10:05 #NCAAChamp. Matt Howard and Mack do 15 small things each game to help BU win...
9:47 #NCAAChamp This game to be played in the 40s?!?!?
9:42 #NCAAchamp. Offensive rebounds killing Butler late first half
9:35 #NCAAchamp. Butler doubling the high ball-screen, not help-and-recover. New look for Butler ( andUConn?)
9:15 #NCAAChamp. We'll know early. If Butler's defensive physicality can handle UConn's speed, then the Bulldogs have a good chance. And that means -- unlike most underdogs -- Butler wants the refs to "let them play"
Showing posts with label Final Four. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Final Four. Show all posts
Monday, April 4, 2011
Thoughts on Championship Monday
A few "mind droppings" on the eve of the NCAA Championship:
* Over/under. If you had surveyed the thousands in Indy a year ago, and told them one of these two teams (Duke or Butler) would be back in the Final a year later, how many would have guessed the Bulldogs?
And what if I told you that Gordon Hayward -- Butler's best player and a Top-10 NBA pick -- was going to leave early? What would you say then?
* Hayward. Speaking of Hayward, what thoughts are going through his mind tonight -- as the 36-41 Jazz -- winding down a lost season -- prepare to play a meaningless game against the Lakers tomorrow?
Surely he's rooting for his former teammates, and might even be in Reliant Stadium tonight. But he's averaging 4.5 points per game (only 15.5 minutes per night) for a non-playoff bound team. How much would he pay to be back on the floor for "one shining moment"?
And by how many would the Bulldogs -- underdogs by 3.5 as of game time -- be favored if Hayward could suit up?
* The shadow of Jeff Capel. Shaka Smart's decision to stay at VCU is the latest in a series of decisions for mid-major coaches to remain at their (comfortable, and grateful) mid-major schools. In the last 12 months, we've seen Brad Stevens (Butler) and FoAP Chris Mooney (Richmond) chose to stay home, rather than make the jump to "high-major."
Perhaps the easiest way to explain this is by pointing to Jeff Capel. In 2006, Capel was the "hottest mid-major" coach. Coming out of Duke, he jumped to Oklahoma and proceeded -- in his third year -- to take a Blake Griffin-led Sooners team to the Elite Eight. Two years later -- despite a 96-69 record -- it's over. Thanks for the memories.
Yes, the high major life is "The Life."
But you had best win. And win now.
* Over/under. If you had surveyed the thousands in Indy a year ago, and told them one of these two teams (Duke or Butler) would be back in the Final a year later, how many would have guessed the Bulldogs?
And what if I told you that Gordon Hayward -- Butler's best player and a Top-10 NBA pick -- was going to leave early? What would you say then?
* Hayward. Speaking of Hayward, what thoughts are going through his mind tonight -- as the 36-41 Jazz -- winding down a lost season -- prepare to play a meaningless game against the Lakers tomorrow?
Surely he's rooting for his former teammates, and might even be in Reliant Stadium tonight. But he's averaging 4.5 points per game (only 15.5 minutes per night) for a non-playoff bound team. How much would he pay to be back on the floor for "one shining moment"?
And by how many would the Bulldogs -- underdogs by 3.5 as of game time -- be favored if Hayward could suit up?
* The shadow of Jeff Capel. Shaka Smart's decision to stay at VCU is the latest in a series of decisions for mid-major coaches to remain at their (comfortable, and grateful) mid-major schools. In the last 12 months, we've seen Brad Stevens (Butler) and FoAP Chris Mooney (Richmond) chose to stay home, rather than make the jump to "high-major."
Perhaps the easiest way to explain this is by pointing to Jeff Capel. In 2006, Capel was the "hottest mid-major" coach. Coming out of Duke, he jumped to Oklahoma and proceeded -- in his third year -- to take a Blake Griffin-led Sooners team to the Elite Eight. Two years later -- despite a 96-69 record -- it's over. Thanks for the memories.
Yes, the high major life is "The Life."
But you had best win. And win now.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Updated: Most Memorable NCAA Semifinal Games, Part II
Back in 2007, in connection The New Republic, I put together the "Most Memorable NCAA Semifinal Games" since 1979. With four more Final Fours since that list, and with two highly-anticipated semifinals approaching on Saturday, it's time to update the list.)
Just as a reminder, this list is only for semifinal games, not Championship games. So no Jimmy V looking for someone to hug, no Keith Smart from the corner, no Mateen Cleaves dancing (although that looks like the start of another list...)
The list also begins in 1979, the year of the Bird-Magic final. That year’s Final Four was memorable for other reasons, as it featured not one, but two Cinderellas (Bird’s Indiana State, although a #1 seed, was from a mid-major conference; and #9 Penn), as well as another team (DePaul) that looked as though it was on the verge of becoming the dominant force in college basketball in the early 1980s. With Mark Aguirre (who was the NBA’s #1 overall pick in 1981) and Terry Cummings (#2 overall in 1982), the Blue Demons were derailed by UCLA in 1980 (UCLA eventually played in the National Championship that year), and then stunned by St. Joseph’s in 1981 in an early round game – albeit underappreciated today – that surely ranks among the greatest upsets in NCAA history.
This year's Final Four also features two mid-majors, Butler (back for the second straight year -- and making the most of it with a memorable semi-final a year ago) and Virginia Commonwealth.
Without further ado, Numbers 5 through 1:
5. (#1) Michigan 81 / (#1) Kentucky 78 (OT) (1993)
A year removed from the heartbreak of the ‘Laettner game’, Kentucky’s Rick Pitino brought a hungry and talented team to New Orleans, with players such as Jamal Mashburn, Travis Ford, and Jared Prickett, and an average margin of victory of 31 in its four NCAA tournament games. But Michigan’s Fab Five – Chris Webber, Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, Jimmy King, and Ray Jackson –were not only one of the best recruiting classes ever, but a still-influential fashion statement: they invented – or at least widely popularized – the baggy-short-look for colleges.
Facing a double digit deficit with 14 minutes left, the Wildcats started pounding the ball to Mashburn, and eventually tied the game with 1:26 left in regulation. But when ‘Mash’ fouled out, Pitino had to mix-and-match lineups in the extra period; finally with four second left in the OT, and Michigan clinging to a 3-point lead, Webber made two straight deflections on in-bound plays, including a ‘heads-up’ second one from the baseline where he tipped the ball back towards mid-court, forcing a desperation heave by Kentucky’s Tony Delk that fell short.
But like Freddie Brown in 1982, Webber’s reputation as a crafty end-of-game player would last just 48 hours.
Interesting sidenote: the 1993 Final Four featured three #1s (Michigan, Kentucky, and UNC) and one #2 (Kansas) – the best ‘chalk’ ever.
4. 1984 (both games)
(#1) Georgetown 53 / (#1) Kentucky 40
At halftime, the budding Georgetown dynasty was at risk. The Hoyas had suffered through two scoring droughts of more than 5:00 minutes in the first half, trailed at one point 27-15, and more importantly, had their franchise center, Patrick Ewing, saddled with three personal fouls.
But coming out for the second half, it was Kentucky who went cold. The Cats went scoreless for the first 10 minutes of the second half, scored 2 points, then went another 7 minutes without another score. The whole crowd – including Georgetown fans – cheered when the Cats ended the worst drought in Final Four history.
Interesting sidenote: this game was only the second-biggest disaster that Kentucky’s Sam Bowie (was involved with during 1984, although he was only an innocent bystander in the June meltdown in Portland.
(#2) Houston 49 / (#7) Virginia 47 (OT)
Before there was a “Ewing Theory”, there was a “Sampson Theory.” In 1984, Virginia looked to be undergoing a rebuilding year, having lost 3-time college player-of-the-year Ralph Sampson to graduation the year before; but after going to just one Final Four with Sampson (in 1981), Othell Wilson took an undermanned and undersized team to the brink of the title game.
Houston’s Guy Lewis – the 80s coaching version of Dick Cheney – had seemingly learned nothing from his experience in 1983 (see below). The entire game was played at UVA’s slow, patient pace, despite Houston’s superior athleticism. In the last minute of regulation, the Cougars turned the ball over three times without a call of timeout, and barely escaped the NC State-esque ending. Georgetown would overpower Houston two nights later, however.
3. NEW (#1) Kansas 84 / (#1) North Carolina 66 (2008)
The only time all four #1-seeds advanced to the Final Four, although Kansas had to hold off the ultimate Cinderella (#10-Davidson) in the Elite Eight game to get there. The Kansas/UNC game itself was played at a high level, with Kansas sprinting out to a 40-12 lead, withstanding a furious UNC rally that closed the gap to a mere 4 points (54-50 with 11 minutes left in the game), and finally pulling away to the final margin.
What makes this game so memorable, however, is the announcer. Billy Packer had called every Final Four in the Magic-Bird era (actually, every FF since 1975), and was the defining voice of the Final Four. But at the same time, he seemed to court controversy, especially with regard to rising Mid-Majors like St. Joes (in 2004) and George Mason (in 2006).
The final straw came for Packer in the middle of the Kansas first half run. With the score 38-12, Packer declared the game "over" as the broadcast cut to commercial break. Although UNC eventually lost, the game was in fact, a long way from over.
But Packer's career was. Three months after the game, Packer was replaced by Clark Kellogg.
2. (#2) Duke 79 / (#1) UNLV 77 (1991)
[No video available]
A year removed from a 103-73 pasting in the Championship Game from the same Runnin’ Rebels (like Florida this year, the core of the UNLV team returned as defending champs), Duke ended a 45-game winning streak and ended talk of ‘greatest team of all time.’
UNLV had rolled through the regular season and the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament with an average victory margin of 29, and had rarely been involved in a tight game. And when point guard Greg Anthony fouled out late in the second half, the Rebels were suddenly rudderless in the closest game they had played in close to two years. Bobby Hurley, the slightest man on the court – and who, along with Christian Laettner, helped put the “detest” in “Duke” for many – belied his reputation (to that point) as a poor shooter by burying a huge 3-ball with a little over two minutes remaining to bring Duke within 2. Brian Davis then gave Duke the lead, with a conventional three-point play, and the UNLV reign ended in a haze of missed foul-shots (Larry Johnson went 1-3 from the line), and a botched last-second ‘play.’
