Tebowmania = $$$

Amid all the talk of "coincidences" relating Tim Tebow to the Bible verse that he has worn as eyeblack, John 3:16 (he threw for 316 yards vs the Steelers, 31.6 yards/completion was the highest in NFL playoff history, Ben Roethlisberger threw the game's lone interception on 3rd and 16), the one number that stands out is the game's TV rating for the final quarter-hour: 31.6.

It was the most watched NFL Wild Card game in almost a quarter-century, drawing 41.9 million viewers. By way of contrast, the record for a NFL Divisional Game is 43.5 million (Jets/Pats last year) and 111 million people watched last year's thrilling Super Bowl game between the Packers and Steelers.

Given that Tebow's 80-yard TD pass in OT on Sunday was the most Twittered, non-Japanese, event in history and Tebowmania is back in full effect, how many people are going to watch this Saturday night's tussle between the Denver Tebows and the Patriots? 50 million? 60 million?

All I know is that CBS executives did not foresee this happening when they ended up re-entering the NFL market in 1998 (after a 4-year hiatus) with the supposedly inferior AFC after losing the NFC to Fox in 1994. But come Saturday night, they sure will be happy they did.

The "Secret" Site of NFL Talks is... Allerton Point

AP would be remiss not to mention that the latest round of the "secret" NFL/NFLPA talks have been taking place in Hull, MA, at the Nantasket Beach Resort, which itselhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.giff is a quick jog down Nantasket Ave. to Point Allerton.

...And at #25

(Note: AP is not a big NFL draft-nik, but tonight's event attracted attention, because of the range of opinions around Florida QB Tim Tebow.)

The Denver Broncos picked Tim Tebow in the first round -- at #25 -- well ahead of where almost every observer expected him to be.

On ESPN, Tom Jackson (a former Bronco himself) was literally speechless -- staring blankly into the camera in the moments after the pick was announced. Even ten minutes later (when he had presumably found his voice), Jackson was saying "it's a question whether he will ever play at all."

Mel Kiper Jr. blasted the pick on a talent basis, saying in effect, that even though he may be a great kid, the skill level is not high enough, and his (flawed) throwing motion will mean an unsuccessful NFL career.

Whether Tebow can be a Pro Bowl quarterback in the NFL is an open question. But it's pretty safe bet that Tebow will never be in an Associated Press story that contains the words: "Member of the Denver Broncos arrested early Sunday morning..."

Here's what Denver gets: a good all-around athlete (who, by the way, dominated the best football conference in the country in college), who is now playing with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove to every scout, GM, and fan who doubted him. There are worse combinations.

And there is this Inconvenient Truth: drafting a QB in the first round is clearly a crap-shoot. And if you don't believe that, here are the names of a few of the QBs selected in just the top three picks in the first round in the last dozen years:

Tim Couch
JaMarcus Russell
Ryan Leaf
Akili Smith
Joey Harrington

Ummm....oh, and the jury is still out on Vince Young, who was also a "top 3".

Could Tebow be a bust a #24?

Undoubtedly.

But will he be a worse choice than Leaf (#3 overall) or Russell (#1 overall) or the others in the List of Shame?

No.

The "best and the brightest" in the NFL came up with those choices. Generally, the experts (like Kiper) looooooooooved those picks when they were made. And all of them were busts that handicapped their respective franchises for years, if not close to a decade.

Which brings us to our point for all the so-called experts (which, ironically, involves another professional sports franchise):

If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.

Holiday Traditions

Holiday traditions take years to develop. Turkey, pumpkin pie, and the Detroit Lions have meant "Thanksgiving Day" for millions of Americans.

Christmas Day has long been the NBA's showcase, although never totally obscuring presents, tinsel, and Santa Claus. This past Christmas, the NBA upped the ante by offering almost a full day of games, including Heat/Knicks, Celtics/Magic, Clippers/Suns, and Nuggets/Blazers. And the highlight of the day was the defending champion Lakers hosting King James and the Cavs.

The NHL has taken ownership of New Years Day with its Winter Classic, played this afternoon at the historic park at the Fens. The third Classic is a regular league game played on an unusual surface - the irregular ice of an outside rink. And it seems that the NHL has found a marketing jackpot and put it's product into the national consciousness.

