Predictions: New Hampshire

Picking up where we left off in Iowa:

GOP:
1. McCain - reminiscing
2. Romney - energized
3. Giuliani - hopeful
4. Huckabee - bad track
5. Thompson - wondering

Dems:
1. Obama - ran away
2. Clinton - losing touch
3. Edwards - angrily
4. Richardson - heading West

Update:
Obviously, the combination of independent women moving towards Hillary, and independent men (many of whom surely felt that Obama's apparent growing lead was safe) moving towards McCain -- as they did in 2000 -- was instrumental.

However, it's clear that Hillary's margin was obtained in the urban wards in Manchester, Berlin, and Nashua; a quick analysis would indicate that the race will be a traditional city/suburban split. But New Hampshire's cities -- like the state itself -- are overwhelmingly white. As the race moves south and west, cities will be much more diverse, and therefore more amenable to an Obama appeal.

It is worth noting that while New Hampshire has a huge "Independent" bloc, many are Independent because there are no penalties for being so -- the actual independents are probably in the 10% range, not the reported 40%. In other states, most NH Independents will stay in their respective parties.

Obama and JFK

In response to Hillary's 'false hopes' criticism in Saturday night's debate, Senator Barack Obama responded that others -- including JFK's call to 'put a man on the moon before the decade [of the 1960s] is out" -- were also 'just words' but words that inspired millions.

Hillary responded again yesterday, but telling Obama, in effect, that 'he is no JFK':

You know, today Senator Obama used President John F. Kennedy and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. to criticize me. He basically compared himself to our greatest heroes because they gave great speeches.

President Kennedy was in Congress for 14 years. He was a war hero. He was a man of great accomplishments and readiness to be president...

In fact, one of the toughest criticisms that JFK faced in the 1960 election (in the general election against Nixon) was that he was unprepared to lead. His Congressional record was relatively undistinguished, and even after 1956 (when he campaigned for the brokered Vice-Presidential slot at the National Convention) he was not involved in landmark legislation.

JFK's responded in the Convention Speech in Los Angeles:

My call is to the young in heart, regardless of age--to all who respond to the Scriptural call: 'Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed.'

For courage--not complacency--is our need today--leadership--not salesmanship. And the only valid test of leadership is the ability to lead, and lead vigorously.(*)

Almost 50 years later, those words still resonate.

(*-Note that the text of the speech as delivered is slightly different: "My call is to the young in heart, regardless of age; to the young in spirit, regardless of political party --to all who respond to the Scriptural call: 'Be strong and of good courage; be not afraid, neither be dismayed.')

(Go to 6:00 minute mark of clip)

C's bounce back

Give the Celtics credit.

Just a few short weeks after losing their first "big" game of the year -- to Detroit at home -- the C's have reeled off 9 wins in a row, including an impressive road trip to the West Coast (with wins at Sacramento, Seattle, Utah and the LA Lakers) and recent wins over Houston (albeit without T-Mac).

Boston's most impressive win came two nights ago against the Pistons, where they leveled the season series and also gave notice that a playoff series between these two teams would be very entertaining.

To be continued...

Predictions: Iowa

Yes, yes, it's impossible to predict the Iowa caucuses, and the polls (especially those released in the last few days) are more likely to be wrong than right, but for just-for-the-heck of it, here's one view how the caucusing will go tonight, with one- or two-words of analysis (with kudos to the Daily Racing Form):

Republicans:
1. Romney - Muddy win
2. Huckabee - Bad homestretch
3. McCain - Closing
4. Giuliani - Went wide
5. Thompson - Broke down

Democrats:
1. Obama - Closed
2. Edwards - Holding on
3. Clinton - Faded
4. Biden - Classy, consistent
5. Dodd - Slow start


Post-Iowa Update:

Here's what the analysis should have been, with the apparent results at 12am:

GOP:
1. Huckabee - resolute
2. Romney - desperate
3. Thompson - uncertain
4. McCain - restarted
5. Giuliani - out-of-touch

Dems:
1. Obama - impressive kick
2. Edwards - clinging
3. Clinton - shaken
4. Richardson - surprising
5. Biden - distant
6. Dodd - quietly

New Year's Excitement in Boston

A fire at the McCormick Building in Post Office Square (currently undergoing renovation) brought a shivering lunchtime crowd some mid-day interest.