Two nights later, the Blue Devils escaped the can’t-win-the-big-one tag by beating Kansas for the National Championship. A year later they repeated, a feat that the Gators are seeking to match in Atlanta.
1. (#1) Houston 94 / (#1) Louisville 81 (1983)
Phi Sla(m)ma Ja(m)ma vs. the Doctors of Dunk. Thought to be the ‘real’ championship game (especially since the other semifinal featured two low seeds (#6 NC State vs. #4 Georgia).
And the game delivered. Referee Hank Nichols calls the game “The Blitzkrieg.” At one point, there were 11 dunks in 14 minutes. A note that was passed down press row during the game: “Welcome to the 21st Century.”
An end-to-end game in a real college gym (not a dome) that featured (H)Akeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, Michael Young, Larry Micheaux, and Alvin Franklin for Houston and Milt Wagner, Rodney McCrae, Scooter McCrae, Billy Thompson (one of the first ‘super frosh’), and Lancaster Gordon for Louisville.
When Houston’s sixth man, Benny (called “The Outlaw”, but who would have fit in on the Jackson’s Victory tour) Anders, was asked, in the post-game interview room, about “one of the dunks” he had to ask, “which one?”
Of course, earlier in the season Anders had said, “I like the dunk. It’s a high percentage shot.”
This is a must-Tivo on ESPN Classic, if you have the opportunity.
Interesting sidenote #1: Houston starter Micheaux fouled out with 13:28 left because Guy Lewis didn’t know he had four fouls; two nights later in the final against NC State, Lewis made the same mistake when Drexler picked up his fourth foul with 2:38 left in the first half!
Interesting sidenote #2: In her story after the NC State victory in the final, then-Boston Globe reporter Lesley Visser asked rhetorically about Lewis’ decision to slow the pace midway in the second half:
Interesting Sidenote #3: The toughest of all of the Cougars, Larry (“Mr. Mean”) Micheaux is now a high school teacher in Stafford, Texas. You never know.
I couldn’t include every great game, or memorable moment in this list. A few that ‘just missed’: Duke 81 / Indiana 78 (1992), Coach K vs. Bob Knight (“The circle is now complete. When I left you, I was but the learner; now I am the master.”); or Duke 70 / Florida 65 (1994), giving Grant Hill the chance to win three titles; or Kentucky 86 / Stanford 85 (OT) (1998). And of course, without semifinal wins like NC State over Georgia in 1983, or Villanova over Memphis State in 1985, the memories of those respective Finals would have a different flavor.
But here’s hoping that this weekend’s games add a few more memories to this list.
Just as a reminder, this list is only for semifinal games, not Championship games. So no Jimmy V looking for someone to hug, no Keith Smart from the corner, no Mateen Cleaves dancing (although that looks like the start of another list...)
The list also begins in 1979, the year of the Bird-Magic final. That year’s Final Four was memorable for other reasons, as it featured not one, but two Cinderellas (Bird’s Indiana State, although a #1 seed, was from a mid-major conference; and #9 Penn), as well as another team (DePaul) that looked as though it was on the verge of becoming the dominant force in college basketball in the early 1980s. With Mark Aguirre (who was the NBA’s #1 overall pick in 1981) and Terry Cummings (#2 overall in 1982), the Blue Demons were derailed by UCLA in 1980 (UCLA eventually played in the National Championship that year), and then stunned by St. Joseph’s in 1981 in an early round game – albeit underappreciated today – that surely ranks among the greatest upsets in NCAA history.
This year's Final Four also features two mid-majors, Butler (back for the second straight year -- and making the most of it with a memorable semi-final a year ago) and Virginia Commonwealth.
Without further ado, Numbers 5 through 1:
5. (#1) Michigan 81 / (#1) Kentucky 78 (OT) (1993)
A year removed from the heartbreak of the ‘Laettner game’, Kentucky’s Rick Pitino brought a hungry and talented team to New Orleans, with players such as Jamal Mashburn, Travis Ford, and Jared Prickett, and an average margin of victory of 31 in its four NCAA tournament games. But Michigan’s Fab Five – Chris Webber, Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, Jimmy King, and Ray Jackson –were not only one of the best recruiting classes ever, but a still-influential fashion statement: they invented – or at least widely popularized – the baggy-short-look for colleges.
Facing a double digit deficit with 14 minutes left, the Wildcats started pounding the ball to Mashburn, and eventually tied the game with 1:26 left in regulation. But when ‘Mash’ fouled out, Pitino had to mix-and-match lineups in the extra period; finally with four second left in the OT, and Michigan clinging to a 3-point lead, Webber made two straight deflections on in-bound plays, including a ‘heads-up’ second one from the baseline where he tipped the ball back towards mid-court, forcing a desperation heave by Kentucky’s Tony Delk that fell short.
But like Freddie Brown in 1982, Webber’s reputation as a crafty end-of-game player would last just 48 hours.
Interesting sidenote: the 1993 Final Four featured three #1s (Michigan, Kentucky, and UNC) and one #2 (Kansas) – the best ‘chalk’ ever.
4. 1984 (both games)
(#1) Georgetown 53 / (#1) Kentucky 40
At halftime, the budding Georgetown dynasty was at risk. The Hoyas had suffered through two scoring droughts of more than 5:00 minutes in the first half, trailed at one point 27-15, and more importantly, had their franchise center, Patrick Ewing, saddled with three personal fouls.
But coming out for the second half, it was Kentucky who went cold. The Cats went scoreless for the first 10 minutes of the second half, scored 2 points, then went another 7 minutes without another score. The whole crowd – including Georgetown fans – cheered when the Cats ended the worst drought in Final Four history.
Interesting sidenote: this game was only the second-biggest disaster that Kentucky’s Sam Bowie (was involved with during 1984, although he was only an innocent bystander in the June meltdown in Portland.
(#2) Houston 49 / (#7) Virginia 47 (OT)
Before there was a “Ewing Theory”, there was a “Sampson Theory.” In 1984, Virginia looked to be undergoing a rebuilding year, having lost 3-time college player-of-the-year Ralph Sampson to graduation the year before; but after going to just one Final Four with Sampson (in 1981), Othell Wilson took an undermanned and undersized team to the brink of the title game.
Houston’s Guy Lewis – the 80s coaching version of Dick Cheney – had seemingly learned nothing from his experience in 1983 (see below). The entire game was played at UVA’s slow, patient pace, despite Houston’s superior athleticism. In the last minute of regulation, the Cougars turned the ball over three times without a call of timeout, and barely escaped the NC State-esque ending. Georgetown would overpower Houston two nights later, however.
3. NEW (#1) Kansas 84 / (#1) North Carolina 66 (2008)
The only time all four #1-seeds advanced to the Final Four, although Kansas had to hold off the ultimate Cinderella (#10-Davidson) in the Elite Eight game to get there. The Kansas/UNC game itself was played at a high level, with Kansas sprinting out to a 40-12 lead, withstanding a furious UNC rally that closed the gap to a mere 4 points (54-50 with 11 minutes left in the game), and finally pulling away to the final margin.
What makes this game so memorable, however, is the announcer. Billy Packer had called every Final Four in the Magic-Bird era (actually, every FF since 1975), and was the defining voice of the Final Four. But at the same time, he seemed to court controversy, especially with regard to rising Mid-Majors like St. Joes (in 2004) and George Mason (in 2006).
The final straw came for Packer in the middle of the Kansas first half run. With the score 38-12, Packer declared the game "over" as the broadcast cut to commercial break. Although UNC eventually lost, the game was in fact, a long way from over.
But Packer's career was. Three months after the game, Packer was replaced by Clark Kellogg.
2. (#2) Duke 79 / (#1) UNLV 77 (1991)
[No video available]
A year removed from a 103-73 pasting in the Championship Game from the same Runnin’ Rebels (like Florida this year, the core of the UNLV team returned as defending champs), Duke ended a 45-game winning streak and ended talk of ‘greatest team of all time.’
UNLV had rolled through the regular season and the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament with an average victory margin of 29, and had rarely been involved in a tight game. And when point guard Greg Anthony fouled out late in the second half, the Rebels were suddenly rudderless in the closest game they had played in close to two years. Bobby Hurley, the slightest man on the court – and who, along with Christian Laettner, helped put the “detest” in “Duke” for many – belied his reputation (to that point) as a poor shooter by burying a huge 3-ball with a little over two minutes remaining to bring Duke within 2. Brian Davis then gave Duke the lead, with a conventional three-point play, and the UNLV reign ended in a haze of missed foul-shots (Larry Johnson went 1-3 from the line), and a botched last-second ‘play.’
Two nights later, the Blue Devils escaped the can’t-win-the-big-one tag by beating Kansas for the National Championship. A year later they repeated, a feat that the Gators are seeking to match in Atlanta.
1. (#1) Houston 94 / (#1) Louisville 81 (1983)
Phi Sla(m)ma Ja(m)ma vs. the Doctors of Dunk. Thought to be the ‘real’ championship game (especially since the other semifinal featured two low seeds (#6 NC State vs. #4 Georgia).
And the game delivered. Referee Hank Nichols calls the game “The Blitzkrieg.” At one point, there were 11 dunks in 14 minutes. A note that was passed down press row during the game: “Welcome to the 21st Century.”
An end-to-end game in a real college gym (not a dome) that featured (H)Akeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, Michael Young, Larry Micheaux, and Alvin Franklin for Houston and Milt Wagner, Rodney McCrae, Scooter McCrae, Billy Thompson (one of the first ‘super frosh’), and Lancaster Gordon for Louisville.
When Houston’s sixth man, Benny (called “The Outlaw”, but who would have fit in on the Jackson’s Victory tour) Anders, was asked, in the post-game interview room, about “one of the dunks” he had to ask, “which one?”
