Princeton's head basketball coach, Sydney Johnson, has left to take a similar position at Fairfield University.
And a Tiger Nation wonders why.
Time for an adult conversation.
Here's one reality: Sydney did a great job with a difficult hand. He turned a 6-23 team into one that won the Ivy title and took a Final Four team (Kentucky) to the last two seconds. He did it with class and made everyone associated with the team feel good about how he did it.
He also did it faster than the much-more-publicized Tommy Amaker did at Harvard (they both started four years ago) despite Harvard's stronger commitment -- both financially and with admissions, um, "flexibility".
So Tiger Nation can fairly be disappointed.
Here's the second reality: Sydney's chosen profession is coaching.
Princeton's basketball coach is normally paid (at somewhere in the low-to-mid $200s as widely reported) -- if he does his job correctly, and performs in accordance with historic norms -- below "market." And the market is moving upscale.
An aside: Yes, Pete Carril stayed at the school for 29 years despite winning multiple titles. But Coach Carril grew up in the 1930s in Bethlehem (PA), at a time when you were happy to have a job(*).
(*-Shades of players, decades later who, in Carril-speak, were "happy to have a uniform.")
But back to the current day. If you have the ability to find eight high-schoolers, convince them to come to your school, and turn them into a winning basketball team, you can make a lot of money.
A lotta lot.
Rick Pitino made $8M last year. 30 of the 68 coaches who took their teams to the NCAA this March earn $1M or more.
(Actually, make that 31: VCU's Shaka Smart just signed for 8 years at $1.2M/year.)
And the velocity at the top is increasing. Back to Carril: in the 1980s, the then-Kentucky coach (Joe B. Hall) probably made $750K, or 4x or 5x as much as the Princeton basketball coach.
In 2007 (the year Sydney started at Princeton), Kentucky hired Billy Gillispie for $2.3M per year. 10x.
Current Kentucky Coach John Calipari makes close to $5M per year. 25x.
And even beyond the dollars that the schools pay, the current "cult of personality"(*) that surrounds big-time college coaches provides plenty of other opportunities, from summer camp lectures to corporate retreats.
(*-A small point on this: the raised "NCAA custom court"(**) for the Final Four has resulted in even more (marginal) focus on the coaches. They are elevated above the rest of their bench, their coaching staff, even the official scorer. And since almost no single athlete plays all 40 minutes, they have literally the longest-running role on "center stage.")
(**-Not to get off on a tangent, but one does wonder: what does the "custom court" have to do with the NCAA's academic mission? And how much does it cost? Oh, and by the way, the NCAA owns at least 13 of them (8 opening round sites (mens) + 4 (womens regionals only) + the one in Dayton.)
See: John Thompson III, who left Princeton in 2004, is paid $1.8M/year and is featured in a national television commercial alongside Magic Johnson.
Meanwhile, and most relevantly for this discussion, it's clear that the dollars at the top of the pay scale are trickling down. The "mid-majors" -- George Mason, VCU, Butler, Richmond (with FoAP Chris Mooney) -- are willing to invest in their quality coaches(*), and give them long-term security (6 years for GMU's Larranaga, 8 years for Smart, 10 years for each of the other two).
(*-Whether this money is being found inside the athletic budget, or via outside (ie., special-purpose fundraising), and if the latter, how the schools' development offices feel about it, is an interesting question.)
It's not Rick Pitino money, but it's still a good living, and with more job security (i.e., a longer-term contract) than at some of the "BCS Schools."(*) That's what has changed in the past decade. As noted earlier with regard to Jeff Capel, the patience at the BCS schools is shorter.
(*-And unlike the Ivies, the Mid Majors offer the simplicity of offering athletic scholarships rather than hoping on the Princeton, say, Admissions Office for (i) an admit; and (ii) a financial aid package.)
We don't think of Fairfield as having a great recent basketball tradition, but frankly, who thought about Butler's tradition before last year? Or VCU's before last week?
Fairfield, by all accounts, was willing to invest in Sydney (query whether or not Fairfield can afford its investment, given its basketball revenue, but that's a problem for another day).
Indeed, by inking Johnson, Fairfield has raised its basketball visibility. Oh, and by the way, they are still in a major media market, and one that will be undoubtedly thinking -- and reporting -- more about the Stags (and probably the rest of the MAAC(*) as well.)
(*-Indeed, with its core Jesuit institutions -- and local, traditional rivalries -- the MAAC is starting to look more-and-more like the old Big East did when it was started in the late 1970s.)
And while at Princeton, Johnson was "just another" representative of the school, he's likely to be The Face of Fairfield(*) - the school, not just the basketball team.
(*-Johnson's photo is currently on the front-page of Fairfield's website, above the "fold". One doubts that the new Princeton coach -- whomever he is -- will get the same attention.)
(Quick quiz: Name the most prominent Fairfield alum.)
(Answer: Probably, Buddy Cianci.)
And he's likely to have a direct line into the President's office. Rev. Jeffrey von Arx, S.J. is a 1969 Princeton alum.
As the NCAA basketball world is now "flat" (in Seth Davis' words -- sort of), it's a reasonable -- if not expected -- move. (Davis' point is that, in a one-and-done era, the gap between BCS-elite teams fielding frosh and sophs and a mid-major built around veterans has shrunk. On four different occasions in the last six Final Fours, Mid Majors have appeared (GMU (2006), Butler (2010 & 2011) and VCU (2011).))
Realistically, the foreseeable NCAA ceiling on the Ivy League is probably the Sweet Sixteen, which Cornell reached last year, not the Final Four or even the Round of Eight. In the 31 years since Penn went to the Bird-Magic Final Four, only 7 Ivy teams have won a single game in the tournament. Only the aforementioned Cornell team won in the Round of 32.(*)
(*-The 1983 Princeton team won two games, but the first game was a "Preliminary"/Play-in, hence they did not reach the Sixteen.)