But another sport used to own New Years: College Football. The old Bowl system meant wall-to-wall games, and with a "mythical" national championship at stake, oftentimes three or even four games were "must-see" TV. Starting with the first BCS Championship Game in January 1999, college football has devalued its (erstwhile) signature day, and most (if not all) of the top-5 teams do not play at all on January 1st. (The most competitive game - on paper - is the Sugar Bowl featuring #5 Florida and #4 Cincy. The most compelling (non-championship game is the Fiesta Bowl with #6 Boise State vs. #3 TCU).

There are plenty of problems with the current BCS system - including 3 undefeated teams this year, including one for sure (the BSU/TCU winner) who will be unbeaten at the end of the year. But giving up "ownership" of a National holiday is another issue that the NHL - for one -isn't complaining about.

Understanding the Risks

Arizona Cardinals WR Sean Morey admitted that he played last week despite still suffering the aftereffects of a concussion. While such news would normally fall under the category of "dog-bites-man" in the NFL, there is one surprising fact.

Last month Morey was named Co-Chair of the NFL Players Association (NFLPA) Concussion and Traumatic Brain Injury Committee. His Co-Chair is a doctor, the Medical Director of the NFLPA.

A Breakout Season for Dementia

The 'epidemic' of head injuries among athletes may be turning a corner, as in the last ten days, the issue has broken through in the public consciousness:

* Malcolm Gladwell used his high profile column in the New Yorker to analogize the NFL to dog fighting (and somewhere, Michael Vick laughs. Or cries.) Gladwell also narrated a slideshow that provides graphic evidence of the effect that the sport has on brains.

* Last week, Congressman John Conyers held hearings on the effects of concussions and the NFL's response to them. Among the people testifying: NFL Commission Roger Goddell, and SLI representatives including Dr. Robert Cantu, Dr. Ann McKee, and Chris Nowinski.

* On Deadspin, a prominent sports blog, Michael Oriard, a former Notre Dame and Chiefs offensive lineman wrote about his own concussion history -- and perhaps a warning of its future:

One of Roger Goodell's worst nightmares has to be the possibility that football will come to be regarded as boxing is today: a potential and very violent path to celebrity and wealth that only the most economically desperate would consider and that the vast majority of Americans find unpalatable.

We need much more research — on large number of former players, over a long period of time — to know just how dangerous football is to the human brain. Knowing the answer might be a blow not only to the NFL but to all lovers of football. But continuing to not know might be considerably more painful for those who play the game.

(Disclosure: Sports Legacy Institute (SLI) is a client of Henshon Parker, LLP)

The NFL Edges Closer to Dementia

Today's NY Times reported on a long-awaited NFL-commissioned study on the prevelance of dementia (and other forms of illness, such as kidney and prostate problems, heart attacks, and ulcers). Randomly calling former players who were in the League for at least three seasons, the study's preliminary findings indicate that dementia and other memory-related illnesses were running close to 5 times expected rates.

HPLLP client(*) Sports Legacy Institute has been long at the forefront of the connection between multiple concussions and memory-related illnesses, including Alzheimer's. The NFL has been 'slow-walking' a response pending the results of the study reported today.

Now with data in hand, the pace of addressing the concussion problem -- both for professional athletes and (perhaps more importantly) for youth and college sports -- may increase.

(*) - HPLLP advised SLI in its partnership with the Boston University School of Medicine.

Sports = Entertainment

From the dawn of history, professional sports was always co-existed with the "entertainment world."

Babe Ruth was either traded so that Harry Frazee could -- or could not -- finance "No, No Nanette." The Celtics usually have a long West Coast road trip in mid-February, so that travelling shows (currently "Disney on Ice") can use the Garden.

But it has only been in the past few decades that sports has morphed into entertainment. Red Auerbach, who was a link to the original NBA of the 1940s, refused to allow danceteams or other "modern" entertainment at the Garden. In 2004, he said: "They're just waiting for me to die so they can get cheerleaders."

(The Celtic Dancers are in their third year, beginning the first season after Red's passing.)

But the point of this post is not to complain about the post-modern "Fan Experience."

Rather, when Big-Time Sports began competing directly for the American consumer's entertainment dollar, a Rubicon was crossed.

Sports heroes have become treated like celebrities, been paid like celebrities, and begun living their lives like celebrities. Salaries followed.

But there's a difference between sports and pure entertainment: we don't care what entertainers have to do to stay at the top.

