to hurt anybody but he did. It just happens."

Notwithstanding Doc, watch what happens when Wade goes to hole tonight.

This series is about to get a lot more physical.

When Amazing Happens from 15 Feet

The NBA's playoff ad campaign is brilliant: a pianist plays stark thirds, an empty basketball court and arena slowly (thanks to a reverse-CGI) filled to life with Kobe to Shaq...Bird's steal...Magic's Junior Sky-hook.

There's one other "Amazing" highlight that brings the NBA's past to its future: Dr. J's swoop. For NBA fans of a certain age, it defined all that basketball could be -- power, mid-air acrobatics, and grace. That moment was seared -- thanks to countless replays -- on the mind of millions.

But who saw it live? Only the 18,000 or so in Philadelphia's Spectrum who were in attendance for Game Four of the 1980 Finals. For everyone else, the 1980 Finals were consigned to late night television -- speaking of amazing -- on 'tape delay.'

The NBA of the late 1970s was a much different league than the one declared "Fannnn-tastic" just a few years later. It was a league that had gone through the 1970s built on terrific teams (the post-Russell Celtics, Knicks, and Lakers in the first half of the decade, the immortal Blazers in 1977), but after the ABA merger, it was a with little defense, little charisma, and little fan support (the 1979-80 Lakers drew 582,882, good for 3rd in the League; the Lakers this season drew 778,877, a 33% increase in numbers, good for 8th in the League.)

But presented with two well-known (thanks to the 1979 NCAA Final) and marketable stars -- Magic and Bird -- the NBA turned to a star-based system. The teams became identified by single players, and thanks to the leadership of the two most prominent; renewed interest in college basketball created interest in the pro game, culminating with the 1984 draft (3 of the top 5 players were eventual Hall of Famers, highlighted by His Airness, and the other was Sam Perkins, who played in 1286 games(*)) and interest and attendance spiked, from 450,331 (10,983 per game) in 1979-80 to 641,616 (15,649 per game) ten years later.

(*-While NBA games played is not the only measure of a player to be sure, it's more games than every player drafted at #4 from 1985 to 1994 (Rasheed Wallace was the #4 in 1995, and he's still active. Inserting footnotes in the text -- Hat tip to Joe Pos.)

But as teams -- and marketing campaigns -- were built around stars, the league had to make some tricky choices. Fans came out to the stadium to see Michael, Dominique, and Isiah, and it wasn't doing anyone any good to see them on the bench with foul trouble.

More important -- and more ominous for the integrity of refereeing -- stars became subject to kid glove treatment. In 1979-80, the top five in free throws attempted were Moses Malone (#1), World B. Free, Dan Issel, John Drew, and Reggie Theus. Malone and Issel were legitimate stars (both are in the Hall of Fame), but the other three were good, but not great players who played in a total of 5 All-Star Games.

Contrast with 1989-90, where the top five in FTA is dominated by Hall of Famers (Karl Malone, David Robinson, the Chuckster, Jordan and Patrick Ewing.)(**) FTA per game were also up slightly during the period, from 56 per game in 1979-80 to 57 per game in 1989-90, although defenses were becoming more physical in the era of the Detroit Bad Boys.

(**- Analysis of one year's top 5 FTA may not make the argument airtight, but here's top 5/FTA in 1978-79: Free, Malone (HOF), George McGinnis, Cedric Maxwell, and Drew; here's 1988-89: Karl Malone, Barkley, Jordan, Moses Malone, and Hakeem, all HoFers)

Here's another set of data: in 1977, Dr. J led the NBA in playoff FTA with 7.05 per game (134 in 19 games; in 1978, Dennis Johnson led with 7.22 FTA per playoff game (159/22 games); in 1979, it was Elvin Hayes with 6.84 FTA per playoff game (130/19 games).

In 1987, Bird led the league with 8.39 FTA per playoff game (193 FTA in 23 games); in 1988, it was Adrian Dantley with 7.73 FTA per playoff game (178/23 games); in 1989, it was Jordan with 13.47 FTA per playoff game (229/17 games).

In 2007, LBJ led with 9.8 FTA per playoff game (196/20 games); in 2008, it was Kobe with 9.23 (194/21 games); and currently LBJ leads with 14.5 FTA (188/13 games).

Weighted averages among the leaders: 1977-79 = 7.05 FTA per playoff game; 1987-89 = 9.52 FTA per playoff game; and in 2007-09 = 10.70 FTA per playoff game.

But by focusing on stars, and protecting them around the basket, the NBA turned into a multiple-rule league: one set of rules for regular season; and one for the playoffs had long been established. But by allowing stars to roam free -- and rewarding them with trips to the line, the NBA went down the road of creating "stars" and rewarding them. The trend has continued to the present day with the ultimate peak (nadir?) being reached in the 2006 Finals, when Deee-wayne Wade put the refs in his Fave Five with 97 FTA in the 6 game Finals.