In the last ten years, the MAAC has won four NCAA first round games(*), although it has not sent a team to the Sixteen in its history (begun in 1983-4). (By the way, Sydney's inheriting a team that was 25-8 and has 4 starters returning.)
(*-Niagra also won a play-in game in 2007, but was blitzed by #1-Kansas in the First Round.)
And while Princeton may seem like a great place to live and raise a family, there are any number of residents -- many of whom work on Wall Street -- who seem to find Fairfield County perfectly acceptable.
Is Princeton-to-Fairfield a move that we expect?
No, but in this world-is-flat time in college basketball, we shouldn't really be surprised.
Showing posts with label College Basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label College Basketball. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Christmas in March
There's plenty to be depressed about around the world.
Japan. Bahrain. Libya. The Deficit. The Economy.
And here in New England, the winter has been one of the snowiest and longest in recent memory.
Yet, with the dawn of the "real" opening day(*) of the NCAA Tournament -- and on St. Patrick's Day, no less -- it's truly Christmas in March, at least for those of us who love basketball.
(*-The NCAA's "First Four" notwithstanding. In reality, most people (and more importantly, most bracket pools) have ignored the four games played over the past two nights.)
The tournament has changed over the years. When I was in grade school, there was no "Selection Show", no ubiquitous printable brackets. On the Thursday of the first week, Sports Illustrated would arrive with a stapled-in insert (often sponsored by Camel Cigarettes) with my first look at the bracket as a whole. (The Springfield Union-News would publish the matchups in agate type, with the Second Round indicated only as "Saturday, 2pm: Game #7 Winner vs. Game #8 Winner")
But I would race home breathlessly after school, flip on a nascent ESPN (cable had arrived the year before, and ESPN was one of the 13 channels that were included) and watch Reggie Lewis lead a Jim Calhoun-coached Northeastern squad against LIU. Like Opening Day of a baseball season, there's no substitute for watching real-live sports in the afternoon -- and in a game that matters.
Over the years, I was lucky enough to be a small part of three First Round weeks: in 1989, 1990, and 1991. The memories of those weeks -- and in particular the "what-might-have-been" at the end of each of those games, decided by a total of 7 points -- will be with me as long as I live.
But what is most interesting is not that the memories of the Tournament would stick with me -- a role player on a mid- or perhaps low-major team. Even Kenny Anderson, a high school phenom, #2 overall pick in the NBA draft, and who played 858 games(*) in the Association -- thinks back fondly on his days in his only NCAA Tourney. And it's nice to see a player like Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor -- a player whose NBA prospects are not at all certain -- be able to reflect on the tourney even as it happens: "This is one of the best times of the year. Probably better than Christmas for a lot of us."
(*-If you don't think 858 games in the NBA is a lot, check out the all-time list. If you are even a casual sports fan, you will recognize the vast majority of the names above Kenny (for sure once you get above 1,000 or so), and you can probably bring an image of each player on that list.)
Of course, what really makes today is our discovery of Cinderella: the unheralded small school that can take down a Major. It happens every year -- almost -- but even still some are more amazing then others. In 1996, Princeton took out the defending NCAA champs in a nail-biter; Sean Gregory (also a former Tiger player) wrote a terrific retrospective in Time Magazine about the inside story-behind-the-story.
So enjoy today. And tomorrow.
By Sunday evening, the clock will probably have struck midnight for all of the Cinderellas, and we'll be (most likely) back to the BCS heavyweights for the Sweet 16. You know, the ones you've projected in your pool.
But for now, hope springs eternal. And unlike baseball, you only have to wait 40 minutes -- not 162 games -- to see it rewarded.
Japan. Bahrain. Libya. The Deficit. The Economy.
And here in New England, the winter has been one of the snowiest and longest in recent memory.
Yet, with the dawn of the "real" opening day(*) of the NCAA Tournament -- and on St. Patrick's Day, no less -- it's truly Christmas in March, at least for those of us who love basketball.
(*-The NCAA's "First Four" notwithstanding. In reality, most people (and more importantly, most bracket pools) have ignored the four games played over the past two nights.)
The tournament has changed over the years. When I was in grade school, there was no "Selection Show", no ubiquitous printable brackets. On the Thursday of the first week, Sports Illustrated would arrive with a stapled-in insert (often sponsored by Camel Cigarettes) with my first look at the bracket as a whole. (The Springfield Union-News would publish the matchups in agate type, with the Second Round indicated only as "Saturday, 2pm: Game #7 Winner vs. Game #8 Winner")
But I would race home breathlessly after school, flip on a nascent ESPN (cable had arrived the year before, and ESPN was one of the 13 channels that were included) and watch Reggie Lewis lead a Jim Calhoun-coached Northeastern squad against LIU. Like Opening Day of a baseball season, there's no substitute for watching real-live sports in the afternoon -- and in a game that matters.
Over the years, I was lucky enough to be a small part of three First Round weeks: in 1989, 1990, and 1991. The memories of those weeks -- and in particular the "what-might-have-been" at the end of each of those games, decided by a total of 7 points -- will be with me as long as I live.
But what is most interesting is not that the memories of the Tournament would stick with me -- a role player on a mid- or perhaps low-major team. Even Kenny Anderson, a high school phenom, #2 overall pick in the NBA draft, and who played 858 games(*) in the Association -- thinks back fondly on his days in his only NCAA Tourney. And it's nice to see a player like Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor -- a player whose NBA prospects are not at all certain -- be able to reflect on the tourney even as it happens: "This is one of the best times of the year. Probably better than Christmas for a lot of us."
(*-If you don't think 858 games in the NBA is a lot, check out the all-time list. If you are even a casual sports fan, you will recognize the vast majority of the names above Kenny (for sure once you get above 1,000 or so), and you can probably bring an image of each player on that list.)
Of course, what really makes today is our discovery of Cinderella: the unheralded small school that can take down a Major. It happens every year -- almost -- but even still some are more amazing then others. In 1996, Princeton took out the defending NCAA champs in a nail-biter; Sean Gregory (also a former Tiger player) wrote a terrific retrospective in Time Magazine about the inside story-behind-the-story.