Of course, earlier in the season Anders had said, “I like the dunk. It’s a high percentage shot.”
This is a must-Tivo on ESPN Classic, if you have the opportunity.
Interesting sidenote #1: Houston starter Micheaux fouled out with 13:28 left because Guy Lewis didn’t know he had four fouls; two nights later in the final against NC State, Lewis made the same mistake when Drexler picked up his fourth foul with 2:38 left in the first half!
Interesting sidenote #2: In her story after the NC State victory in the final, then-Boston Globe reporter Lesley Visser asked rhetorically about Lewis’ decision to slow the pace midway in the second half:
Why, they asked, did Houston coach Guy Lewis, a man who had coached for 27 years, signal for a stall when the team led by seven points with 10 minutes left? Or, as one coach said in a bar after the game, "Ninety-thousand dollars of recruiting on the floor and he has them play like Princeton.
Interesting Sidenote #3: The toughest of all of the Cougars, Larry (“Mr. Mean”) Micheaux is now a high school teacher in Stafford, Texas. You never know.
I couldn’t include every great game, or memorable moment in this list. A few that ‘just missed’: Duke 81 / Indiana 78 (1992), Coach K vs. Bob Knight (“The circle is now complete. When I left you, I was but the learner; now I am the master.”); or Duke 70 / Florida 65 (1994), giving Grant Hill the chance to win three titles; or Kentucky 86 / Stanford 85 (OT) (1998). And of course, without semifinal wins like NC State over Georgia in 1983, or Villanova over Memphis State in 1985, the memories of those respective Finals would have a different flavor.
But here’s hoping that this weekend’s games add a few more memories to this list.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Updated: Most Memorable NCAA Semifinal Games Since 1979
Back in 2007, in connection The New Republic, I put together the "Most Memorable NCAA Semifinal Games" since 1979. With four more Final Fours since that list, and with two highly-anticipated semifinals approaching on Saturday, it's time to update the list.)
(Why 1979? It’s arguably the start of the modern era, with the Bird/Magic final. (That’s still the highest rated TV game, and also – and perhaps not coincidentally -- the first college game I remember watching.))
Here's the updated list, with video (as available):
Honorable Mention:
* (#1) Georgetown 50 / (#3) Louisville 46 (1982) (Trivia: Name that game's MVP, as chosen by CBS. (Answer below))
*(#11) George Mason 58 / (#3) Florida 73 (2006)
For more on these two games, go here.
10. (#3) Michigan 83 / (#1) Illinois 81 (1989)
The 31-5 Flyin’ Illini had been near the top of the national rankings for a good part of the season, and featured future NBA first round draftees in Kendall Gill (#5 pick), Nick Anderson (#11), and Kenny Battle (#27), along with sixth man (and high school legend) Marcus Liberty. Michigan featured future NBA players such as Rumeal Robinson, Loy Vaught, and Glen Rice.
With the score tied late in a back-and-forth game, Michigan’s Terry Mills missed a long jumper, but on the weak side, Sean Higgins followed-up with 0:01 left, and “Michigan man” Steve Fisher moved to a (then) career record of 5-0; somewhere Bo Schembechler is smiling at the memory.
9. (#1) Georgetown 77 / (#1) St. John’s 59 (1985)
Although a dominating performance by the Hoyas made the result a foregone conclusion well before the final horn, the lead-up to the game was enormous. #2, and St. John’s had beaten the then-previously-undefeated Hoyas earlier in the season in the Capital (DC) Center. That win was part of a long St. John’s streak that began when Coach Lou Carnesecca wore on an ‘ugly Italian sweater’ that became his trademark.
In late February, on the Hoyas’ return trip to Madison Square Garden, Georgetown coach John Thompson put on a replica of Carnesecca’s sweater under his suit coat, and opened it up to the crowd just before tipoff; the Hoyas won that night, as well.
Interesting sidenote: the Big East had placed three teams in the Final Four in 1985 (Georgetown, St. John’s, and Villanova), a feat not since equaled.
8. NEW (#5) Butler 52 / (#5) Michigan State 50 (2010)
While the clock struck midnight for George Mason in the 2006 National Semifinal, but mid-major Butler just kept rolling along. Indeed, Butler's bubble would not burst until after the final horn on Monday night.
The "patron saint of analytical coaches" Brad Stevens earned his stat-geek stripes in the last minute of this one, electing to foul Korie Lucious -- despite the presence of hundreds of college coaches in the gym, ready to second guess that decision -- with a 3-point lead.
Top-ten draft pick Gordon Hayward secured the rebound and Butler's place in NCAA history. (Of course, Butler center Matt Howard's place in fashion history had long been immortalized.)
7. (#2) UConn 79 / (#1) Duke 78 (2004)
UConn jumped on Duke early, racing to a 15-4 lead. But the Blue Devils clawed back and eventually took an (seemingly) insurmountable lead of 75-67 lead with just 3 minutes left.
But to the horror of the Dookies everywhere, UConn went on final 12-0 run to drive a dull, splintery, wooden stake – metaphorically, of course – through Duke Nation’s collective heart.
6. (#1) Indiana 97 / (#1) UNLV 93 (1987)
Despite having one of the best shooters in the game (Steve Alford), Indiana Coach Bob Knight had been a vocal opponent of the 3-point line, which was introduced that year. No one adapted faster to the new rule faster than UNLV (37-1 going into the game), and the Rebels hoisted 35 threes in the semis, including 10-for-19 from guard Freddie Banks (38 points). Armon Gilliam added 32, despite facing double-teams (Indiana essentially left UNLV guard Mark Wade unguarded, as he was a poor shooter); Wade, to his credit, handed out 18 assists, a tournament record.
Indiana only took four three-pointers, all by Alford (2-4, on his way to 33 points), and received unexpected help off the bench from a well-coiffed Steve Eyl. After the game Knight was unrepentant: "This game was a classic example of how much influence shooting now has on the game because they got 13 three-pointers and that was worth an extra 13 points. I believe basketball should involve passing and a lot of other things, not just coming down the court and throwing it in."
Trivia Answer: Freddie Brown was the 1982 MVP (as chosen by CBS) for Georgetown in the 1982 semifinal game. His 15 minutes of fame lasted just 48 hours.
(Numbers 1-5 coming tomorrow.)
(Why 1979? It’s arguably the start of the modern era, with the Bird/Magic final. (That’s still the highest rated TV game, and also – and perhaps not coincidentally -- the first college game I remember watching.))
Here's the updated list, with video (as available):
Honorable Mention:
* (#1) Georgetown 50 / (#3) Louisville 46 (1982) (Trivia: Name that game's MVP, as chosen by CBS. (Answer below))
*(#11) George Mason 58 / (#3) Florida 73 (2006)
For more on these two games, go here.
10. (#3) Michigan 83 / (#1) Illinois 81 (1989)
The 31-5 Flyin’ Illini had been near the top of the national rankings for a good part of the season, and featured future NBA first round draftees in Kendall Gill (#5 pick), Nick Anderson (#11), and Kenny Battle (#27), along with sixth man (and high school legend) Marcus Liberty. Michigan featured future NBA players such as Rumeal Robinson, Loy Vaught, and Glen Rice.
With the score tied late in a back-and-forth game, Michigan’s Terry Mills missed a long jumper, but on the weak side, Sean Higgins followed-up with 0:01 left, and “Michigan man” Steve Fisher moved to a (then) career record of 5-0; somewhere Bo Schembechler is smiling at the memory.
9. (#1) Georgetown 77 / (#1) St. John’s 59 (1985)
Although a dominating performance by the Hoyas made the result a foregone conclusion well before the final horn, the lead-up to the game was enormous. #2, and St. John’s had beaten the then-previously-undefeated Hoyas earlier in the season in the Capital (DC) Center. That win was part of a long St. John’s streak that began when Coach Lou Carnesecca wore on an ‘ugly Italian sweater’ that became his trademark.
In late February, on the Hoyas’ return trip to Madison Square Garden, Georgetown coach John Thompson put on a replica of Carnesecca’s sweater under his suit coat, and opened it up to the crowd just before tipoff; the Hoyas won that night, as well.
Interesting sidenote: the Big East had placed three teams in the Final Four in 1985 (Georgetown, St. John’s, and Villanova), a feat not since equaled.
8. NEW (#5) Butler 52 / (#5) Michigan State 50 (2010)
While the clock struck midnight for George Mason in the 2006 National Semifinal, but mid-major Butler just kept rolling along. Indeed, Butler's bubble would not burst until after the final horn on Monday night.
The "patron saint of analytical coaches" Brad Stevens earned his stat-geek stripes in the last minute of this one, electing to foul Korie Lucious -- despite the presence of hundreds of college coaches in the gym, ready to second guess that decision -- with a 3-point lead.
Top-ten draft pick Gordon Hayward secured the rebound and Butler's place in NCAA history. (Of course, Butler center Matt Howard's place in fashion history had long been immortalized.)
7. (#2) UConn 79 / (#1) Duke 78 (2004)
UConn jumped on Duke early, racing to a 15-4 lead. But the Blue Devils clawed back and eventually took an (seemingly) insurmountable lead of 75-67 lead with just 3 minutes left.
But to the horror of the Dookies everywhere, UConn went on final 12-0 run to drive a dull, splintery, wooden stake – metaphorically, of course – through Duke Nation’s collective heart.
6. (#1) Indiana 97 / (#1) UNLV 93 (1987)
Despite having one of the best shooters in the game (Steve Alford), Indiana Coach Bob Knight had been a vocal opponent of the 3-point line, which was introduced that year. No one adapted faster to the new rule faster than UNLV (37-1 going into the game), and the Rebels hoisted 35 threes in the semis, including 10-for-19 from guard Freddie Banks (38 points). Armon Gilliam added 32, despite facing double-teams (Indiana essentially left UNLV guard Mark Wade unguarded, as he was a poor shooter); Wade, to his credit, handed out 18 assists, a tournament record.
