It's Time for the Feats of Strength

As we await results from Ohio and Texas, the mood among the "Gang of 500" is that the Clinton Machine has found its footing. She has held an "Airing of the Grievances" against the press, and now it's time for her to win the feats of strengths (a.k.a. the Texas Primary (not the Texas Caucus) and Ohio Primary.)

If Clinton can win both states, preferably impressively, the new MSM line has it, she can turn this race around and restore order in the universe.

The reality is that Hillary will wake up tomorrow either (i) facing calls for her to get out of the race (in the worse case, if the polls turn against her), or (ii) facing a virtually insurmountable deficit of 125-150 pledged delegates. Assuming that ratio holds, Hillary will end the primary contests with about 1,552 pledged delegates to Obama's 1,702.(*)

Her only realistic chance to the nomination is to swing close to 500 of the 795 super delegates (or 59.4%) to her side.

How can she do it? Not by competing in every state.

Like in 1960, the remainder of this primary battle (if it goes past tonight) will be fought on 'battleground' states where the Clintons will perform, as the saying goes, additional 'Feats of Strength.'

(In the 1960 primaries, Kennedy was not challenged in every state, but rather a select few, like Wisconsin and West Virginia. By winning those specific battles, JFK was able to convince the other appointed (i.e., super) delegates that he would be the strongest national candidate. In the years since 1960, the Democratic nomination has approached a marathon of states, culminating in 1992 when Bill Clinton bled Paul Tsongas dry over the spring primaries. In 2000 and 2004, the party effectively short-circuited the lengthy primary process by declaring the winner of the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary, effectively, the nominee.)

The balance of this calendar this month is Wyoming (caucuses on March 8th) and Mississippi (primary on March 11th), with nothing thereafter until April 22nd (Pennsylvania).

With such a sparse calendar, and with Obama having historical advantages in caucuses and primaries in the South, Hillary will likely 'shut down' if she survives tonight, picking Pennsylvania as her next battleground.

Happy Festivus.

(*)- Delegate estimates calculated as follows:
(1) 4,049 total delegates minus 795 superdelegates = 3,254 pledged delegates.
(2) Splitting the balance of the 3,254 pledged delegates (based on proportional apportionment) such that Obama maintains his 150 delegate lead would result in 1702 pledged delegates for Obama, and 1,552 pledged delegates for Hillary.
(3) In order to get to 2,025, Hillary would need 473 of the 795 supers, or 59.4%.

Oswald's Ghost

Coincidentally, at the same time the Obama/Kennedy connection is being played out on the cable channels, "Oswald's Ghost", a new documentary on PBS, explores the growth of the various 'conspiracy theories' that developed shortly after the events of November 22nd. It's hard to have a new take on the events in Dallas, but filmmaker Robert Stone focused on how the theories developed, rather than which one is most realistic.

Or perhaps not.

The Kennedy Legacy and the Gopher State

The last 48 hours have been an interesting time to think about the role of the Kennedy legacy in Democratic politics. Beginning with Caroline Kennedy's endorsement in the New York Times (which captured more press interest than the endorsement of the Times editorial board itself), and followed up by an endorsement by Senator Ted Kennedy, who stands as the symbol of the 'Democratic wing of the Democratic party,' it's been a great weekend for Barack Obama.

And Kennedy will undoubtedly be valuable to Obama in Latino barrios, in union halls, and among old-school liberals. After all, his endorsement of Al Gore in 2000, and his series of stemwinders in union halls in Iowa, was key in that caucus. His help -- in both staff and 'gravitas' -- to John Kerry helped steady that ship during the rough waters in late 2003.

But what Ted Kennedy's endorsement may signal is more subtle: that other superdelegates should 'hold on' in case this race is not clearly settled on February 5th. In such case, the race may go on to Maryland, Virginia, Ohio and other states, and if no single candidate can achieve a majority of delegates, the role of the "supers" may be increased. (The role for John Edwards, to the degree he can continue to accumulate delegates and prevent any other candidate from achieving a majority, is similar.)

Hillary's greatest source of strength (as this is written) is her large leads in the vast majority of Super-Tuesday-states. It is becoming clear that where Obama can set up shop and campaign (Iowa, NH, Nevada, and South Carolina), he can compete with the inherent Clinton advantages. Unfortunately, he has to try do the same across 20 states simultaneously between now and next Tuesday.

The categorical rejection by the voters of South Carolina of the 'old style' politics -- slash-and-burn, distortions, and personal attacks -- does not bode well for the Clinton future. After all, the 1992 campaign was defined by the Clinton "War Room", where these tactics were perfected -- at least on the Democratic side (until Karl Rove expanded micro-targetting to new levels.)

Bill Clinton famously analogized the results in SC to those of 1984, where Jesse Jackson won. Like Walter Mondale in 1984, Hillary seems to be a vestige of an older age, and one the country has passed by; she may be able to hold on to the majority of delegates on Super Tuesday, but she does not seem to embody the future.

But a better analogy is Obama to RFK, who brought a new coalition together for a few short weeks in 1968. And Hillary is certainly no "Happy Warrior."

Obama and JFK

In response to Hillary's 'false hopes' criticism in Saturday night's debate, Senator Barack Obama responded that others -- including JFK's call to 'put a man on the moon before the decade [of the 1960s] is out" -- were also 'just words' but words that inspired millions.

Hillary responded again yesterday, but telling Obama, in effect, that 'he is no JFK':

You know, today Senator Obama used President John F. Kennedy and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. to criticize me. He basically compared himself to our greatest heroes because they gave great speeches.

President Kennedy was in Congress for 14 years. He was a war hero. He was a man of great accomplishments and readiness to be president...

In fact, one of the toughest criticisms that JFK faced in the 1960 election (in the general election against Nixon) was that he was unprepared to lead. His Congressional record was relatively undistinguished, and even after 1956 (when he campaigned for the brokered Vice-Presidential slot at the National Convention) he was not involved in landmark legislation.

JFK's responded in the Convention Speech in Los Angeles:

My call is to the young in heart, regardless of age--to all who respond to the Scriptural call: 'Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed.'

For courage--not complacency--is our need today--leadership--not salesmanship. And the only valid test of leadership is the ability to lead, and lead vigorously.(*)

Almost 50 years later, those words still resonate.

(*-Note that the text of the speech as delivered is slightly different: "My call is to the young in heart, regardless of age; to the young in spirit, regardless of political party --to all who respond to the Scriptural call: 'Be strong and of good courage; be not afraid, neither be dismayed.')

(Go to 6:00 minute mark of clip)