So while getting refs younger or more in shape or less subject to home crowds may help alleviate some of the criticism that the calls are getting throughout the Internets, its also true that the double-standard has yet to be addressed, and is argubly getting worse.

So it wasn't just that LBJ got bailed out at the end of regulation in Game Four in Orlando; it's that he knew he would.

No. -- er rather -- No 18

Bad news out of Waltham this afternoon: Kevin Garnett is being "shut down" for the rest of the regular season.

While shutting down Manny became an integral, and annual, part of the Red Sox stretch drive, it's a different story in basketball. Teams should be peaking at this time of year, as the Spurs have made into an art form (e.g., in 2006-7, they started 24-11, but closed 16-3 before losing their last three (meaningless) games, and won the NBA Championship.)

The Celts were blessed with a relatively injury-free 2007-08, and the Big Three (Paul Pierce (then 30), Garnett (31), Ray Allen (32)) played 80, 71, and 73 games, respectively. And each logged close to 1,000 minutes in the playoffs.

But at those ages -- ancient in NBA-years -- and load-levels, injuries are part of the game. While Pierce and Allen have played 75 and 74 games respectively, Garnett will have missed a quarter of season; he has also been playing limited minutes for the past few weeks, so his 'game' totals are somewhat inflated.

And that assumes he returns full strength when the Playoffs start.

The Cs got by the Cavaliers last year thanks to hot-shooting and home (court) cooking. This year, the road to the NBA Finals goes through the Quicken Loan Arena.

It's beginning to feel like 1964 all over again.

Never a Doubt

Despite

(a) a slow start in a 'must-win' game (the Celtics scored 18 points in the first quarter, and went the first 4 minutes of the second quarter with only 2 points, meaning that they had played -- including the fourth quarter on Monday -- 28 minutes with just 32 points);

(b) letting the 'Ace of Spades' out the box he had been for the first four games of the Series (LBJ had 23 points in the first 20 minutes last night, finishing with 35);
and

(c) a quiet crowd that was potentially watching the last home game of the season;

the Celtics responded with a kick in the second quarter and the first half of the third, and despite a brutal last 90 seconds, held on to win a tight 96-89 game.

Doc Rivers, who has become a (the?) focal point of fans' with the "Big 3", earns some credit for last night as well:

(a) playing Rajon Rondo 42 minutes -- meaning that Sam-I-Am Cassell played just five. Although Eddie House is the proverbial scoring-guard-in-a-point-guard's-body, Cassell has become such a liability at both ends of the floor that Doc has to find a way to get House back in the rotation. Failing that, leaving Rondo out there until he collapses is a good second choice.

(b) getting quality minutes out of Glen Davis (6 points). Although Davis was just +2 on the +/- rating, he brought some energy and enthusiasm to the court during his 11+ minutes. His attitude seems contagious on the bench and with the crowd.

Now, it's on to Cleveland, and (with luck) a finish to a very dangerous series.

No Easy Buckets

What's wrong with the Celtics?

For the second series in a row, the Cs have left Boston with a 2-0 lead, only to return five days later facing a must-win Game 5 to retain home court advantage. The difference with the Atlanta series is that unlike Joe Johnson, who is a quality player with a chip on his shoulder when he plays Boston, LeBron James is the NBA's 'Ace of Spades' -- the best athlete on the floor who can dominate a game (and quite frankly, dominate the man trying to guard him -- Paul Pierce) even as he has shooting nights of 2-18, 6-24, 5-16, and 7-20.

Charles Barkley said it best, a few minutes after Game Four ended -- the Celtics can't get any easy baskets, and the Trio of KG, Pierce and Allen are all jump shooters. (Allen, after getting to the rim several times -- especially early in Game 7 -- has been an 'easy cover' so far this series for the defensively-challenged Wally Szczerbiak; and Wally has hurt the Celts at the offensive end, chipping in with points last night and answering Allen's 15.)

While the Celts are doing a good job stopping the Cleveland transition game, Boston's fast break points are few and far between; and with no fast break buckets, there are few chances for easy points or foul trouble for the opposition.

The trend lines are all bad right now for the Celtics: one of the oldest teams in the league, they have already logged 11 playoff games, and will need at least two more to get out of the second round. The rotation off the bench seems to be in disarray, with Doc Rivers going with Glen Davis, James Posey, Sam Cassell, P.J. Brown, and Pierce for the first 4 1/2 minutes of the fourth quarter last night. (That combination probably didn't play together all season, as Brown played only 208 total minutes for the Cs in 18 games; the combination was not among the 50 most efficient 5-man combos for the Celtics, according to NBA.com. By means of comparision, Cassell and Pierce played only 93 minutes -- about two full games -- together all season, and were +19 on the +/- rating.)

Could it all change with a resounding win at home on Wednesday and a stolen game in Cleveland on Friday night? Sure.

But right now, the Cs feel like a middle-of-the-road 52-win team that will do well do push the Pistons to six games in the Eastern Conference finals.