Indiana only took four three-pointers, all by Alford (2-4, on his way to 33 points), and received unexpected help off the bench from a well-coiffed Steve Eyl. After the game Knight was unrepentant: "This game was a classic example of how much influence shooting now has on the game because they got 13 three-pointers and that was worth an extra 13 points. I believe basketball should involve passing and a lot of other things, not just coming down the court and throwing it in."
Trivia Answer: Freddie Brown was the 1982 MVP (as chosen by CBS) for Georgetown in the 1982 semifinal game. His 15 minutes of fame lasted just 48 hours.
(Numbers 1-5 coming tomorrow.)
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
The Big East's Downward Trajectory
Big-East haters, including Charles Barkley, have been having a field day over the past two days. After receiving a record 11 bids (albeit to an expanded 68-team field), the Big East has gone quietly, with just 2 of its teams (#3-seed UConn and #11-seed Marquette) surviving the first weekend to make it to the Sweet Sixteen.
And while the 11 bids may have been deserved -- perhaps most convincingly because of the general mediocrity in the rest of what became the #1-seeds(*) in the NIT field -- the BE performance has been bad. And it's part of a pattern.
(*-The NIT #1 seeds, which presumably were the "last four out" of the NCAA field -- as the NCAA now owns the NIT -- were: Alabama (21-11, #45 on KenPom, Boston College (20-12, #69), Colorado (21-13, #56), and Virginia Tech (21-11, #32.))
A year ago, the Big East sent 8 teams, which led all conferences. While West Virginia did make it all the way to the Final Four, the rest of the league did not do particularly well: only 2 teams made it to the Sweet Sixteen (WVU and Syracuse, who was beaten by eventual national runner-up Butler.)
In 2009, however, it was a better story: just 7 Big East teams (nonetheless tied with the ACC and Big Ten for most by a single conference), with 5 advancing to the Sweet Sixteen; both UConn and Villanova went to the Final Four, and but-for a tremendous defensive performance by Michigan State (throttling Louisville), the Big East may have matched its record(*) of sending 3 of the 4 teams to the Final Four.
(*-Culminating in one of greatest Finals ever, Villanova over Georgetown. St. John's also went; the other team: a Dana Kirk-coached Memphis State (nee Memphis.))
The lesson? The Big East may have become "too" good. The competition among the various programs to reach the elite level -- to be an at-large Tourney selection -- has meant that many of the programs have upgraded their coaching and commitment (most notably, St Johns this year, which went 21-12 after playing .500 over the past two years.)
With eleven legitimate Tournament teams, almost every game in the Conference was played at a high level. And the wear-and-tear may have produced entertaining league games (and a memorable Big East Tournament) but a wash-out on the game's biggest stage.
And while the 11 bids may have been deserved -- perhaps most convincingly because of the general mediocrity in the rest of what became the #1-seeds(*) in the NIT field -- the BE performance has been bad. And it's part of a pattern.
(*-The NIT #1 seeds, which presumably were the "last four out" of the NCAA field -- as the NCAA now owns the NIT -- were: Alabama (21-11, #45 on KenPom, Boston College (20-12, #69), Colorado (21-13, #56), and Virginia Tech (21-11, #32.))
A year ago, the Big East sent 8 teams, which led all conferences. While West Virginia did make it all the way to the Final Four, the rest of the league did not do particularly well: only 2 teams made it to the Sweet Sixteen (WVU and Syracuse, who was beaten by eventual national runner-up Butler.)
In 2009, however, it was a better story: just 7 Big East teams (nonetheless tied with the ACC and Big Ten for most by a single conference), with 5 advancing to the Sweet Sixteen; both UConn and Villanova went to the Final Four, and but-for a tremendous defensive performance by Michigan State (throttling Louisville), the Big East may have matched its record(*) of sending 3 of the 4 teams to the Final Four.
(*-Culminating in one of greatest Finals ever, Villanova over Georgetown. St. John's also went; the other team: a Dana Kirk-coached Memphis State (nee Memphis.))
The lesson? The Big East may have become "too" good. The competition among the various programs to reach the elite level -- to be an at-large Tourney selection -- has meant that many of the programs have upgraded their coaching and commitment (most notably, St Johns this year, which went 21-12 after playing .500 over the past two years.)
With eleven legitimate Tournament teams, almost every game in the Conference was played at a high level. And the wear-and-tear may have produced entertaining league games (and a memorable Big East Tournament) but a wash-out on the game's biggest stage.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Sweet Nothings
It's taken 31 years, but an Ivy League team plays tonight in the NCAA's Sweet 16 round for the first time since a Chuck-Daly-recruited (yes, that Chuck Daly) UPenn class crashed (albeit briefly) the Magic-Bird Final Four party in 1979.
A few thoughts:
* Domes: Tough shooting background? Cornell and Kentucky will play tonight at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, one of the few "true" domes used regularly in the college game (UNC's Dean-Dome, while a large facility, is not a true "dome" with a pressurized roof.)
We'll probably hear the CBS announcers claim more than once that the Dome hurts outside shooters, because of the lack of a 'shooting background' and/or different wind currents in the building. And such a difficult shooting environment is thought to hurt Cornell, with its three-point specialists, much more than slashing Kentucky.
Unfortunately (or for Cornell, fortunately), the facts don't seem to support this theory. The NCAA Final Fours have regularly been held in domes, beginning in 1982 with the historic UNC-Georgetown final. Between 1982 and 2000(*), seven national title games were held in non-dome stadiums, and eleven inside domes.
(*-With increased interest in attending the Final Four games, the NCAA has moved all Final Fours to domes, or in the case of Dallas in 2013, ginormous stadiums that might as well be domes.)
The difference in shooting percentage between the two environments?
00.2% (47.1% in non-dome; 46.9% in domes)
Cornell may have a tough time shooting the ball tonight, but that will have to do with the Kentucky pressure, not the shooting environment.
* Expanding the pool. The NCAA seems likely to expand the pool to 96 teams starting next year, which will mean the demise of the NCAA-owned National Invitational Tournament (NIT) after 72 years. (Presumably the women's tournament will also have to expand to 96; although after watching the UConn women hang 50+ point losses on the #16 and #8 seeds in the last week, one wonders why a #24 seed would fair any better.)
Yes, there is parity in college basketball. Unlike the NBA, where the best, healthiest, teams generally prevail over an 82-game regular season and best-of-seven playoff format, college basketball is famously quirky. Indeed, the NBA's size and strength requires a materially different set of skills than college basketball. Some of these skills do translate -- Davidson's Stephen Curry easily stepped back to the NBA three-point line -- while others, like last year's college-player-of-the-year Tyler Hansbrough has (unsurprisingly) had difficultly getting his power game to earn him minutes in the pros. (Although in Hansbrough's defense, when he has played, he's been reasonably effective, scoring at 17 ppg for every 36 minutes played.)
While having first-round NBA draft picks on your college team undoubtedly helps, it is far from a sure thing. And the charm of the NCAA tournament remains the mid-majors showing the "big boys" how to play. Northern Iowa will have no players in the Green Room in New York in June, but you won't get Kansas to tell you that.
So on to expansion: would more Tournament games be good for college basketball? Perhaps, if the result would more more Mid-Major/BCS matchups like Northern Iowa vs. Kansas. (Or, Ohio-Georgetown or Purdue-Siena.)
So if the expansion of the pool means more mid-major teams getting a chance in the Big Dance, AP is all for it. But it also requires a future Tournament Committee to give us Mid-Major/BCS matchups.
Instead, this year's Committee gave us swing games that pitted BCS vs. BCS and Mid-Major vs. Mid-Major. Here are the #8/#9 games: Texas vs. Wake Forest (BCS vs. BCS); UNLV vs. Northern Iowa (MM vs. MM); Louisville vs. Cal (BCS vs. BCS); and Gonzaga (MM) vs. Florida State (BCS conference, but basketball is a distant third at FSU to football and spring football in fan interest.) The Committee could have easily juggled the regions to give us three or four compelling games in that group, instead of one (UNLV vs. NIU was an exciting game, and one that Bill Self might have thought about before waiting 36 minutes to press NIU for 94 feet.)
Expansion could mean rewarding all the Mid-major teams that win their regular season title, but get bumped out of their conference tournaments, like Memphis. But the reality will be more marginal BCS teams getting in; and with expansion, what we'll probably get is more of the same: #8 in the Big Ten vs. #10 in the Big East (by the way, that match-up this year would have been Michigan vs. Seton Hall, in the midst of a basketball meltdown. That's a game that barely has any interest (outside of Ann Arbor and West Orange) in December, before we know that both teams are mediocre.)
Finally, we have been using the term "BCS" in this section even though in college basketball, there is no a "Bowl Championship Series"; it's a proxy for big-time, big-budget, big-TV conferences and their schools. But it raises the question of a Division I college football playoff.
College Presidents and Athletic Directors have resisted instituting a D-I football playoff for various reasons, including upsetting the current bowl structure, and (most unconvincingly) not disrupting academic schedules. And yet bowl season occurs at the tail-end of first semester for an overwhelming majority of colleges and universities. March Madness, in contrast, spills well over the single week of Spring Break, and the 96-team expansion means that the NCAA Tournament will cover another weekend, and effect an additional 500 student-athletes (32 teams x 15 players per team).
In a world where athletic budgets are being stretch both by the economy and non-revenue sports, it makes all the sense in the world why the Tournament is expanding.
But why is college football different? And why is that decision (not to institute a plus-one playoff system) driven by academics rather than dollars?
* Dis-R-E-S-P-E-C-T. Speaking of mid-major teams, Cornell's Big Red has represented the Ivy League well in this tournament, knocking off A-10 champ Temple, and humiliating the Big 10 by hanging 87 points and emptying the bench on defensive-minded Wisconsin.
But the untold story about Cornell is just that -- the untold story. Despite returning six seniors from a two-time defending champ team, Cornell was an also-ran in the national media to the Harvard basketball story. Sports Illustrated and ESPN Magazine both ran full-length features on the Crimson. Former Harvard hooper Arne Duncan also made a splash in his new gig as Secretary of Education. Cornell was lucky to get front-page mention in the Daily Sun despite playing then-No. 1 Kansas to the final minute in Phog Allen.
