Super-Delegate-dom

Although a win tomorrow by Obama in both Ohio and Texas will make the point moot (and don't think for a minute that the Clintons won't try to fight on if they win one of the two states, and lose the other narrowly), Geraldine Ferraro's op-ed last week about the role of super-delegates is worth revisiting.

Ferraro served on the Hunt Commission, which in 1982 revised the manner in which the Democratic Party chose its nominees. Last week in the NY Times, she wrote that "[T]he superdelegates were created to lead, not to follow," after many of them "walked away" from the party's nominee (President Jimmy Carter) in 1980.

In 1984, these superdelegates stuck with former Vice President Walter Mondale when he was in trouble, having lost 16 of 26 primaries or caucuses to Senator Gary Hart. But the core group of 700 or so superdelegates stuck with Mondale (many had committed before the primary season even began), and as Hart later said, "I got almost none of them, because [Mondale] was considered inevitable."

But whatever happened in the general election in 1984?

If you listen to Ferraro, it was a deus ex machina that caused the general election defeat:

We lost in 1984, big time. But that loss had nothing to do with Democratic Party infighting.

But while the loss may have not have had anything to do with 'infighting', the record reflects that Mondale lost 49 of 50 states (he also won the District of Columbia, along with his home state of Minnesota.)

The superdelegates helped Mondale on his way to a record matched only by George McGovern in 1972, who won just Massachusetts and DC.

Perhaps the 1984 voters, like those in 2008, had a better sense of who could challenge Ronald Reagan in the fall. After all, it's hard to argue that Gary Hart would have fared worse.

Deadline: May 2nd

Here's a date that may be relevant in this year's Presidential primary calendar: May 2nd.

In Georgia, that's the last day for qualifying to run in the "General Primary", to be held on July 15.

While the average voter may not be aware of that date, it's a good bet that Democratic office-holders, like Georgia's John Lewis, are.

Lewis is a legend of the civil rights era: he was chairman of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC); he spoke at the March on Washignton in 1963, he marched in Selma in 1965, and is currently serving his 11th term as a Congressman from Georgia's 5th congressional district, which is comprised mainly the city of Atlanta. He is also a superdelegate who endorsed Hillary Clinton in October.

Georgia went for Obama by a margin of more than 2-to-1. Fulton County, which is essentially the city of Atlanta, went for Obama by a 3-to-1 margin. (Results for the 5th CD are not available; just by county.) Finally, exit polls indicate that African-American voters in Georgia supported Obama by close to 9-to-1 margins.

So should John Lewis be worried about a primary challenge? Probably not. After all, he's a icon of the Civil Rights movement, and has decades of good-will built up with the community. But he is probably not happy about having to explain a 'vote' that 75% to 90% of his constituents not only disagree with, but actually went to the polls and voted on.

Nor is he the only high-ranking African-American office-holder who has endorsed Hillary. Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs (OH) endorsed in April; Sheila Jackson-Lee endorsed in May; and Maxine Waters endorsed just before the California primary.

It's considered 'bad form' for any incumbent Congressperson to face a primary challenge. Moreover, the challenger usually has trouble raising money, and faces the argument that the district will lose the seniority and clout in Congress that has been built up by the sitting Representative.

In 2000, Congressman Bobby Rush was completing his 4th term in Congress. Another leader in the Civil Rights Era (although a few years younger than Lewis), Rush had been a member of SNCC from 1966 to 1968 and was a co-founder of the Illinois Black Panther Party in 1968. He also was a Chicago Alderman for 8 years. (Rush himself had unseated an incumbent Congressman, Charles Hayes, in a Democratic primary in 1992.)

But in late 1999, Rush faced a challenge in the Democratic primary from a rising young star. Rush had the support of the party, including then-President Bill Clinton; in 1991, Rush had been the first Illinois elected official to support then-Governor Clinton. The challenger entered the race in September, 1999, six months before the primary, but campaigning was halted by all parties (including a third female candidate) in mid-October, when Mr. Rush's 29-year-old son was shot, and after four days in a Chicago hospital, died. As an observer noted, “That incident seemed to wash away any bad feelings that voters had or might have had about Bobby Rush.”

Bobby Rush survived that challenge in 2000, winning in the end by a comfortable 61-30% margin.

His opponent that winter? Then State Senator Barack Obama.

Footnote: Just last week, calling it "one of the most difficult decisions" he's made in politics, and after endorsing one of Obama's opponents in the 2004 Senate primary, Rush endorsed Obama for President. Said Rush:

We come from the same neighborhood and represent the same constituency, and I'm going to be with my constituency and Sen. Obama.