If Madonna needs a little help to stave off the next generation of teeny-boppers, no one cares. Sure, it's fuel for the tabloids and gossip pages, but no one cares. Her music either sells or it doesn't; in fact, we don't even care what 'post-production' needs to be done on the album to improve her voice.

And it's not just music -- body doubles abound in Hollywood: Julia Roberts got help from a body double in Pretty Woman. Halle Berry has received "double" help from Barbara Alexandre. And of course stunt men -- while being replaced by CGI in recent years -- have been around since the days of Eisenstein.

There's no pretext in show biz -- the entertainment is entertaining. If it's not, we won't watch, and don't care. And if the Big Star needs a little help -- from a surgeon, or a strength coach, or a teleprompter, or even a little pick-me-up in the morning, we don't see it, and we don't care.

But sports is -- or was -- different.

The competitive aspect of sports is what made it compelling. Could one athlete outtrain, outwork, or outlast their opponent?

We measure athletic achievements, both to separate them from one another, but also to show the separation from mere mortals.

The compelling images from our childhood are of superhuman achievement: Dr. J dunking from the foul line. Kirk Gibson limping to the plate, then fist-pumping around the bases. Michael Jordan ripping the heart out of the City of Cleveland.

What does it mean for our children's memories?

Jerry Seinfeld once famously summarized modern sports as follows: "You are standing and cheering and yelling for your clothes to beat the clothes from another city. Fans will be so in love with a player, but if he goes to another team, they boo him. This is the same human being in a different shirt! They hate him now! Boo! Different shirt!! Boo!"

When will we reach the point that we now root for our chemists to whip up better concoctions than the other team's chemists?

And will we pay $100 a ticket to see it?

All-Time Great Prefaces

From David Halberstam's "The Breaks of the Game"

"Fame," O.J. said, walking along, "is a vapor, popuularity is an accident, and money takes wing. The only thing that endures is character."
"Where'd you get that from," Cowlings asked.
"Heard it one night on TV in Buffalo," O.J. said. "I was watching a late hockey game on Canadian TV and all of a sudden a guy just said it. Brought me right up out of my chair. I never forgot it."
-- From an article by Paul Zimmerman, Sports Illustrated, November 26, 1979, on O.J. Simpson.

The next (and final) line in the Zimmerman piece:

"The character of O.J. Simpson will endure. It will be his legacy."

And who's on the cover of that issue of SI?

Patriots fall to 9-2 (Against the Spread)

While there's no question that the New England Patriots are still far-and-away the best team in the NFL, there's also no doubt that the rest of the league has a glimmer of hope after last night's game with Philadephia. The Eagles played with abandon, and emptied out their bag of trickeration against the Pats -- flea-flickers, flanker options, even an on-side kick (that may or may not have travelled 10 yards, but which was not challenged by the Patriots in any event.) Moreover they took Randy Moss out of the game and put the heat on Tom Brady, including one of the most vicious sacks (on the Pats' first offensive possession) of the year.

But what the Eagles game also showed is that the pressure is on the Patriots. In successive series in the second half -- with game on the line -- the Patriots (specifically Faulk, Welker, and Maroney) dropped a series of indifferently-thrown balls by Tom Brady. The defense, meanwhile was unable to get any sort of push on Eagles' QB AJ Feeley, and the journeyman was able to exploit the middle of the field. When Asante Samuel ran down Feeley's ill-advised pass with 4:30 left, all of Patriot Nation -- and the Patriots themselves -- let out a giant sigh of relief.

The Patriots may yet go undefeated, but it looks like the weight of history -- if not that of the 1972 Dolphins -- will be with them the rest of the way.

"It's a free ride when you've already paid..."

Back to the world of irony on Sunday night: less than a month after being featured in a Michael Lewis piece in the NYTimes Magazine on the vagaries of making a career as an NFL kicker, Adam Vinatieri missed two field goals -- including a 29-yarder with less than two minutes remaining in regulation -- that might have given the Colts the win, despite an atrocious effort by Peyton Manning (6 INTs).