Do Ivy League teams generally expect national media coverage?
Of course not. But if you think the Big Red didn't notice, check out the score the first time that Harvard played Cornell this year.
A few thoughts:
* Domes: Tough shooting background? Cornell and Kentucky will play tonight at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, one of the few "true" domes used regularly in the college game (UNC's Dean-Dome, while a large facility, is not a true "dome" with a pressurized roof.)
We'll probably hear the CBS announcers claim more than once that the Dome hurts outside shooters, because of the lack of a 'shooting background' and/or different wind currents in the building. And such a difficult shooting environment is thought to hurt Cornell, with its three-point specialists, much more than slashing Kentucky.
Unfortunately (or for Cornell, fortunately), the facts don't seem to support this theory. The NCAA Final Fours have regularly been held in domes, beginning in 1982 with the historic UNC-Georgetown final. Between 1982 and 2000(*), seven national title games were held in non-dome stadiums, and eleven inside domes.
(*-With increased interest in attending the Final Four games, the NCAA has moved all Final Fours to domes, or in the case of Dallas in 2013, ginormous stadiums that might as well be domes.)
The difference in shooting percentage between the two environments?
00.2% (47.1% in non-dome; 46.9% in domes)
Cornell may have a tough time shooting the ball tonight, but that will have to do with the Kentucky pressure, not the shooting environment.
* Expanding the pool. The NCAA seems likely to expand the pool to 96 teams starting next year, which will mean the demise of the NCAA-owned National Invitational Tournament (NIT) after 72 years. (Presumably the women's tournament will also have to expand to 96; although after watching the UConn women hang 50+ point losses on the #16 and #8 seeds in the last week, one wonders why a #24 seed would fair any better.)
Yes, there is parity in college basketball. Unlike the NBA, where the best, healthiest, teams generally prevail over an 82-game regular season and best-of-seven playoff format, college basketball is famously quirky. Indeed, the NBA's size and strength requires a materially different set of skills than college basketball. Some of these skills do translate -- Davidson's Stephen Curry easily stepped back to the NBA three-point line -- while others, like last year's college-player-of-the-year Tyler Hansbrough has (unsurprisingly) had difficultly getting his power game to earn him minutes in the pros. (Although in Hansbrough's defense, when he has played, he's been reasonably effective, scoring at 17 ppg for every 36 minutes played.)
While having first-round NBA draft picks on your college team undoubtedly helps, it is far from a sure thing. And the charm of the NCAA tournament remains the mid-majors showing the "big boys" how to play. Northern Iowa will have no players in the Green Room in New York in June, but you won't get Kansas to tell you that.
So on to expansion: would more Tournament games be good for college basketball? Perhaps, if the result would more more Mid-Major/BCS matchups like Northern Iowa vs. Kansas. (Or, Ohio-Georgetown or Purdue-Siena.)
So if the expansion of the pool means more mid-major teams getting a chance in the Big Dance, AP is all for it. But it also requires a future Tournament Committee to give us Mid-Major/BCS matchups.
Instead, this year's Committee gave us swing games that pitted BCS vs. BCS and Mid-Major vs. Mid-Major. Here are the #8/#9 games: Texas vs. Wake Forest (BCS vs. BCS); UNLV vs. Northern Iowa (MM vs. MM); Louisville vs. Cal (BCS vs. BCS); and Gonzaga (MM) vs. Florida State (BCS conference, but basketball is a distant third at FSU to football and spring football in fan interest.) The Committee could have easily juggled the regions to give us three or four compelling games in that group, instead of one (UNLV vs. NIU was an exciting game, and one that Bill Self might have thought about before waiting 36 minutes to press NIU for 94 feet.)
Expansion could mean rewarding all the Mid-major teams that win their regular season title, but get bumped out of their conference tournaments, like Memphis. But the reality will be more marginal BCS teams getting in; and with expansion, what we'll probably get is more of the same: #8 in the Big Ten vs. #10 in the Big East (by the way, that match-up this year would have been Michigan vs. Seton Hall, in the midst of a basketball meltdown. That's a game that barely has any interest (outside of Ann Arbor and West Orange) in December, before we know that both teams are mediocre.)
Finally, we have been using the term "BCS" in this section even though in college basketball, there is no a "Bowl Championship Series"; it's a proxy for big-time, big-budget, big-TV conferences and their schools. But it raises the question of a Division I college football playoff.
College Presidents and Athletic Directors have resisted instituting a D-I football playoff for various reasons, including upsetting the current bowl structure, and (most unconvincingly) not disrupting academic schedules. And yet bowl season occurs at the tail-end of first semester for an overwhelming majority of colleges and universities. March Madness, in contrast, spills well over the single week of Spring Break, and the 96-team expansion means that the NCAA Tournament will cover another weekend, and effect an additional 500 student-athletes (32 teams x 15 players per team).
In a world where athletic budgets are being stretch both by the economy and non-revenue sports, it makes all the sense in the world why the Tournament is expanding.
But why is college football different? And why is that decision (not to institute a plus-one playoff system) driven by academics rather than dollars?
* Dis-R-E-S-P-E-C-T. Speaking of mid-major teams, Cornell's Big Red has represented the Ivy League well in this tournament, knocking off A-10 champ Temple, and humiliating the Big 10 by hanging 87 points and emptying the bench on defensive-minded Wisconsin.
But the untold story about Cornell is just that -- the untold story. Despite returning six seniors from a two-time defending champ team, Cornell was an also-ran in the national media to the Harvard basketball story. Sports Illustrated and ESPN Magazine both ran full-length features on the Crimson. Former Harvard hooper Arne Duncan also made a splash in his new gig as Secretary of Education. Cornell was lucky to get front-page mention in the Daily Sun despite playing then-No. 1 Kansas to the final minute in Phog Allen.
Do Ivy League teams generally expect national media coverage?
Of course not. But if you think the Big Red didn't notice, check out the score the first time that Harvard played Cornell this year.
Monday, April 6, 2009
GIGO?
Ken Pomeroy has done a terrific job documenting and analyzing data relating to college basketball, much like Bill James for baseball a generation ago. His blog (and writing at Basketball Prospectus) has introduced new stats such as "Effective Height" and "Defensive Fingerprint." Stats such as these have given observers a set of tools to use to evaluate College Basketball teams.
That being said, the core stat -- the Pomeroy Rating -- has been less than stellar during this NCAA tournament. Although there were few major upsets in the first two rounds of the tournament (meaning that the "power conference" teams mainly survived to the Sweet Sixteen Round), Pomeroy's ratings have had middling results.
With that in mind, let's take a tour back through each of the four regions, comparing Pomeroy's ratings against other ranking systems: the NCAA Men's Committee itself (NCAA), the final AP poll (AP), and RPI (Ratings Percentage Index, as calculated here. (RPI))
Only Sweet Sixteen and later games are used, to try and emphasize the differences between the systems. (After all, every system will get the 1-16 and 2-15 games correctly; by the time you reach the round of 16, the choices are hard, as anyone who's ever done a bracket will tell you.) Note that while KenPom systems remains 'dynamic', adding information from each successive game and updating results, the NCAA, AP, and RPI ratings used here were 'fixed' at the end of the regular season.
EAST
Sweet Sixteen actual teams: Pitt vs. Xavier; Villanova vs. Duke
SOUTH
Sweet Sixteen actual teams: UNC vs. Gonzaga; Syracuse vs. Oklahoma
MIDWEST
Sweet Sixteen actual teams: Louisville vs. Arizona; Kansas vs, Michigan State.
WEST
Sweet Sixteen Actual teams: UConn vs. Purdue; Missouri vs. Memphis
FINAL FOUR:
UNC vs. Villanova; MSU vs. UConn.
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:
UNC vs. MSU
As all four systems have the same prediction for tonight's game, there can be no change in the final standings, which leaves the much maligned RPI as the 'most accurate', at least for this year.
That being said, the core stat -- the Pomeroy Rating -- has been less than stellar during this NCAA tournament. Although there were few major upsets in the first two rounds of the tournament (meaning that the "power conference" teams mainly survived to the Sweet Sixteen Round), Pomeroy's ratings have had middling results.
With that in mind, let's take a tour back through each of the four regions, comparing Pomeroy's ratings against other ranking systems: the NCAA Men's Committee itself (NCAA), the final AP poll (AP), and RPI (Ratings Percentage Index, as calculated here. (RPI))
Only Sweet Sixteen and later games are used, to try and emphasize the differences between the systems. (After all, every system will get the 1-16 and 2-15 games correctly; by the time you reach the round of 16, the choices are hard, as anyone who's ever done a bracket will tell you.) Note that while KenPom systems remains 'dynamic', adding information from each successive game and updating results, the NCAA, AP, and RPI ratings used here were 'fixed' at the end of the regular season.
EAST
Sweet Sixteen actual teams: Pitt vs. Xavier; Villanova vs. Duke
Predicted results:
NCAA: (1) Pitt over (4) Xav (correct); (2) Duke over (3) Nova (incorrect). (1-1)
AP: (4) Pitt over (20) Xav (correct); (6) Duke over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-1)
RPI: (2) Pitt over (17) Xav (correct); (1) Duke over (13) Nova (incorrect) (1-1)
KenPom: (5) Pitt over (20) Xav (correct); (11) Duke over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-1)
Finals: Pitt vs. Villanova
NCAA: (1) Pitt over (3) Nova (incorrect). (1-2, cumulative)
AP: (4) Pitt over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-2)
RPI: (2) Pitt over (13) Nova (incorrect) (1-2)
KenPom: (5) Pitt over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-2)
SOUTH
Sweet Sixteen actual teams: UNC vs. Gonzaga; Syracuse vs. Oklahoma
NCAA: (1) UNC over (4) Gonzaga (correct); (2) OU over (3) Cuse (correct) (3-2, cumulative)
AP: (2) UNC over (10) Gonzaga (corret); (7) OU over (13) Cuse (correct) (3-2)
RPI: (3) UNC over (26) Zaga (correct); (5) OU over (12) Cuse (correct); (3-2)
KenPom: (3) UNC over (8) Zaga (correct); (13) OU over (15) Cuse (correct); (3-2)
Finals: UNC vs. OU
NCAA: (1) UNC over (2) OU over (4-2, cumulative)
AP: (2) UNC over (7) OU (correct) (4-2)
RPI: (3) UNC over (5) OU over (correct); (4-2)
KenPom: (3) UNC over (13) (correct); (4-2)
MIDWEST
Sweet Sixteen actual teams: Louisville vs. Arizona; Kansas vs, Michigan State.