So enjoy today. And tomorrow.
By Sunday evening, the clock will probably have struck midnight for all of the Cinderellas, and we'll be (most likely) back to the BCS heavyweights for the Sweet 16. You know, the ones you've projected in your pool.
But for now, hope springs eternal. And unlike baseball, you only have to wait 40 minutes -- not 162 games -- to see it rewarded.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Will You Still Need Me, Will You Still Feed Me...When I'm 68?
The NCAA expanded its Men's Basketball field to...68 teams today.
The surprising news comes after a winter when it seemed almost sure that the expansion would be all the way to 96, allowing the top eight seeds in each region a Bye in the first round, adding a full round for seeds 9-24, and meaning wall-to-wall college basketball for six straight nights.
As part of the new deal, CBS will share coverage with Turner, meaning that every single game will be available somewhere on the dial. Or, perhaps more appropriate, at some triple-digit number on your cable box.
As Deadspin's Dashiell Bennett points out, it seems that -- shockingly -- the NCAA listened to the criticism that was levelled in the month of March: the tournament worked as-is, the expansion would water down the regular season, and so forth. Three more at-large bids will (almost surely) be awarded, but the tournament will have the same look-and-feel, albeit with four "play-in" games on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
But Bennett is wrong in one respect when he writes the following:
The expansion of the play-in games means that the worst eight automatic qualifiers will play the 16A/16B games for the right to play the #1-seeds. But assuming that the Tournament Committee seeds teams correctly(*), that means that the #16A teams will be advancing; in years past those teams were also known as "#15 seeds."
(*)-The seeding this year was especially problematic, as was widely observed, especially regard to eventual champion Duke's path to the Final Four, and games such as Temple (5)/Cornell (12).
For example, here are the "weakest" four teams in the 2009(**) bracket, together with actual (post-season) KenPom rating:
Here are the next four weakest:
(**) - Using the 2009 to avoid the seeding problems in this year's tournament.
(***) - Of course, the Committee still mis-seeded Morehead State. (For the record, the other 2009 15-seed was Cal St Northridge (99 KenPom), who played tough against #2 Memphis, before falling 81-70.)
Thus, the #1-seeds will be playing a team that is -- on average -- sixty places higher on the rankings than they would in the traditional 64-team field.
Slicing the data another way (and perhaps accounting for mis-seeds), here are the averages for the five #16- and four #15-seeds:
Closer, but still a material improvement, assuming that the better teams wins the play-in game(s).
Some will counter that the short rest will make the #16's road even tougher. (The play-in game winners will have to play the #1 seeds two days after the opening round games, while the #1 seeds have a week to prepare.) But conference tournaments are rife with low-seeded teams who play on consecutive nights and beat higher-ranked opponents who have had a bye. For instance, in the Big East just this year, #8 Georgetown beat #1 Syracuse; #5 Marquette beat #4 Villanova, #7 ND beat #2 Pitt, and #11 Cincy beat #6 Louisville; in each of those games, the lower ranked team played back-to-back against a rested opponent.
The bottom line: the #1 seeds will be playing materially better teams.
And that makes the chances of a #16 beating a #1 much higher, no matter how you slice it.
The surprising news comes after a winter when it seemed almost sure that the expansion would be all the way to 96, allowing the top eight seeds in each region a Bye in the first round, adding a full round for seeds 9-24, and meaning wall-to-wall college basketball for six straight nights.
As part of the new deal, CBS will share coverage with Turner, meaning that every single game will be available somewhere on the dial. Or, perhaps more appropriate, at some triple-digit number on your cable box.
As Deadspin's Dashiell Bennett points out, it seems that -- shockingly -- the NCAA listened to the criticism that was levelled in the month of March: the tournament worked as-is, the expansion would water down the regular season, and so forth. Three more at-large bids will (almost surely) be awarded, but the tournament will have the same look-and-feel, albeit with four "play-in" games on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
But Bennett is wrong in one respect when he writes the following:
The field will expand to 68 teams, which means (presumably) that all four 16-seeds will now be determined by play-in game, making the possibility of a 16-over-1 upset even more improbable than it already is...
The expansion of the play-in games means that the worst eight automatic qualifiers will play the 16A/16B games for the right to play the #1-seeds. But assuming that the Tournament Committee seeds teams correctly(*), that means that the #16A teams will be advancing; in years past those teams were also known as "#15 seeds."
(*)-The seeding this year was especially problematic, as was widely observed, especially regard to eventual champion Duke's path to the Final Four, and games such as Temple (5)/Cornell (12).
For example, here are the "weakest" four teams in the 2009(**) bracket, together with actual (post-season) KenPom rating:
Chattanoga (16), 226
Alabama State (16B), 209
Radford (16), 188
Binghampton (15), 165 (***)
Average Rating: 197, or slightly below the median of 344 Division I teams
Here are the next four weakest:
Morehead State (16A - play-in winner) 150
Morgan State (15) 148
Robert Morris (15), 118
East Tenn St (16), 111
Average Rating: 132, or close to top one-third of all D-I teams
(**) - Using the 2009 to avoid the seeding problems in this year's tournament.
(***) - Of course, the Committee still mis-seeded Morehead State. (For the record, the other 2009 15-seed was Cal St Northridge (99 KenPom), who played tough against #2 Memphis, before falling 81-70.)
Thus, the #1-seeds will be playing a team that is -- on average -- sixty places higher on the rankings than they would in the traditional 64-team field.
Slicing the data another way (and perhaps accounting for mis-seeds), here are the averages for the five #16- and four #15-seeds:
#16-seeds: 177
#15-seeds: 132
Closer, but still a material improvement, assuming that the better teams wins the play-in game(s).