As Lewis points out, Vinatieri is not statistically more accurate than other kickers in clutch situations:

The actual number [Vinatieri has made] is 20 out of 25 with the game on the line and a minute or less on the clock (or in overtime). Adam Vinatieri, in other words, is about as likely to make a clutch kick as he is to make an ordinary kick. And he is not all that more likely to make the clutch kick than the ordinarily good N.F.L. kicker. There are virtual unknowns who have a better clutch record: former Bears kicker Paul Edinger went 9 for 9, for instance. There are kickers famous for choking who were roughly as accurate in clutch situations as Vinatieri. (See Mike Vanderjagt.) As Aaron Schatz at Football Outsiders, who calculated the figures for me, says: "The sample sizes are too small to make a lot out of them. It's not really an analysis of clutch ability as it is an analysis of clutch history. And what separates Vinatieri is that he has almost half again as many attempts as any other kicker. That, and his clutch kicks are so memorable."

But for any fan of the New England Patriots, Vinatieri will always be identified with the greatest years in Pats history -- the Snow Kick, the 48-yarder to end the Rams' dynastic dreams, and the FGs to win the Carolina and Eagles Super Bowls.

On Sunday night, Vinatieri had no answers, although he took the heat by attempting to answer the reporters' questions. Life for an NFL kicker is painful, as Lewis pointed out. Even for Adam Vinatieri.

NFL's No. 1?

Discussion about the NFL draft centers around which quarterback will go first - LSU's JaMarcus Russell or Notre Dame's Brady Quinn. Quinn appears to be the more-finished product, although Russell has more "upside potential." SI's Peter King writes in the magazine this week:

The top of this draft looks a lot like 1998's. That year Washington State's Ryan Leaf was the big, strong guy with a great deep arm; Tennessee's Peyton Manning was the heady passer who hadn't won the big game in college. Manning went No. 1 to the Indianapolis Colts, Leaf No. 2 to the San Diego Chargers. Nine years later Manning sits atop the football world, and Leaf is a college golf coach in West Texas. "The repercussions of this pick will last for years," said Browns general manager Phil Savage. "You're picking a flavor, basically. Brady's probably the safer pick. He's been so well-schooled in every aspect of quarterback play, and we've had three or four years to evaluate him because he's played so much college football. And people in this league respect [Notre Dame] coach Charlie Weis. They'll listen to him about Brady. Maybe there's more upside with JaMarcus because he's so physically gifted. It's a tough call."

But a better analogy might be the 1993 draft, where the Patriots used the first pick to pick the bigger, stronger, Drew Bledsoe, and the Seahawks chose Notre Dame's Rick Mirer at #2.

While Bledsoe went to one Super Bowl by himself, and helped the Patriots get to Supe XXXVI, it's fair to say that he will ultimately be seen as a disappointment. Mirer, in contrast, lasted just 3+ years as a starter, and was a bust.

Concussions and the NFL

Interesting article in the New York Times today on the suicide of former NFL player Andre Waters and possible links to the concussions he suffered while playing.

Kudos to FOAP (Friend of Allerton's Point) Chris Nowinski, who identified the potential connection from news media reports of Waters' death and convinced the family to pursue testing.

What's a Challenge Worth?

In the aftermath of the Chargers' meltdown on Sunday against the Patriots, Marty Schottenheimer has come under criticism from all sides. One play that stood out was the decision to challenge the ruling-on-the-field of the interception by Marlon McCree and subsequent strip by Patriots WR Troy Brown; the play was a 4th-and-5 with the Pats down by 8 points with just 6:25 left in the game. If the interception had stood (or, for that matter, if McCree had batted the ball down, giving the Chargers possession), the game likely would have swung to the Chargers.

Schottenheimer was criticized for throwing a challenge flag on a play that did not seem (at first glance, or later) to be ripe to be overturned. Further, the Chargers could have used the lost timeout later in the game when, down a field goal with under a minute to go, they tried to mount one final drive.

It's easy to criticize Schottenheimer, the owner of a 5-13 record in the playoffs. (He's also the holder of the dubious distinction of being the NFL coach with the most career wins (200) without a Super Bowl appearance.) However, if the call had been overturned -- as unlikely as that seemed to be given the replays -- the Chargers would have likely won.

But Baltimore Ravens Coach Brian Billick should be subject to even harsher criticism. With approximately 6 minutes left in the third quarter against the Colts, he challenged a fumble out of bounds that still left the Colts with a 3rd-and-4 at midfield; whether the call was correct or not, the Ravens needed the timeout (and the coach's challenge) much more than the swing of 7 yards.