NCAA: (1) Lou over (12) Ariz (correct); (2) MSU over (3) KU (correct) (6-2, cumulative)
AP: (1) Lou over (NR) Ariz (correct); (8) MSU over (14) KU (correct) (6-2)
RPI: (4) Lou over (62) Ariz (correct); (6) MSU over (11) KU (correct) (6-2)
KenPom: (4) Lou over (40) Ariz (correct); (7) MSU over (10) KU (correct) (6-2)
Finals: Lou vs. MSU
NCAA: (1) Lou over (2) MSU (incorrect) (6-3, cumulative)
AP: (1) Lou over (8) MSU (incorrect) (6-3)
RPI: (4) Lou over (6) MSU (incorrect)(6-3)
KenPom: (4) Lou over (7) MSU (incorrect) (6-3)
WEST
Sweet Sixteen Actual teams: UConn vs. Purdue; Missouri vs. Memphis
NCAA: (1) UConn over (5) Purdue (correct); (2) Mem over (3) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)
AP: (5) UConn over (17) Purdue (correct); (3) Mem over (9) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)
RPI: (8) UConn over (20) Purdue (correct); (7) Mem over (10) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)
KenPom: (2) Uconn over (17) Purdue (correct); (1) Mem over (6) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)
Finals: UConn vs. Mizzou
NCAA: (1) UConn over (3) Mizzou (correct) (8-4, cumulative)
AP: (5) UConn over (9) Mizzou (correct) (8-4)
RPI: (8) UConn over (10) Mizzou (correct) (8-4)
KenPom: (2) Uconn over (6) Mizzou (correct) (8-4)
FINAL FOUR:
UNC vs. Villanova; MSU vs. UConn.
NCAA: (1) UConn over (2) MSU (incorrect); (1) UNC over (3) Nova (correct) (9-5, cumulative)
AP: (5) UConn vs. (8) MSU (incorrect); (2) UNC over (11) Nova (correct); (9-5)
RPI: (6) MSU over (8) UConn (correct); (3) UNC over (13) Nova (correct) (10-4)
KenPom: (2) UConn over (7) MSU (incorrect); (3) UNC over (14) Nova (correct)(9-5)
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:
UNC vs. MSU
NCAA: (1) UNC over (2) MSU
AP: (2) UNC over (8) MSU
RPI: (3) UNC over (6) MSU
KenPom: (3) UNC over (7) MSU
As all four systems have the same prediction for tonight's game, there can be no change in the final standings, which leaves the much maligned RPI as the 'most accurate', at least for this year.
RPI: 11-4 or 10-5
NCAA: 10-5 or 9-6
AP: 10-5 or 9-6
KenPom: 10-5 or 9-6
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Kansas Limps Into the Final Four
Bill Self's Kansas Jayhawks advanced to the Final Four with a relatively unimpressive (at least among the four #1 seeds who are going to San Antonio) win over Davidson, 59-57.
Why unimpressive?
The refs effectively stopped calling fouls early in the second half, which was a huge boon to Kansas' athleticism. Several blocks on the baseline could have easily been called, and Curry was hit on a couple of shots, to no effect. (The only calls that were made were obvious fouls, especially reaches on the ball, like Andrew Lovedale's reach after a block with 2:47 left (for his fourth foul.))
Davidson was on the ropes (43-38) with about 12 minutes left, and only Bryant Barr's ability to take some pressure off of Stephen Curry by draining two threes in three trips.
But the real question Coach Self has to be asking himself is how he allowed his career -- and a loss to this Davidson team and another failure in the Elite Eight probably would have brought an end to the Self Show in Lawrence -- to be hanging in the balance on a relatively open Jason Richards three-pointer with 4 seconds left.
While Richards was 24-25 feet away from the the basket, it was an open look, and he had made at least one similar shot during the course of the tournament.
One more, and Davidson would be the new George Mason.
Why unimpressive?
The refs effectively stopped calling fouls early in the second half, which was a huge boon to Kansas' athleticism. Several blocks on the baseline could have easily been called, and Curry was hit on a couple of shots, to no effect. (The only calls that were made were obvious fouls, especially reaches on the ball, like Andrew Lovedale's reach after a block with 2:47 left (for his fourth foul.))
Davidson was on the ropes (43-38) with about 12 minutes left, and only Bryant Barr's ability to take some pressure off of Stephen Curry by draining two threes in three trips.
But the real question Coach Self has to be asking himself is how he allowed his career -- and a loss to this Davidson team and another failure in the Elite Eight probably would have brought an end to the Self Show in Lawrence -- to be hanging in the balance on a relatively open Jason Richards three-pointer with 4 seconds left.
While Richards was 24-25 feet away from the the basket, it was an open look, and he had made at least one similar shot during the course of the tournament.
One more, and Davidson would be the new George Mason.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
The Value of FTs
Ken Pomeroy is usually an AP 'must-read', but sometimes his application of (Bill) Jamesian-numerical analysis of college basketball leads him to counter-intuitive conclusions that are also counter-factual.
Take his analysis of the value of FT% (in the context of Memphis' chances to win the national title):
WVU lost tonight against Xavier, 79-75 in OT, a two-possession game that falls outside of KenPom's definition of a 'close' game (although in fairmess, Pomeroy expands the definition to four points later in his column.) Two trips to the foul line were key for WVU:
* Coming out of a timeout with 0:21 left in regulation, and down by 2 points, WVU ran a terrific disguised screen play to get the ball to their best player -- Joe Alexander -- on the low block. Alexander made the short jumper -- tying the score -- and was fouled. Although a terrific foul shooter (82.1%), Alexander missed the "and-1" and -- after a Xavier miss at the other end -- the game went to OT.
* Later in OT, after Alexander had fouled out, the Mountaineers were clinging to a 4-point lead. In the last 3 minutes of the game, WVU made three trips to the line with Wellington Smith (54.2%) going 0-for-2, and Joe Mazzulla (64.8%) going 2-4 in two trips. While the proximate cause of WVU's loss was the failure to cover Xavier's BJ Raymond on two-straight possessions (including a key one with 0:02 on the shot clock with 0:32 left), the missed free throws -- especially Smith's empty trip with 2:57 left -- were critical.
Pomeroy has a point -- coaches may put relatively poor foul shooters on the floor because their talents in other areas allow their FT% to be overcome elsewhere. But looking at "one-possession" final scores is not a fair test of free throw acumen.
First, relatively few games are truly 'last possession' games. Even games with a close score (i.e., within 3 points) can be decided earlier with a meaningless hoop at the buzzer allowing the score to be not-as-close as it appears to be.
Second, the real test for 'close' games should games that are tied or within one possession in the last five minutes in regulation, or (by definition) any overtime game. Alexander, Smith, and Mazzulla all missed critical free throws. Alexander's miss cost his team the opportunity to win in overtime (although the tie score may have had an influence on the type of shot that Xavier was willing to take in the last seconds). Smith's miss killed WVU's momentum (built in spite of Alexander going to the bench early in the OT). And Mazzulla's misses deflated a team that was clinging to a two-point lead (first trip, with 2:13 left) and all-but-killed the team with 0:17 left (74-78).
Finally, overall FT% is not the same as FT% in the last few minutes of closely-fought, tense game where both teams are playing at a high level -- and the refs are allowing the players to 'decide the game' by only calling indisputable fouls (which includes almost every NCAA Tournament game.)
Is FT% overrated? Perhaps. Can talented teams overcome poor foul shooting? Sure.
But can missed free throws kill a team? Absolutely. And what is harder to measure is the momentum-killing implications of an empty trip to the line at the end of a close game.
Earl Weaver famously said that momentum is "tomorrow's starting pitcher." While that may be true in baseball, a game of discrete (and discretely measurable) interactions, the game of basketball is more complex, and involves more group psychology.
Just ask the Georgetown Hoyas.
Take his analysis of the value of FT% (in the context of Memphis' chances to win the national title):
For one thing, the ability to make free throws has very little correlation to winning close games. It needs to be noted that just three teams in the country have a better track record than Tennessee in close games this season. The Volunteers are 8-2 in one-possession games--games decided by three points of less at the end of regulation. Memphis hasn't been in many of those games this season, but has won all three they've come across. That's 11-2 for the two bricklayers combined in close game action.Such analysis is of no solace to Bob Huggins and the West Virginia Mountaineers.
WVU lost tonight against Xavier, 79-75 in OT, a two-possession game that falls outside of KenPom's definition of a 'close' game (although in fairmess, Pomeroy expands the definition to four points later in his column.) Two trips to the foul line were key for WVU:
* Coming out of a timeout with 0:21 left in regulation, and down by 2 points, WVU ran a terrific disguised screen play to get the ball to their best player -- Joe Alexander -- on the low block. Alexander made the short jumper -- tying the score -- and was fouled. Although a terrific foul shooter (82.1%), Alexander missed the "and-1" and -- after a Xavier miss at the other end -- the game went to OT.
* Later in OT, after Alexander had fouled out, the Mountaineers were clinging to a 4-point lead. In the last 3 minutes of the game, WVU made three trips to the line with Wellington Smith (54.2%) going 0-for-2, and Joe Mazzulla (64.8%) going 2-4 in two trips. While the proximate cause of WVU's loss was the failure to cover Xavier's BJ Raymond on two-straight possessions (including a key one with 0:02 on the shot clock with 0:32 left), the missed free throws -- especially Smith's empty trip with 2:57 left -- were critical.
