Monday, May 5, 2008

Covering the 'Ace of Spades' at Crunch Time

Back in the good old days -- on April 10th before the Playoffs began -- Doc Rivers joked on WEEI that:
Whatever team has the 'Ace of Spades' is a tough team to play...meaning THE single best player in the series.(8:00 mark)
But what seemed like light banter in early April had become a gaping hole by May 1st, as the Celtics had a difficult time controlling a "Ace of Hearts" (a.k.a. Joe Johnson) in the Atlanta series.

Now, as the Cleveland series begins, the Cs have the challenge of neutralizing the single best player in the NBA: LeBron. A true "Ace of Spades."

Although Rivers and his staff will undoubtedly be stressing a team approach -- albeit with a double team undoubtedly part of the mix -- the fact is that whether its Paul Pierce or James Posey (the two most likely defensive matchups, given the current roster), LBJ has a huge physical (size and/or speed) advantage. In addition, with Pierce there is the added problem of losing his scoring, both because of fatigue and/or fouls, as occurred at the end of Game Six with Atlanta.

The other options: Ray or Tony Allen? Ray looked overmatched one-on-one against Johnson, and Tony played a total of 27 minutes in 6 games (one DNP-CD) against the Hawks.

So here's an unsolicited suggestion: rather than 'run' Garnett at LBJ on the double at crunch time, let KG play him. Not all the time, and not for 48 minutes.

But at crunch time. At the end of the game. When everyone in the building knows that LBJ will get the ball.

Can Garnett defend 25 feet from the basket? Will LeBron blow by him and get to the rim? Or will LBJ draw the other defenders and find an open man?

All of these are legitimate questions. But right now the Cs need answers. And throwing the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year on the league's best scorer (with all respect to Kobe) -- with a trip to the Conference finals on the line -- may be just what the Doc(tor) ordered.

Proven?

The Celts advanced past the Hawks yesterday afternoon, in a smoky, raucous Garden that brought back memories of the Forum, if not the old Boston Madison Square Gahh-den.

If you watched only the games in Boston, you would think that the Hawks might play 100 games without winning one; the margins of victory were 23 (Game 1), 19 (Game 2), 25 (Game 5), and 34 (Game 7). As impressive, the Hawks shooting percentages were 38.2%, 38.3%, 40.6%, and yesterday, an unbelievable 29.3%.

But of course, not all the games were played in Boston. And the Hawks -- at home -- proved that the Cs have vulnerability, especially to a slasher (like Joe Johnson).

Nor were the legs of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett helped by the 114 minutes (Allen and KG both went 40) on Friday and the 90 extra minutes (+/-30 each, even with resting almost all of the fourth quarter yesterday).

But with the ultimate slasher/scorer -- LeBron James -- looming on the horizon, and with a scant 48 hours between the win yesterday and Game One of the Cleveland series tomorrow, things won't get easier for the Celtics.

With the difficulties this team has had on the road so far, they had best stay 'on serve' at home this week.

Friday, May 2, 2008

Bye-Bye in Big D

For the second year in a row, the Dallas Mavericks were eliminated in the first round. But unlike a year ago, when Golden State shocked the Mavs, this year it was a quiet 4-1 loss to the resurgent New Orleans Hornets.

The immediate casualty was, as predicted here, Coach Avery Johnson; but GM Donn Nelson may also be feeling the heat.

Just before the trading deadline, the main Western Conference contenders all 'armed up' by acquiring missing pieces: Kyle Korver to the Jazz (12/29/2007), Pau Gausol to the Lakers (2/1/2008), and Shaq Fu to PHX (2/7/2008).

Dallas was the last to 'respond', and had a lot of trouble getting the Jason Kidd deal done; in the end, Kidd was not the piece that Nelson (and others) felt that he would be, and the Mavs now have to rethink their future.

53 weeks ago, the Mavs were coming off an NBA Finals appearance (where they might have won), had the best record in the League (67-15), and were a leading contender for the NBA title. The leading question was whether Mark Cuban could keep a straight face as David Stern was handing him the Lawrence O'Brien trophy.

Today, after a mediocre 51-31 season, with another first round exit and the salary cap a distant memory, the Mavs may be out of options.

Monday, April 28, 2008

No Country for Old Men

All last year, the Patriots' offensive line was celebrated as it offered 'max protection' for Tom Brady. Brady ended up being sacked on 3.51% of his passing attempts, good for 6th in the league.

But the space of 15 minutes in the first quarter of the Super Bowl, the Pats line turned 'old' as Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora got outside the NE tackles and knocked Brady out of rhythm.

Celtics fans rejoiced last summer, when GM Danny Ainge acquired -- in separate deals -- Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, multiple All-Star and likely Hall-of-Famers.

The Celtics cruised through the regular season, and won the first two games in the first round of the NBA playoffs over the Atlanta Hawks. But after two easy wins in Boston, the scene shifted to Atlanta.

And the Southern cooking went over well for the young Hawks. They bounced back on Saturday night with a 102-93 win, but everyone expected a different story tonight.

In tonight's game, the veteran Cs jumped to an early lead, as expected. But the lead stalled out in the first quarter as the offense settled for three pointers. After the Hawks climbed back, the Cs then went on another run to push the lead to 73-63 with 1:45 left in the third quarter.

In the fourth, Atlanta coach Mike Woodson simplified the playbook by turning the ball over to Atlanta's Joe Johnson, who lit up the Cs for 20 in the final quarter. Johnson played all but 2 minutes of the game, and coupled with active bodies like Josh Smith and Al Horford, they challenged Garnett on the boards on both ends of the floor.

The Cs do retain home court advantage, and return to Boston for Wednesday night's Game Five. But the inability to control Johnson, and to control the glass, raises serious questions about the future of this Celtics team. And unlike the Hawks, who start three young players (Smith, Horford, and Marvin Williams), for the Celtics, the future is now.

Sunday, April 27, 2008

3-1

Before the NBA Playoffs began, the marquee first-round matchup was undoubtedly the Suns-Spurs. With the history of the series a year ago, the Tim Donaghy scandal, and the all-in trade for Shaq this winter, there was every indication that this would be another classic.

But when the Spurs jumped out to a 2-0 lead at home, followed by a desultory Suns effort in Game 3, the only question was whether the Suns experiment had imploaded spectularly.

Now after the kind of effort that, frankly, have occurred in Game Three, the Suns are showing a pulse. As the Red Sox famously showed, 0-3 is not impossible (although it has not occurred in the NBA), and the defensive changes, together with the (re-)emergence of Boris Diaw (and the subsequent control of Tony Parker), means that if the Spurs don't win Game Five, the pressure starts to mount.

The other team that gambled to 'win now' -- the Dallas Mavericks -- are also looking into the abyss, and it appears that the Avery Johnson era may be coming to end in the Big D.