Some will counter that the short rest will make the #16's road even tougher. (The play-in game winners will have to play the #1 seeds two days after the opening round games, while the #1 seeds have a week to prepare.) But conference tournaments are rife with low-seeded teams who play on consecutive nights and beat higher-ranked opponents who have had a bye. For instance, in the Big East just this year, #8 Georgetown beat #1 Syracuse; #5 Marquette beat #4 Villanova, #7 ND beat #2 Pitt, and #11 Cincy beat #6 Louisville; in each of those games, the lower ranked team played back-to-back against a rested opponent.
The bottom line: the #1 seeds will be playing materially better teams.
And that makes the chances of a #16 beating a #1 much higher, no matter how you slice it.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Ho-Hum
Quick Thought: do you have to go back to 1995 (or even 1982?) to find a Duke-UNC game with less meaning?
And less hype?
ESPN effectively launched its first "spin-off", ESPN2 with the Duke-UNC game back in the mid-1990s by broadcasting the game exclusively on "the Deuce."
Today, it's barely part of "Rivalry Week."
And less hype?
ESPN effectively launched its first "spin-off", ESPN2 with the Duke-UNC game back in the mid-1990s by broadcasting the game exclusively on "the Deuce."
Today, it's barely part of "Rivalry Week."
Sunday, January 31, 2010
On Second Thought...
Only one team made a statement in Ithaca Saturday night.
Cornell 86
Harvard 50
Cornell may break into the Top 25 (in the ESPN/USA Today poll -- they are well out of the T-25 in AP) next week.
And in the NBA, the Celts have a made a statement of a different type this week, losing @ORL, @ATL, and to LAL at home.
With KG in the line-up.
(And with Paul Pierce (interestingly) turning down a shot to win at Crunch Time to throw a floating pass to Ray Allen.)
Cornell 86
Harvard 50
Cornell may break into the Top 25 (in the ESPN/USA Today poll -- they are well out of the T-25 in AP) next week.
And in the NBA, the Celts have a made a statement of a different type this week, losing @ORL, @ATL, and to LAL at home.
With KG in the line-up.
(And with Paul Pierce (interestingly) turning down a shot to win at Crunch Time to throw a floating pass to Ray Allen.)
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Heady Days for Harvard Hoops
Tonight's Ivy League clash in Ithaca, NY may not be the most important college basketball game of the year -- but it may be the most publicized game that won't be on TV.
Harvard (14-3, 3-0) basketball -- thanks to a good loss at UConn followed by an impressive win over Boston College -- has enjoyed a boomlet of publicity in the past few weeks, beginning with a Time Magazine article on Jeremy Lin in late December. Cornell (17-3, 3-0) has been solid all year, and nearly shocked then-Number-One Kansas at Allen Field House a few weeks ago. Tonight, Cornell hosts Harvard in a game that -- with no conference tournament in the Ivies -- will put one team in the driver's seat for the League title.
Just this week, Sports Illustrated, the Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg all previewed the Crimson-Big Red tilt. KenPom has Cornell winning by 4. With the pressure on Cornell to 'hold serve' at home, the game may be even tighter.
But Lin and the current Harvard players are not the only Crimson in the news this week. Former Crimson player and current US Secretary of Education Arne Duncan enjoyed a generally positive profile in the New Yorker. Two take-aways: Duncan, thanks to a decade of playing hoops with Obama, may be the closest Cabinet member to the POTUS. And his educational agenda is far more centrist than most Obama supporters would have imagined.
Harvard (14-3, 3-0) basketball -- thanks to a good loss at UConn followed by an impressive win over Boston College -- has enjoyed a boomlet of publicity in the past few weeks, beginning with a Time Magazine article on Jeremy Lin in late December. Cornell (17-3, 3-0) has been solid all year, and nearly shocked then-Number-One Kansas at Allen Field House a few weeks ago. Tonight, Cornell hosts Harvard in a game that -- with no conference tournament in the Ivies -- will put one team in the driver's seat for the League title.
Just this week, Sports Illustrated, the Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg all previewed the Crimson-Big Red tilt. KenPom has Cornell winning by 4. With the pressure on Cornell to 'hold serve' at home, the game may be even tighter.
But Lin and the current Harvard players are not the only Crimson in the news this week. Former Crimson player and current US Secretary of Education Arne Duncan enjoyed a generally positive profile in the New Yorker. Two take-aways: Duncan, thanks to a decade of playing hoops with Obama, may be the closest Cabinet member to the POTUS. And his educational agenda is far more centrist than most Obama supporters would have imagined.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Raiding Morgantown, continued
A little follow-up: notwithstanding John Beilein's 41-46 record since arriving in Ann Arbor, his contract was recently extended through the 2015-16 season.
(Actually, the extension seems to be a somewhat curious decision -- at least as to timing -- as a team was preseason #15, and that seems reasonably likely to lose star G Manny Harris (he was suspended(*) over the weekend although reinstated for the Michigan State game) is mired with a bubble-icious 10-10 (3-5) record.
(* - AP doesn't have the bandwidth to research the "percentage-of-preseason-All-American-candidates-who-are-suspended-by-their-coach-but-who-nonetheless-finish-out-their-eligibility." But let's just say that the odds aren't great. You know, if betting were legal.)
Back to Beilein's extension: Whatever.
After all, Notre Dame famously gave Charlie Weis an extension early in his tenure, and look how that turned out. (Of course, Weis was 5-2 and #9 in the country at the time he got his new deal.)
The best-case long-term scenario, at least for Michigan fans, is that Beilein's extension empowered him to challenge Harris, and subsequently suspend him. (Potentially) good for team discipline long-term. Not such a good sign as to how the season has gone so far, which perhaps explains the underachieving record.)
But Beilein is not the only ex-Morgantown resident who is now coaching in Ann Arbor. Wolverine football coach Rich Rodriguez has now finished his second season at Michigan, with a combined record of 8-16, and perhaps more alarmingly, won just three conference games in 16 starts.
Are fans -- or for that matter journalists, commentators, or Jay Bilas -- happy with Rich Rod?
Well, he's probably not talking to the AD about a contract extension.