As it turned out, the wasted challenge came back to haunt the Ravens. With the Colts embarking on what turned out to be the game-clinching drive, they reached midfield and a 3rd-and-5. After calling their final timeout, Peyton Manning threw a ball to Dallas Clark that appeared to be well-covered by the Ravens' Corey Ivy. But Clark reached out with one hand, tipped the ball to himself, juggled it against his thigh pad, and ultimately came up holding the ball with an apparent catch. With no challenge in reserve, Billick had no choice but to accept the proverbial 'ruling-on-the-field.' The Colts continued down the field, and ultimately finished the game with a final field goal.

With all the statistical analysis that goes into sports writing and watching today, I am surprised that there is not more written on the 'proper' use of a coach's challenge. But when a team's season is on the line -- and can be saved by the use of a challenge -- it seems reasonable to expect the coach to use it. Unless of course he's wasted it already in the 3rd quarter.

Blind Sided (with Science)

The January 8, 2007 issue of The New Yorker contains a series of book comparisons by Adam Gopnik on recent books about football (including John Feinstein's "Next Man Up", Charles P. Pierce's "Moving the Chains", and Michael Lewis' "The Blind Side") with some earlier football books (including George Plimpton's "Paper Lion", Dan Jenkin's "Semi-Tough", and Roy Blount Jr.'s "About Three Bricks Shy of a Load.")

Gopnik does an credible job of comparing across eras (the earlier books describe a younger, more naive NFL that is, in Gopnik's view "funner.") He also compares the state of football literature to the state of baseball writing, with Bill James and the statistical analysis of hardball being taken as a given.

Gopnik starts his piece with a nice vignette of Joe Namath dodging controversy in the New York Jet press box at a recent game:

Someone asks Namath is he believes that [Jet QB] Chad Pennington is in a slump...Namath is suddenly intent. "No, he's a good quarterback," he says seriously. "I've only watched him this year as a fan, on television. I haven't had a chance to break down the passing game to see if Chad's going to the right spots or going to the wrong receiver." You sense that the distinction the old quarterback is making -- between watching as a fan and actually watching -- is, for him, larger than he can quite explain. It isn't just that he hasn't watched as attentively as he might have; watching "as a fan, on television," means that he hasn't really watched at all...

...[W]hat is really astonishing is to be reminded again of how different this game looks depending on where you see it from, on where you're standing (or sitting) while you watch it. When you watch a pro football game from the Crimean War general's viewpoint of the press box, you can see what's going to happen. On television, the quarterback peers out into the distance within the narrowed frame of the midfield camera and for a moment everything seems possible; the view can't know if there's a wide-open man fifty yards deep or if there is nothing ahead of Pennington but despair - four men crowding two receivers, who aren't even bothering to wave their arms...If you're watching live, Namath's point comes home; on television you see free will instead of a series of forced choices, mostly bad. The quarterback, the gallant general, peering out, in command, becomes, in reality, a stitch in the pattern already woven, his fate nearly sealed before he gets to fiddle with it.

But while Gopnik references Lewis' book, what's interesting is the parallels between Gopnik's analysis of Namath's view of play, and how Lewis analyzes the protection provided by the Left Tackle (playing on the blind side to the right-handed quarterback), in describing a playoff game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Minnesota Vikings in 1988. And what's even more interesting is that Gopnik didn't make (or perhaps acknowledge) the connection:

What happens on this first serious encounter between these two huge men happens so fast it's nearly impossible to comprehend with the naked eye in real time. [Viking Chris] Doleman sprints upfield, probably expecting to collide with [49er Steve] Wallace on his first or second step - but he doesn't. Wallace has taken a new angle. 'I had to make sure that his body was completely by me...wait...wait...Then I hit him.'

He'd met Doleman as deep in the backfield as he possibly could without missing him altogether. They collided, briefly, at the spot Doleman wanted to be making a sharp left to get at [49er Joe] Montana. The hit kept Doleman from turning, and drove him further upfield. Steve Wallace had trade the pleasure of violence for the comfort of real estate.

Nobody notices, of course. His contribution was the opposite of drama. He'd removed the antagonist from the play entirely. What the fans and the television cameras see if 49er wide receiver John Taylor come wide open in the middle of the field. Joe Montana hits with a pass, and Taylor races for a gain of twenty yards.

(Gopnik's piece is not available on line.)