...And at #25

(Note: AP is not a big NFL draft-nik, but tonight's event attracted attention, because of the range of opinions around Florida QB Tim Tebow.)

The Denver Broncos picked Tim Tebow in the first round -- at #25 -- well ahead of where almost every observer expected him to be.

On ESPN, Tom Jackson (a former Bronco himself) was literally speechless -- staring blankly into the camera in the moments after the pick was announced. Even ten minutes later (when he had presumably found his voice), Jackson was saying "it's a question whether he will ever play at all."

Mel Kiper Jr. blasted the pick on a talent basis, saying in effect, that even though he may be a great kid, the skill level is not high enough, and his (flawed) throwing motion will mean an unsuccessful NFL career.

Whether Tebow can be a Pro Bowl quarterback in the NFL is an open question. But it's pretty safe bet that Tebow will never be in an Associated Press story that contains the words: "Member of the Denver Broncos arrested early Sunday morning..."

Here's what Denver gets: a good all-around athlete (who, by the way, dominated the best football conference in the country in college), who is now playing with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove to every scout, GM, and fan who doubted him. There are worse combinations.

And there is this Inconvenient Truth: drafting a QB in the first round is clearly a crap-shoot. And if you don't believe that, here are the names of a few of the QBs selected in just the top three picks in the first round in the last dozen years:

Tim Couch
JaMarcus Russell
Ryan Leaf
Akili Smith
Joey Harrington

Ummm....oh, and the jury is still out on Vince Young, who was also a "top 3".

Could Tebow be a bust a #24?

Undoubtedly.

But will he be a worse choice than Leaf (#3 overall) or Russell (#1 overall) or the others in the List of Shame?

No.

The "best and the brightest" in the NFL came up with those choices. Generally, the experts (like Kiper) looooooooooved those picks when they were made. And all of them were busts that handicapped their respective franchises for years, if not close to a decade.

Which brings us to our point for all the so-called experts (which, ironically, involves another professional sports franchise):

If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.

Are You Ready for Some...College Football Playoff?

Head-Coach-Elect Barack Obama wants a college football playoff system. This Saturday he (and the rest of the country) will get a preview of what such a system would look like in the SEC Championship Game.

#1 (AP/BCS) Alabama plays #2(AP)/#4(BCS) Florida. The winner advances to the BCS title game.

Since a late September loss to surprising Ole Miss, Florida has been -- with all due respect to Oklahoma -- the hottest team in the country, winners of eight in a row.

Florida has rolled to a combined score of 414-97, although Coach Urban Meyer's team did roll up scores on Arkansas (5-7), Kentucky (6-6), Vandy (6-6), and The Citadel (4-8 in I-AA).

But if you just look at the four ranked teams in that eight game streak -- #4 (at the time) LSU, #6 Georgia, #25 South Carolina, and #20 Florida State, the Gators still rolled by a combined 201-52.

That's an average score -- against ranked opponents -- of 50-13.

Wonder if Coach Meyer ever regrets not taking the Notre Dame job?

College Football Preview and Countdown (Part VIII)

Back to the college football countdown:

#3 - University of Florida (currently #3 in the AP poll)

A year removed from the National Championship, the Gators seem to have re-loaded under Coach Urban Meyer. But before Coach Meyer, there was Gator football, Emmitt Smith-style:



Key Game(s): It's a good thing that the Gators reloaded, because the schedule is a killer. Beginning on Sept 15th (Tenn at home), Sept 22nd (@ Ole Miss), Sept 29th (Auburn at home), and finishing October 6th @ LSU. The backhalf of the schedule includes games @ Georgia (Oct. 27th), @ South Carolina (Nov. 10th), and finishing with Fla. State @ home (Nov. 24th). Throw in a likely trip to the SEC Championship game as the representative of the SEC East.

Oregon State Repeats

Although it did not engender the publicity of Florida's back-to-back titles in April, Oregon State won a second consecutive NCAA baseball title this evening, with a convincing 11-4, 9-3 set of wins in the Finals. UNC battled to get to the Finals for the second consecutive year, but OSU's close (they trailed for only one inning in their last five games -- a streak of 61 innings going into tonight's game -- played at the CWS)

(The above photo shows one of the few balls that OSU was unable to corral this evening -- a single over the head of OSU infielder Joey Wong.)