Pomeroy has a point -- coaches may put relatively poor foul shooters on the floor because their talents in other areas allow their FT% to be overcome elsewhere. But looking at "one-possession" final scores is not a fair test of free throw acumen.
First, relatively few games are truly 'last possession' games. Even games with a close score (i.e., within 3 points) can be decided earlier with a meaningless hoop at the buzzer allowing the score to be not-as-close as it appears to be.
Second, the real test for 'close' games should games that are tied or within one possession in the last five minutes in regulation, or (by definition) any overtime game. Alexander, Smith, and Mazzulla all missed critical free throws. Alexander's miss cost his team the opportunity to win in overtime (although the tie score may have had an influence on the type of shot that Xavier was willing to take in the last seconds). Smith's miss killed WVU's momentum (built in spite of Alexander going to the bench early in the OT). And Mazzulla's misses deflated a team that was clinging to a two-point lead (first trip, with 2:13 left) and all-but-killed the team with 0:17 left (74-78).
Finally, overall FT% is not the same as FT% in the last few minutes of closely-fought, tense game where both teams are playing at a high level -- and the refs are allowing the players to 'decide the game' by only calling indisputable fouls (which includes almost every NCAA Tournament game.)
Is FT% overrated? Perhaps. Can talented teams overcome poor foul shooting? Sure.
But can missed free throws kill a team? Absolutely. And what is harder to measure is the momentum-killing implications of an empty trip to the line at the end of a close game.
Earl Weaver famously said that momentum is "tomorrow's starting pitcher." While that may be true in baseball, a game of discrete (and discretely measurable) interactions, the game of basketball is more complex, and involves more group psychology.
Just ask the Georgetown Hoyas.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Another "Mouse that Roared" - 1984 edition
A year after the classic Louisville-Houston NCAA semifinal game, Houston returned to the Final Four, and this time made it to Championship Night. There, however, they ran into a Georgetown Hoya machine.
Although led by Patrick Ewing, John Thompson had recruited upgrades at the forward position, led by the unmistakeable image of Michael Graham (above), as the original 'power' forward, and Dunbar High School's Reggie Williams.
Graham's time at Georgetown was limited (he apparently failed exams during the spring of 1984), and transfered shortly thereafter to UDC. But he cast a long shadow on the era of Hoya Paranoia, even in his brief time in uniform.
Williams, in contrast, went on to a stellar Hoya career (including leading 'Reggie-and-the-Miracles' his senior season), and a lengthy NBA career.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Another "Mouse That Roared" - 1983 edition
Another name from the NCAA past (albeit slightly before Mouse McFadden) is Houston's Benny Anders, who was part of the great Phi Slamma Jamma teams of 1982-84.
As a player, Anders was overshadowed by all-time greats Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler; but he was the unmistakable character on a team filled with strong personalities (see: Larry Micheaux, Michael Young, and straight-man Reid Gettys, now an Houston attorney).
But Anders, who has virtually disappeared from organized basketball, still haunts the imaginations of those who saw him play.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Three Intriguing First Round Games (Friday Edition)
Three more games to keep an eye on today:
(#10) Davidson v. (#7) Gonzaga.
Before the bracket was announced, both Davidson and Gonzaga were trendy 'first-round-surprises.' As it turned out, that will be true, but only for one of the two teams. The beat goes on at Gonzaga -- another tough out-of-conference schedule, another West Coast Conference regular season championship, although the upset in the WCC tournament was a surprise. Davidson meanwhile makes its second straight NCAA appearance, with the dangerous Stephen Curry getting more help this year from backcourt running mate Jason Richards.
(#12) Western Kentucky v. (#5) Drake.
Drake has had a magical run this season, but limped home with a 3-3 end to the regular season (the Bulldogs did win the tough Missouri Valley Tourney, however). Former walk-on Adam Emmenecker leads "the Drake" to its first NCAA appearance since 1971, and the pressure is on to prove that this year was not a fluke. WKY played a brutal non-conference schedule, including close losses at Gonzaga and to Tenn at home.
(#13) San Diego v. (#4) UConn.
Both teams were over-shadowed by bigger name schools in their respective conferences (Georgetown, Notre Dame, and Louisville for UConn, and St. Mary's and (as always) Gonzaga for San Diego). But while San Diego closed with a bang, winning the WCC championship on its home floor, UConn ended a fine 24-8 season by losing three of its last six, including a desultory opening round loss to West Virginia in the Big East tourney.
(#10) Davidson v. (#7) Gonzaga.
Before the bracket was announced, both Davidson and Gonzaga were trendy 'first-round-surprises.' As it turned out, that will be true, but only for one of the two teams. The beat goes on at Gonzaga -- another tough out-of-conference schedule, another West Coast Conference regular season championship, although the upset in the WCC tournament was a surprise. Davidson meanwhile makes its second straight NCAA appearance, with the dangerous Stephen Curry getting more help this year from backcourt running mate Jason Richards.
(#12) Western Kentucky v. (#5) Drake.
Drake has had a magical run this season, but limped home with a 3-3 end to the regular season (the Bulldogs did win the tough Missouri Valley Tourney, however). Former walk-on Adam Emmenecker leads "the Drake" to its first NCAA appearance since 1971, and the pressure is on to prove that this year was not a fluke. WKY played a brutal non-conference schedule, including close losses at Gonzaga and to Tenn at home.
(#13) San Diego v. (#4) UConn.
Both teams were over-shadowed by bigger name schools in their respective conferences (Georgetown, Notre Dame, and Louisville for UConn, and St. Mary's and (as always) Gonzaga for San Diego). But while San Diego closed with a bang, winning the WCC championship on its home floor, UConn ended a fine 24-8 season by losing three of its last six, including a desultory opening round loss to West Virginia in the Big East tourney.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Big 5 in Decline
The Globe's Mark Blaudschun notes this morning -- after summarizing the generally down year for men's college basketball in Massachusetts and New England -- that Philadelphia is also suffering. The City of Brotherly Love has a long tradition of great college basketball -- the city rivalries in hoops often surpass the local rivalries of the Beanpot -- through the "Big 5." The Big 5 has been around since 1955, and has always had at least one representative in the NCAA field.
This year, Villanova (17-10, #59 on KenPom, #64 on RPI) and St. Joe's (17-9, #63 Kenpom, #59 RPI) are on the outside of the bubble right now. Temple (15-12, #81 KenPom, #80 RPI), Penn (10-16), and LaSalle (13-13, #158 RPI) are dead, or in need a "Championship Week" miracle to make the Field of 65.
Ah for the glory days of the Palestra.
This year, Villanova (17-10, #59 on KenPom, #64 on RPI) and St. Joe's (17-9, #63 Kenpom, #59 RPI) are on the outside of the bubble right now. Temple (15-12, #81 KenPom, #80 RPI), Penn (10-16), and LaSalle (13-13, #158 RPI) are dead, or in need a "Championship Week" miracle to make the Field of 65.
Ah for the glory days of the Palestra.
Friday, February 8, 2008
A-10 in the Top 25
A little more college basketball: a conference that you (probably) haven't thought about this year is having a very good season, at least according to the (much-maligned) RPI. Here are the Atlantic-10 standings:
4 teams in the top-25 RPI is nothing to sneer at, although the season is still young. The A-10 is not getting much respect from AP voters, with just one school (Xavier, #13) in the top-25, and two others (Rhode Island, St. Joes) ARV. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Rhode Island in, and St. Joes out, of the NCAA Tournament.
Through games of Thursday, February 7
Overall / Conf / Overall
W-L / W-L / RPI
Xavier 19-4 / 7-1 / 15
Saint Joseph's 15-6 / 6-2 / 45
Rhode Island 19-4 / 5-3 / 23
Richmond 12-9 / 5-3 / 102
Temple 11-10 / 4-3 / 79
Charlotte 13-8 / 4-3 / 89
Dayton 16-5 / 4-4 / 14
Massachusetts 15-7 / 4-4 / 22
Duquesne 14-7 / 4-4 / 91
La Salle 8-12 / 4-4 / 190
St. Louis 11-10 / 3-5 / 122
Fordham 7-11 / 2-5 / 180
St. Bonaventure 7-14 / 1-6 / 235
George Washington 5-13 / 1-7 / 254
4 teams in the top-25 RPI is nothing to sneer at, although the season is still young. The A-10 is not getting much respect from AP voters, with just one school (Xavier, #13) in the top-25, and two others (Rhode Island, St. Joes) ARV. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Rhode Island in, and St. Joes out, of the NCAA Tournament.
Thanks for the Memories
A year ago, LSU Coach John Brady was coming off a Final Four appearance, and was returning Glen (Big Baby) Davis, a pre-season All-American.
Last year LSU fell back to a disappointing 17-15 (5-11 SEC) record; Davis meanwhile, became a cautionary tale, falling from a possible lottery pick in 2006 to the second round (#35 overall) last June.
Brady, meanwhile, has apparently been fired as head coach of LSU; he will coach his final game tomorrow against #7 Tennessee.
Patience is not apparently a virtue, at least in Baton Rouge.
Last year LSU fell back to a disappointing 17-15 (5-11 SEC) record; Davis meanwhile, became a cautionary tale, falling from a possible lottery pick in 2006 to the second round (#35 overall) last June.
Brady, meanwhile, has apparently been fired as head coach of LSU; he will coach his final game tomorrow against #7 Tennessee.
Patience is not apparently a virtue, at least in Baton Rouge.
Sunday, June 24, 2007
Oregon State Repeats
Although it did not engender the publicity of Florida's back-to-back titles in April, Oregon State won a second consecutive NCAA baseball title this evening, with a convincing 11-4, 9-3 set of wins in the Finals. UNC battled to get to the Finals for the second consecutive year, but OSU's close (they trailed for only one inning in their last five games -- a streak of 61 innings going into tonight's game -- played at the CWS)
(The above photo shows one of the few balls that OSU was unable to corral this evening -- a single over the head of OSU infielder Joey Wong.)