(Actually, the extension seems to be a somewhat curious decision -- at least as to timing -- as a team was preseason #15, and that seems reasonably likely to lose star G Manny Harris (he was suspended(*) over the weekend although reinstated for the Michigan State game) is mired with a bubble-icious 10-10 (3-5) record.
(* - AP doesn't have the bandwidth to research the "percentage-of-preseason-All-American-candidates-who-are-suspended-by-their-coach-but-who-nonetheless-finish-out-their-eligibility." But let's just say that the odds aren't great. You know, if betting were legal.)
Back to Beilein's extension: Whatever.
After all, Notre Dame famously gave Charlie Weis an extension early in his tenure, and look how that turned out. (Of course, Weis was 5-2 and #9 in the country at the time he got his new deal.)
The best-case long-term scenario, at least for Michigan fans, is that Beilein's extension empowered him to challenge Harris, and subsequently suspend him. (Potentially) good for team discipline long-term. Not such a good sign as to how the season has gone so far, which perhaps explains the underachieving record.)
But Beilein is not the only ex-Morgantown resident who is now coaching in Ann Arbor. Wolverine football coach Rich Rodriguez has now finished his second season at Michigan, with a combined record of 8-16, and perhaps more alarmingly, won just three conference games in 16 starts.
Are fans -- or for that matter journalists, commentators, or Jay Bilas -- happy with Rich Rod?
Well, he's probably not talking to the AD about a contract extension.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Elite Pretenders
For the second night in a row in college basketball, a BCS-conference title contender tried to elevate itself. And for the second night in a row, the established order turned away a challenge.
Last night in upstate New York, Georgetown sprinted to a 14-0 start before letting the Syracuse Orange back into the game -- in a big way -- in being outscored by 31 the rest of the way. The Orange, behind G Andy Rautins and F Wesley Johnson, showed that they are well-deserving of their current Top-5 ranking.
A year after the Big East dreamed of sending four teams to the Final Four, it was supposed to be a down year; instead, the conference has six teams in the current AP Top-25 (five in the current KenPom Top-25, but eight (half the league) in the Top-40). The Beast is back.
And Feb. 27th -- Villanova (18-1, 7-0) at Syracuse (20-1, 7-1) -- looms large.
In the Big Ten, meanwhile, Michigan hoped to start on the road back to national prominence when it hosted #5 Michigan State. Armed with a student body seemingly hopped up on Beilein-ball, the Wolverines appeared came back in the second half to take the lead with less than a minute to go.
With 38 seconds remaining, Michigan's DeShawn Sims missed a corner jumper badly. The Spartans' Kalin Lucas drained a 15-foot jumper to take a one-point lead. Sims had a chance to redeem himself with 1.5 left, but a tough layup slipped off the front rim.
And Maize-and-Blue fans wonder if raiding Morgantown was worth it.
Last night in upstate New York, Georgetown sprinted to a 14-0 start before letting the Syracuse Orange back into the game -- in a big way -- in being outscored by 31 the rest of the way. The Orange, behind G Andy Rautins and F Wesley Johnson, showed that they are well-deserving of their current Top-5 ranking.
A year after the Big East dreamed of sending four teams to the Final Four, it was supposed to be a down year; instead, the conference has six teams in the current AP Top-25 (five in the current KenPom Top-25, but eight (half the league) in the Top-40). The Beast is back.
And Feb. 27th -- Villanova (18-1, 7-0) at Syracuse (20-1, 7-1) -- looms large.
In the Big Ten, meanwhile, Michigan hoped to start on the road back to national prominence when it hosted #5 Michigan State. Armed with a student body seemingly hopped up on Beilein-ball, the Wolverines appeared came back in the second half to take the lead with less than a minute to go.
With 38 seconds remaining, Michigan's DeShawn Sims missed a corner jumper badly. The Spartans' Kalin Lucas drained a 15-foot jumper to take a one-point lead. Sims had a chance to redeem himself with 1.5 left, but a tough layup slipped off the front rim.
And Maize-and-Blue fans wonder if raiding Morgantown was worth it.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
End of an Era - A.P. Edition
Allerton's Point sends a shout-out to long-time NBA vet Dikembe Mutombo, whose career apparently came to an end last night following a knee injury.
His finger-wagging after a block shot remains a cultural milestone for those 'of a certain age.'
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
NCAA Final
Following up on the last post, the final score in the NCAA championship game was of course, UNC 89 Michigan State 72 in a game that was not even as close as the score indicated.
Obviously a sample size of one is meaningless, although the Pomeroy ratings did not distinguish themselves with the 14-game sample discussed here either.
Obviously a sample size of one is meaningless, although the Pomeroy ratings did not distinguish themselves with the 14-game sample discussed here either.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Another Test for Pomeroy
KenPom predicts a win by UNC tonight, 80-77, with a 63% likelihood.
The line, in contrast, is UNC (-7.5), and the money line is UNC (-370), or that you must wager 370 to win 100 with UNC.(*)
In short, KenPom sees the game as closer than the general public; it also interesting that KenPom has the game played on a "Neutral" court, when most observers give the Ford Field crowd as a home game for MSU.
* - Sportsbook.com, strictly for entertainment purposes.
The line, in contrast, is UNC (-7.5), and the money line is UNC (-370), or that you must wager 370 to win 100 with UNC.(*)
In short, KenPom sees the game as closer than the general public; it also interesting that KenPom has the game played on a "Neutral" court, when most observers give the Ford Field crowd as a home game for MSU.
* - Sportsbook.com, strictly for entertainment purposes.
GIGO?
Ken Pomeroy has done a terrific job documenting and analyzing data relating to college basketball, much like Bill James for baseball a generation ago. His blog (and writing at Basketball Prospectus) has introduced new stats such as "Effective Height" and "Defensive Fingerprint." Stats such as these have given observers a set of tools to use to evaluate College Basketball teams.
That being said, the core stat -- the Pomeroy Rating -- has been less than stellar during this NCAA tournament. Although there were few major upsets in the first two rounds of the tournament (meaning that the "power conference" teams mainly survived to the Sweet Sixteen Round), Pomeroy's ratings have had middling results.
