The Mouse That Roared (pt 2)

The bubble tightened a little bit for a number of BCS teams with Cleveland State's win over Butler in the Horizon League final.

Cleveland State heads back to the NCAA for the first time since 1986. You may remember that team. Bob Knight sure does.

And so does John Feinstein.

"In the National Interest"

Warren Buffett appeared on CNBC this morning, and used strong words to describe the economic challenges facing the nation: "we really are [in] an economic war."

He had strong words for both parties' conduct so far:

I think that the Republicans have an obligation to regard this as an economic war and to realize you need one leader and, in general, support of that. But I think that the--I think that the Democrats--and I voted for Obama and I strongly support him, and I think he's the right guy--but I think they should not use this--when they're calling for unity on a question this important, they should not use it to roll the Republicans all. I think--I think a lot of things should be--job one is to win the war, job--the economic war, job two is to win the economic war, and job three. And you can't expect people to unite behind you if you're trying to jam a whole bunch of things down their throat...

I would absolutely say for the--for the interim, till we get this one solved, I would not be pushing a lot of things that are--you know are contentious, and I also--I also would do no finger-pointing whatsoever. I would--you know, I would not say, you know, `George'--`the previous administration got us into this.' Forget it. I mean, you know, the Navy made a mistake at Pearl Harbor and had too many ships there. But the idea that we'd spend our time after that, you know, pointing fingers at the Navy, we needed the Navy. So I would--I would--I would--no finger-pointing, no vengeance, none of that stuff. Just look forward.

Buffett is not a politician.

But one doesn't have to be a political animal to know that Cong. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) is clearly thinking about putting the country first:

We will lose on legislation. But we will win the message war every day, and every week, until November 2010. Our goal is to bring down approval numbers for [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi and for House Democrats. That will take repetition. This is a marathon, not a sprint

The Sound of Bubble(s) Popping

(And no, it's not another depressing economic post -- unless you are an Arizona fan.)

Casual fans of the NCAA tournament may be confused next Monday morning, when millions of Americans participate in a true annual-rite-of-spring: when the NCAA brackets are announced, heartthrob Davidson is likely to be on the outside looking in.

Davidson ran away with the Southern Conference's regular season, finishing 18-2 (26-7 overall), and winning the Southern Division by 3 games. But in the Tournament semifinals last night, the Wildcats were upset by the College of Charleston (26-7, 15-5), and the CofC Cougars will play Chattanoga tonight for an automatic NCAA bid.

Ranked #70 on the Pomeroy computer, and with only a single win over likely-NCAA teams (over WVU on neutral floor; losses to Duke, Purdue, and Oklahoma, albeit all on the road, plus Butler (loss at home)), Davidson seems unlikely to earn a second-life thanks to the NCAA Committee.

Moreover, since spraining his ankle in mid-February, All-American guard Stephen Curry has been operating with somewhat reduced effectiveness -- his scoring is down slightly since the injury (27.1 ppg vs. 28.9 before the injury) and his accuracy has been down slightly as well (48-109 (44.0%) FG in last six games, vs. 244-532 (45.8%) prior.)

But Davidson is undoubtedly the type of "mid-major" team that casual -- and potential "Cold Case" -- viewers love to root for. Davidson is on-the-bubble, which means it's getting warm in the room for BCS middlers like Michigan, Providence, and Arizona.

And finally, tonight's "Championship Week" also features Siena vs. Niagra, in a match-up of the two best in the Metro Atlantic. While Siena attempted to schedule itself into an at-large bid, it was only able to beat two NCAA-bound teams (Cornell and Northern Iowa), with losses to Pitt, Kansas, Tenn); tonight is likely a play-in game for the two evenly-matched teams (#68 and #69 on the Pomeroy computer).

Finally, about Cornell: while this year marks the first time since 1958-59 (Dartmouth) that a non-Princeton/Penn team has repeated, Big Red fans should still act as though "they have been there before."

Unemployment's "Only" at XX%

In response to the current crisis, conversations drawing parallels to the Great Depression (or, as it may soon be known, World Depression I) usually end with this one: "How bad can things be? Unemployment's not 24 percent like it was then."

But it took some time for unemployment to reach those levels.

Indeed, at the end of 1930, more than a year after the 'start' of the Great Depression -- commonly believed to be October, 1929 -- unemployment stood at just 8.7%. Today, the rate stands at 7.6%.

It was not until 1932, two-and-one-half years after the "Crash", and after a second banking panic (in the spring of 1931) that the unemployment rate reached 23.6%, peaking at just over 24% in 1933.

Which is not to say that we are currently headed for 24% unemployment, or even anything like it. The aggressive steps that the Administration is taking seem likely to reverse the downward drift.

But it's way to early to say that we know where the bottom is for the unemployment rate in this down-cycle.

Smoot-Hawley, Redux?

It is conventional wisdom that our current crisis -- even if it blossoms into World Depression II (Michael Kinsley's phrase) -- won't be as bad as the Great Depression.

After all, policy-makers have many more tools at their disposal, and we won't make the same mistakes (worrying about balancing the budget, restricting unemployment relief, and passing the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.)

The last of these -- Smoot-Hawley -- is seen as a symbolic, and prolonging, but not causing the Depression. While tariffs had long played a role in US economic development, Smoot-Hawley (ultimately passed in 1930) had the misfortune of being debated on the front pages of New York newspapers while the 1929 Crash was occurring. As one observer at the time said, the Act "'intensified nationalism all over the world.'"

But the continued threat of terrorism -- fueled by theocratic leaders that wish to 'return to an earlier age' -- may have some of the same effects as Smoot-Hawley. This morning's attack in Pakistan on a visiting cricket team from Sri Lanka will undoubtedly have a chilling effect on cultural exchanges in that part of Asia. (The Sri Lankans were actually replacing an Indian team that cancelled after last year's Mumbai attacks.)

Does "sports tourism" have a material effect on international economic activity? Of course not. But the symbolic effect of 'closing off' parts of the global economy may have some psychological effect that, like Smoot-Hawley, make take years to overcome.

And that doesn't even begin to account for the potential global ramifications of the first failed state with nuclear weapons.