Everyone's favorite current Celt -- Kevin Garnett -- has pulled the franchise back to respectability with his effort on every possession of every game. But like another beloved player -- Ernie Banks -- right now, he seems destined never to play in his game's biggest stage, and to never raise a championship trophy.

Covering the 'Ace of Spades' at Crunch Time

Back in the good old days -- on April 10th before the Playoffs began -- Doc Rivers joked on WEEI that:

Whatever team has the 'Ace of Spades' is a tough team to play...meaning THE single best player in the series.(8:00 mark)

But what seemed like light banter in early April had become a gaping hole by May 1st, as the Celtics had a difficult time controlling a "Ace of Hearts" (a.k.a. Joe Johnson) in the Atlanta series.

Now, as the Cleveland series begins, the Cs have the challenge of neutralizing the single best player in the NBA: LeBron. A true "Ace of Spades."

Although Rivers and his staff will undoubtedly be stressing a team approach -- albeit with a double team undoubtedly part of the mix -- the fact is that whether its Paul Pierce or James Posey (the two most likely defensive matchups, given the current roster), LBJ has a huge physical (size and/or speed) advantage. In addition, with Pierce there is the added problem of losing his scoring, both because of fatigue and/or fouls, as occurred at the end of Game Six with Atlanta.

The other options: Ray or Tony Allen? Ray looked overmatched one-on-one against Johnson, and Tony played a total of 27 minutes in 6 games (one DNP-CD) against the Hawks.

So here's an unsolicited suggestion: rather than 'run' Garnett at LBJ on the double at crunch time, let KG play him. Not all the time, and not for 48 minutes.

But at crunch time. At the end of the game. When everyone in the building knows that LBJ will get the ball.

Can Garnett defend 25 feet from the basket? Will LeBron blow by him and get to the rim? Or will LBJ draw the other defenders and find an open man?

All of these are legitimate questions. But right now the Cs need answers. And throwing the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year on the league's best scorer (with all respect to Kobe) -- with a trip to the Conference finals on the line -- may be just what the Doc(tor) ordered.

Proven?

The Celts advanced past the Hawks yesterday afternoon, in a smoky, raucous Garden that brought back memories of the Forum, if not the old Boston Madison Square Gahh-den.

If you watched only the games in Boston, you would think that the Hawks might play 100 games without winning one; the margins of victory were 23 (Game 1), 19 (Game 2), 25 (Game 5), and 34 (Game 7). As impressive, the Hawks shooting percentages were 38.2%, 38.3%, 40.6%, and yesterday, an unbelievable 29.3%.

But of course, not all the games were played in Boston. And the Hawks -- at home -- proved that the Cs have vulnerability, especially to a slasher (like Joe Johnson).

Nor were the legs of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett helped by the 114 minutes (Allen and KG both went 40) on Friday and the 90 extra minutes (+/-30 each, even with resting almost all of the fourth quarter yesterday).

But with the ultimate slasher/scorer -- LeBron James -- looming on the horizon, and with a scant 48 hours between the win yesterday and Game One of the Cleveland series tomorrow, things won't get easier for the Celtics.

With the difficulties this team has had on the road so far, they had best stay 'on serve' at home this week.

Unbelievable Shot

Some are speculating that this shot is faked, but it's still pretty amazing...

And more credible than this:

A New Series?

The Cleveland Cavaliers appeared to be on the brink of defeat a few nights ago, leaving Detroit down 0-2, and apparently demoralized after two heart-breaking losses. But after two wins at home, the Cavs will return to the Motor City Thursday night with a chance to steal a game on Detroit's home floor.

There's no question that a LBJ coming-out party in the NBA Finals would be a win for th league, especially after the disaster of the Suns/Spurs series, and the quiet dismantling of the Jazz that the Spurs have embarked upon during the Western Conference finals.

If Donyell Marshall had made an open three at the end of Game One, or if either LBJ or Larry Hughes had been able to connect in the waning seconds of Game Two, the Cavs would be sitting in driver's seat. As it is, they have put the heat back on the Pistons.

But an NBA playoff series begins when one team loses a home game.

Vin-Sanity

Sure, Vince Carter will take the heat for the Nets' last possession last night in Game Four, where double-team from Larry Hughes forced Carter to panic and, eventually, knock the ball out-of-bounds. But it wasn't just the last-second failures - it was the forced pass to Mikki Moore with 0:46 seconds left (eventually leading to a jump ball won by the Cavaliers), and the 6-23 overall shooting that killed the Nets. (Of course, Carter's partners-in-crime included Jason Kidd (2-13 shooting) and Richard Jefferson (3-12).)

While Carter did make 5-6 clutch foul shots in the last two minutes, it seems unlikely that the Nets can climb out of a 1-3 deficit with the series heading back to Cleveland. LeBron James will be headed to his first Conference Finals, where as they were a year ago, the Pistons seems likely to be the obstacle.