With that in mind, let's take a tour back through each of the four regions, comparing Pomeroy's ratings against other ranking systems: the NCAA Men's Committee itself (NCAA), the final AP poll (AP), and RPI (Ratings Percentage Index, as calculated here. (RPI))
Only Sweet Sixteen and later games are used, to try and emphasize the differences between the systems. (After all, every system will get the 1-16 and 2-15 games correctly; by the time you reach the round of 16, the choices are hard, as anyone who's ever done a bracket will tell you.) Note that while KenPom systems remains 'dynamic', adding information from each successive game and updating results, the NCAA, AP, and RPI ratings used here were 'fixed' at the end of the regular season.
EAST
Sweet Sixteen actual teams: Pitt vs. Xavier; Villanova vs. Duke
SOUTH
Sweet Sixteen actual teams: UNC vs. Gonzaga; Syracuse vs. Oklahoma
MIDWEST
Sweet Sixteen actual teams: Louisville vs. Arizona; Kansas vs, Michigan State.
WEST
Sweet Sixteen Actual teams: UConn vs. Purdue; Missouri vs. Memphis
FINAL FOUR:
UNC vs. Villanova; MSU vs. UConn.
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:
UNC vs. MSU
As all four systems have the same prediction for tonight's game, there can be no change in the final standings, which leaves the much maligned RPI as the 'most accurate', at least for this year.
That being said, the core stat -- the Pomeroy Rating -- has been less than stellar during this NCAA tournament. Although there were few major upsets in the first two rounds of the tournament (meaning that the "power conference" teams mainly survived to the Sweet Sixteen Round), Pomeroy's ratings have had middling results.
With that in mind, let's take a tour back through each of the four regions, comparing Pomeroy's ratings against other ranking systems: the NCAA Men's Committee itself (NCAA), the final AP poll (AP), and RPI (Ratings Percentage Index, as calculated here. (RPI))
Only Sweet Sixteen and later games are used, to try and emphasize the differences between the systems. (After all, every system will get the 1-16 and 2-15 games correctly; by the time you reach the round of 16, the choices are hard, as anyone who's ever done a bracket will tell you.) Note that while KenPom systems remains 'dynamic', adding information from each successive game and updating results, the NCAA, AP, and RPI ratings used here were 'fixed' at the end of the regular season.
EAST
Sweet Sixteen actual teams: Pitt vs. Xavier; Villanova vs. Duke
Predicted results:
NCAA: (1) Pitt over (4) Xav (correct); (2) Duke over (3) Nova (incorrect). (1-1)
AP: (4) Pitt over (20) Xav (correct); (6) Duke over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-1)
RPI: (2) Pitt over (17) Xav (correct); (1) Duke over (13) Nova (incorrect) (1-1)
KenPom: (5) Pitt over (20) Xav (correct); (11) Duke over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-1)
Finals: Pitt vs. Villanova
NCAA: (1) Pitt over (3) Nova (incorrect). (1-2, cumulative)
AP: (4) Pitt over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-2)
RPI: (2) Pitt over (13) Nova (incorrect) (1-2)
KenPom: (5) Pitt over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-2)
SOUTH
Sweet Sixteen actual teams: UNC vs. Gonzaga; Syracuse vs. Oklahoma
NCAA: (1) UNC over (4) Gonzaga (correct); (2) OU over (3) Cuse (correct) (3-2, cumulative)
AP: (2) UNC over (10) Gonzaga (corret); (7) OU over (13) Cuse (correct) (3-2)
RPI: (3) UNC over (26) Zaga (correct); (5) OU over (12) Cuse (correct); (3-2)
KenPom: (3) UNC over (8) Zaga (correct); (13) OU over (15) Cuse (correct); (3-2)
Finals: UNC vs. OU
NCAA: (1) UNC over (2) OU over (4-2, cumulative)
AP: (2) UNC over (7) OU (correct) (4-2)
RPI: (3) UNC over (5) OU over (correct); (4-2)
KenPom: (3) UNC over (13) (correct); (4-2)
MIDWEST
Sweet Sixteen actual teams: Louisville vs. Arizona; Kansas vs, Michigan State.
NCAA: (1) Lou over (12) Ariz (correct); (2) MSU over (3) KU (correct) (6-2, cumulative)
AP: (1) Lou over (NR) Ariz (correct); (8) MSU over (14) KU (correct) (6-2)
RPI: (4) Lou over (62) Ariz (correct); (6) MSU over (11) KU (correct) (6-2)
KenPom: (4) Lou over (40) Ariz (correct); (7) MSU over (10) KU (correct) (6-2)
Finals: Lou vs. MSU
NCAA: (1) Lou over (2) MSU (incorrect) (6-3, cumulative)
AP: (1) Lou over (8) MSU (incorrect) (6-3)
RPI: (4) Lou over (6) MSU (incorrect)(6-3)
KenPom: (4) Lou over (7) MSU (incorrect) (6-3)
WEST
Sweet Sixteen Actual teams: UConn vs. Purdue; Missouri vs. Memphis
NCAA: (1) UConn over (5) Purdue (correct); (2) Mem over (3) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)
AP: (5) UConn over (17) Purdue (correct); (3) Mem over (9) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)
RPI: (8) UConn over (20) Purdue (correct); (7) Mem over (10) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)
KenPom: (2) Uconn over (17) Purdue (correct); (1) Mem over (6) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)
Finals: UConn vs. Mizzou
NCAA: (1) UConn over (3) Mizzou (correct) (8-4, cumulative)
AP: (5) UConn over (9) Mizzou (correct) (8-4)
RPI: (8) UConn over (10) Mizzou (correct) (8-4)
KenPom: (2) Uconn over (6) Mizzou (correct) (8-4)
FINAL FOUR:
UNC vs. Villanova; MSU vs. UConn.
NCAA: (1) UConn over (2) MSU (incorrect); (1) UNC over (3) Nova (correct) (9-5, cumulative)
AP: (5) UConn vs. (8) MSU (incorrect); (2) UNC over (11) Nova (correct); (9-5)
RPI: (6) MSU over (8) UConn (correct); (3) UNC over (13) Nova (correct) (10-4)
KenPom: (2) UConn over (7) MSU (incorrect); (3) UNC over (14) Nova (correct)(9-5)
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:
UNC vs. MSU
NCAA: (1) UNC over (2) MSU
AP: (2) UNC over (8) MSU
RPI: (3) UNC over (6) MSU
KenPom: (3) UNC over (7) MSU
As all four systems have the same prediction for tonight's game, there can be no change in the final standings, which leaves the much maligned RPI as the 'most accurate', at least for this year.
RPI: 11-4 or 10-5
NCAA: 10-5 or 9-6
AP: 10-5 or 9-6
KenPom: 10-5 or 9-6
More Update (Cowbells?)
John Rich's "Shuttin' Down Detroit" crept up from #13 to #12 on the Country Billboard charts. (In other country news, Carrie Underwood won "Performer of the Year" at the Academy of Country Music awards last night.)
Congrats to Coach Craig Robinson -- Oregon State knocked off UTEP in El Paso in the third and decided game of the CBI Finals. OSU finished the year with a 18-18 record.
Congrats to Coach Craig Robinson -- Oregon State knocked off UTEP in El Paso in the third and decided game of the CBI Finals. OSU finished the year with a 18-18 record.
Friday, April 3, 2009
CBI Update
Oregon State and UTEP square off tonight in the third and deciding game of the final of the CBI Tournament. (The two teams split the first two games, each winning at home.)
OSU (17-18) is the third-most-improved college basketball team this year, having won just six games a year ago. The Beavers trail Mizzou (+15) and LSU (+14).
OSU (17-18) is the third-most-improved college basketball team this year, having won just six games a year ago. The Beavers trail Mizzou (+15) and LSU (+14).
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Re-Shuffling the Minor Tourneys
Richmond and Oregon State both won last night in the CBI, and remain on a collision course -- but thanks to the haphazard nature of small tourneys, that confrontation will be put off for one more round.
The CBI, which is 'broadcast' on the low-distribution HDNet, apparently reshuffled its brackets yesterday, to lighten the travel load for the four remaining schools.
Oregon State will play (at home) against Pac-10 rival Stanford for the fourth time this year. Richmond will host UTEP.
Both games are on Thursday night, with the finals to take place early next week in a best 2-of-3 format.
Meanwhile, in the NIT, a confrontation of two of the best guards in the country was won by St. Mary's over Davidson. Stephen Curry had 26; Patty Mills, 23, with 10 assists.
Next interesting NIT matchup: Notre Dame hosting Kentucky, in a game that neither coach wants to lose. At all.
The CBI, which is 'broadcast' on the low-distribution HDNet, apparently reshuffled its brackets yesterday, to lighten the travel load for the four remaining schools.
Oregon State will play (at home) against Pac-10 rival Stanford for the fourth time this year. Richmond will host UTEP.
Both games are on Thursday night, with the finals to take place early next week in a best 2-of-3 format.
Meanwhile, in the NIT, a confrontation of two of the best guards in the country was won by St. Mary's over Davidson. Stephen Curry had 26; Patty Mills, 23, with 10 assists.
Next interesting NIT matchup: Notre Dame hosting Kentucky, in a game that neither coach wants to lose. At all.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Minor Tourney Updates
Richmond and Oregon State remain on a collision course in the CBI. Both play at home on Monday.
Meanwhile, Northwestern's season ended in Tulsa, the Wildcats running out of time. The Hurricanes remain in the hunt to defend their CBI title.
Meanwhile, Northwestern's season ended in Tulsa, the Wildcats running out of time. The Hurricanes remain in the hunt to defend their CBI title.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Other Post-Season Hoops
Although the main March Madness draw is the NCAA tourney, a few notes for the lesser brackets:
* In the NIT, Northwestern makes its fourth all-time appearance in post-season play tomorrow night at Tulsa. This should be a good game, as the teams are evenly matched, but the Cats will have to overcome a home crowd at the Reynolds Center.
* A year ago, Tulsa won the inaugural CBI (College Basketball Invitational) with a 2-1 series win over Bradley. This year's CBI field includes both Oregon State and Richmond. For OSU (13-17), it's the first trip to the post-season since 2004-05; for Richmond (18-15), the CBI is bit of a consolation prize after the NIT (seemingly) passed.
* OSU and Richmond will meet if both win two games in the CBI.
* No word on whether a TV at 1600 Pennsylvania will be tuned to HDNet for the OSU/Houston opening round game. 10:00pm ET start will mean a late night for interested observers.
* In the NIT, Northwestern makes its fourth all-time appearance in post-season play tomorrow night at Tulsa. This should be a good game, as the teams are evenly matched, but the Cats will have to overcome a home crowd at the Reynolds Center.
* A year ago, Tulsa won the inaugural CBI (College Basketball Invitational) with a 2-1 series win over Bradley. This year's CBI field includes both Oregon State and Richmond. For OSU (13-17), it's the first trip to the post-season since 2004-05; for Richmond (18-15), the CBI is bit of a consolation prize after the NIT (seemingly) passed.
* OSU and Richmond will meet if both win two games in the CBI.
* No word on whether a TV at 1600 Pennsylvania will be tuned to HDNet for the OSU/Houston opening round game. 10:00pm ET start will mean a late night for interested observers.
Friday, March 13, 2009
6 OTs !
All-time classic game played last night in a match-up of two original Big East schools: Syracuse and UConn. 40 minutes of regulation and 30 minutes of overtime later, the Orange moved on with a 127-117 win.
A few thoughts:
* While six OTs was one shy of the NCAA record of seven, it has been a long time since two such contrasting, yet evenly-match power teams where involved in an epic game. The Cuse's offense runs through guards 6'0" (maybe) Jonny Flynn and 6'4" Eric Devendorf. UConn is built around 7'3" Hasheem Thabeet.
* Either team could win the National Championship, assuming they can recover from the emotion of last night.
* Orange junior guard Andy Rautins, is a tremendous passer. It seems hard to believe that he averages just 3 assists per game.
* The winner of the game (Syracuse, as it turns out) got a break with West Virginia winning over Pitt. Both WVU and Cuse will play their third game in three days tonight; if Pitt had advanced, the extra bye day may have played a bigger role.
* UConn associate head coach George Blaney earned his salary last night: after every whistle, he was subjected to a rhetorical monologue from UConn head coach Jim Calhoun.
A few thoughts:
* While six OTs was one shy of the NCAA record of seven, it has been a long time since two such contrasting, yet evenly-match power teams where involved in an epic game. The Cuse's offense runs through guards 6'0" (maybe) Jonny Flynn and 6'4" Eric Devendorf. UConn is built around 7'3" Hasheem Thabeet.
* Either team could win the National Championship, assuming they can recover from the emotion of last night.
* Orange junior guard Andy Rautins, is a tremendous passer. It seems hard to believe that he averages just 3 assists per game.
* The winner of the game (Syracuse, as it turns out) got a break with West Virginia winning over Pitt. Both WVU and Cuse will play their third game in three days tonight; if Pitt had advanced, the extra bye day may have played a bigger role.
* UConn associate head coach George Blaney earned his salary last night: after every whistle, he was subjected to a rhetorical monologue from UConn head coach Jim Calhoun.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
The Mouse That Roared (pt 2)
The bubble tightened a little bit for a number of BCS teams with Cleveland State's win over Butler in the Horizon League final.
Cleveland State heads back to the NCAA for the first time since 1986. You may remember that team. Bob Knight sure does.
And so does John Feinstein.
Cleveland State heads back to the NCAA for the first time since 1986. You may remember that team. Bob Knight sure does.
And so does John Feinstein.
Monday, March 9, 2009
The Sound of Bubble(s) Popping
(And no, it's not another depressing economic post -- unless you are an Arizona fan.)
Casual fans of the NCAA tournament may be confused next Monday morning, when millions of Americans participate in a true annual-rite-of-spring: when the NCAA brackets are announced, heartthrob Davidson is likely to be on the outside looking in.
Davidson ran away with the Southern Conference's regular season, finishing 18-2 (26-7 overall), and winning the Southern Division by 3 games. But in the Tournament semifinals last night, the Wildcats were upset by the College of Charleston (26-7, 15-5), and the CofC Cougars will play Chattanoga tonight for an automatic NCAA bid.
Ranked #70 on the Pomeroy computer, and with only a single win over likely-NCAA teams (over WVU on neutral floor; losses to Duke, Purdue, and Oklahoma, albeit all on the road, plus Butler (loss at home)), Davidson seems unlikely to earn a second-life thanks to the NCAA Committee.
Moreover, since spraining his ankle in mid-February, All-American guard Stephen Curry has been operating with somewhat reduced effectiveness -- his scoring is down slightly since the injury (27.1 ppg vs. 28.9 before the injury) and his accuracy has been down slightly as well (48-109 (44.0%) FG in last six games, vs. 244-532 (45.8%) prior.)
But Davidson is undoubtedly the type of "mid-major" team that casual -- and potential "Cold Case" -- viewers love to root for. Davidson is on-the-bubble, which means it's getting warm in the room for BCS middlers like Michigan, Providence, and Arizona.
And finally, tonight's "Championship Week" also features Siena vs. Niagra, in a match-up of the two best in the Metro Atlantic. While Siena attempted to schedule itself into an at-large bid, it was only able to beat two NCAA-bound teams (Cornell and Northern Iowa), with losses to Pitt, Kansas, Tenn); tonight is likely a play-in game for the two evenly-matched teams (#68 and #69 on the Pomeroy computer).
Finally, about Cornell: while this year marks the first time since 1958-59 (Dartmouth) that a non-Princeton/Penn team has repeated, Big Red fans should still act as though "they have been there before."
Casual fans of the NCAA tournament may be confused next Monday morning, when millions of Americans participate in a true annual-rite-of-spring: when the NCAA brackets are announced, heartthrob Davidson is likely to be on the outside looking in.
Davidson ran away with the Southern Conference's regular season, finishing 18-2 (26-7 overall), and winning the Southern Division by 3 games. But in the Tournament semifinals last night, the Wildcats were upset by the College of Charleston (26-7, 15-5), and the CofC Cougars will play Chattanoga tonight for an automatic NCAA bid.
Ranked #70 on the Pomeroy computer, and with only a single win over likely-NCAA teams (over WVU on neutral floor; losses to Duke, Purdue, and Oklahoma, albeit all on the road, plus Butler (loss at home)), Davidson seems unlikely to earn a second-life thanks to the NCAA Committee.
Moreover, since spraining his ankle in mid-February, All-American guard Stephen Curry has been operating with somewhat reduced effectiveness -- his scoring is down slightly since the injury (27.1 ppg vs. 28.9 before the injury) and his accuracy has been down slightly as well (48-109 (44.0%) FG in last six games, vs. 244-532 (45.8%) prior.)
But Davidson is undoubtedly the type of "mid-major" team that casual -- and potential "Cold Case" -- viewers love to root for. Davidson is on-the-bubble, which means it's getting warm in the room for BCS middlers like Michigan, Providence, and Arizona.
And finally, tonight's "Championship Week" also features Siena vs. Niagra, in a match-up of the two best in the Metro Atlantic. While Siena attempted to schedule itself into an at-large bid, it was only able to beat two NCAA-bound teams (Cornell and Northern Iowa), with losses to Pitt, Kansas, Tenn); tonight is likely a play-in game for the two evenly-matched teams (#68 and #69 on the Pomeroy computer).
Finally, about Cornell: while this year marks the first time since 1958-59 (Dartmouth) that a non-Princeton/Penn team has repeated, Big Red fans should still act as though "they have been there before."
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