Friday, June 8, 2007
The Most Exciting Baseball on Television
While the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) and the Final Four both display college athletes who are thisclose to becoming pros, when one watches the College World Series (CWS), the disparity between amateur and professional baseball made apparent. And the combination of talented players (many are throwing north of 90 MPH), a lack of experience, and the high stakes of the opportunity to go to Omaha (where the CWS is held).
For instance, just this evening, within 3 minutes, two mental mistakes were on display on two different Super Regional NCAA games. First, in the Texas A&M/Rice game, with the Owls facing a 1-2 deficit, the Rice baserunner on second (SS Brian Friday) was gunned down on a relay from right field, making the third out at third base -- a baseball no-no.
Then, literally seconds later, ESPN cut back to the main game (UNC/South Carolina), where the Gamecocks were looking at a 6-3 lead with 2 outs in the 7th. With a man at first, Tar Heel SS Josh Horton sliced a ball to left, where the left fielder, Cheyne Hurst, who had been inserted into the game "for defensive purposes" according to the announcers, tried to make a shoestring catch that allowed the ball to squirt to the wall -- and the runner scored all the way from first base.
By the time the 7th inning was over for USC, the bases had been loaded and the tying run had been walked in, two infield grounders were missed (one was called a hit), and UNC led 9-6, all the runs scoring with 2 outs.
The game continues as this is written...It's 'must see' TV.
Update: UNC held on to win, 9-6.
Later Update: Rice came back to win, 3-2 in 10 innings, although the Owls had to withstand another mental mistake when 3B Diego Seastrunk, after singling home the tying run with one out in the bottom of the 9th, failed to advance to second on the throw through to home.
Final Update: Both UNC (in 3 games) and Rice (2 games) advanced to Omaha.
For instance, just this evening, within 3 minutes, two mental mistakes were on display on two different Super Regional NCAA games. First, in the Texas A&M/Rice game, with the Owls facing a 1-2 deficit, the Rice baserunner on second (SS Brian Friday) was gunned down on a relay from right field, making the third out at third base -- a baseball no-no.
Then, literally seconds later, ESPN cut back to the main game (UNC/South Carolina), where the Gamecocks were looking at a 6-3 lead with 2 outs in the 7th. With a man at first, Tar Heel SS Josh Horton sliced a ball to left, where the left fielder, Cheyne Hurst, who had been inserted into the game "for defensive purposes" according to the announcers, tried to make a shoestring catch that allowed the ball to squirt to the wall -- and the runner scored all the way from first base.
By the time the 7th inning was over for USC, the bases had been loaded and the tying run had been walked in, two infield grounders were missed (one was called a hit), and UNC led 9-6, all the runs scoring with 2 outs.
The game continues as this is written...It's 'must see' TV.
Update: UNC held on to win, 9-6.
Later Update: Rice came back to win, 3-2 in 10 innings, although the Owls had to withstand another mental mistake when 3B Diego Seastrunk, after singling home the tying run with one out in the bottom of the 9th, failed to advance to second on the throw through to home.
Final Update: Both UNC (in 3 games) and Rice (2 games) advanced to Omaha.
Tuesday, April 3, 2007
Championship Night Thoughts
This entry is cross-posted on TNR's March Madness blog, Posting Up:
-- Not a very dramatic game, but compelling nonetheless. The Buckeyes gave a good account of themselves, and it was nice to see a group of players (the Gators) that seemed to enjoy being together--both on and off the court.
-- OSU did almost everything right--stay relatively close in the first half, keep Greg Oden (25 points, 12 rebounds) out of foul trouble, give itself a chance after halftime. Especially with good execution coming out of halftime, you felt the Buckeyes might get themselves in position to steal a close game against a seemingly superior opponent. But OSU couldn't get the lead down to the point where the pressure shifted onto Florida, and Florida had too much Corey Brewer (named Most Outstanding Player), Lee Humphrey, Taureen Green, and Al Horford at crunch time. (In fact, Florida is so deep that the Gators were able to survive a sub-par championship game from Joakim Noah, last year's MOP.)
-- So where do the Gators stand in the all-time great list? Florida showed a lot of balance and depth against OSU--not only the five starters, all of whom scored 1,000 or more points while getting all the publicity, but also big men Chris Richard and Marreese Speights, who ate up minutes and fouls against Oden on the low post. In the modern era (post-1979), only Duke has repeated, and the intervening years have shown the difficulty of keeping a team together--and healthy. The closest analogy is probably UNLV (1990) but the Rebels were famously defeated by the Duke team that went on to win the first of two straight championships (1991 and 1992). With the depth, balance, and versatility the Gators have shown, they have to be considered among the best college teams ever.
-- Not a very dramatic game, but compelling nonetheless. The Buckeyes gave a good account of themselves, and it was nice to see a group of players (the Gators) that seemed to enjoy being together--both on and off the court.
-- OSU did almost everything right--stay relatively close in the first half, keep Greg Oden (25 points, 12 rebounds) out of foul trouble, give itself a chance after halftime. Especially with good execution coming out of halftime, you felt the Buckeyes might get themselves in position to steal a close game against a seemingly superior opponent. But OSU couldn't get the lead down to the point where the pressure shifted onto Florida, and Florida had too much Corey Brewer (named Most Outstanding Player), Lee Humphrey, Taureen Green, and Al Horford at crunch time. (In fact, Florida is so deep that the Gators were able to survive a sub-par championship game from Joakim Noah, last year's MOP.)
-- So where do the Gators stand in the all-time great list? Florida showed a lot of balance and depth against OSU--not only the five starters, all of whom scored 1,000 or more points while getting all the publicity, but also big men Chris Richard and Marreese Speights, who ate up minutes and fouls against Oden on the low post. In the modern era (post-1979), only Duke has repeated, and the intervening years have shown the difficulty of keeping a team together--and healthy. The closest analogy is probably UNLV (1990) but the Rebels were famously defeated by the Duke team that went on to win the first of two straight championships (1991 and 1992). With the depth, balance, and versatility the Gators have shown, they have to be considered among the best college teams ever.
Sunday, April 1, 2007
A Few Thoughts from Saturday (Semifinal) Night
This entry is cross-posted at TNR's blog, Posting Up:
• Neither game (G-town/OSU or FLA/UCLA) will be listed the “memorable” ones. UCLA’s performance was the more disappointing, never putting any real pressure on Florida except for the first few minutes of the game – and even then, the foul trouble for Aaron Afflalo meant the Bruins’ early lead was destined to be short-lived.
• As mentioned before, OSU becomes a sleeker and more dangerous team without Greg Oden – primarily because they (led primarily by Mike Conley, Jr., who has played himself into a much better draft position) appear ready to attack on any potential fast-break, without worrying about whether the ‘big man’ is down the floor and ready to rebound. The Hoya turnovers in the first half – when Oden was on the bench with two fouls – were critical.
• Georgetown was the beneficiary of the refs’ no-call on a possible Jeff Green travel in the Sweet Sixteen game. Last night, they were on the short-end of two calls that could gone either way: a block/charge on Green against Oden with 6:37 left and the score 50-44, OSU; and a charge/block on Green (taken by David Lighty, who did a terrific job on Green all night) at the other end, four minutes later and with OSU clinging to a 4-point lead.
• In 1965, John McPhee wrote the following in The New Yorker:]
• The spectre of Kentucky’s head coaching job seems to overshadow the entire Final Four right now, as George Vescey observed in the Times yesterday. Florida’s Billy Donovan has all-but-signaled that he will be moving to Lexington as soon as Monday’s game is over, for a contract that will be likely north of $3M per year. CBS continues to pay big money for the rights to the NCAA tournament; several universities (including OSU) now have athletic ‘businesses’ that have more than $100M in annual revenue; the players continue to (theoretically) get the same ‘compensation’ – tuition, room, and board – although fewer of them receive the scholarships, as Stacey noted; and coaches are the ones who seem to be capturing more and more of the economic ‘rents’ created by the TV contracts, as Andrew noted when we started here several weeks ago.
• Neither game (G-town/OSU or FLA/UCLA) will be listed the “memorable” ones. UCLA’s performance was the more disappointing, never putting any real pressure on Florida except for the first few minutes of the game – and even then, the foul trouble for Aaron Afflalo meant the Bruins’ early lead was destined to be short-lived.
• As mentioned before, OSU becomes a sleeker and more dangerous team without Greg Oden – primarily because they (led primarily by Mike Conley, Jr., who has played himself into a much better draft position) appear ready to attack on any potential fast-break, without worrying about whether the ‘big man’ is down the floor and ready to rebound. The Hoya turnovers in the first half – when Oden was on the bench with two fouls – were critical.
• Georgetown was the beneficiary of the refs’ no-call on a possible Jeff Green travel in the Sweet Sixteen game. Last night, they were on the short-end of two calls that could gone either way: a block/charge on Green against Oden with 6:37 left and the score 50-44, OSU; and a charge/block on Green (taken by David Lighty, who did a terrific job on Green all night) at the other end, four minutes later and with OSU clinging to a 4-point lead.
• In 1965, John McPhee wrote the following in The New Yorker:]
The rules of basketball are such that if they were ever literally interpreted, the referees would call enough fouls in any game to eliminate everyone or both squads two or three times over. No sport, therefore, is more difficult to officiate, since the referee’s judgment is infinitely more important that his vision, and the fairness of the outcome depends on the consistency and balance of the referee’s decisions rather than on any set of inflexible rules.Forty-two years later, those words still ring true. Last night’s early fouls – two on Oden in the first three minutes of Game One, and three on Afflalo in less than ten minutes in Game Two -- probably did not influence the outcome of either contest, but did much to lessen the drama that both games potentially held.
• The spectre of Kentucky’s head coaching job seems to overshadow the entire Final Four right now, as George Vescey observed in the Times yesterday. Florida’s Billy Donovan has all-but-signaled that he will be moving to Lexington as soon as Monday’s game is over, for a contract that will be likely north of $3M per year. CBS continues to pay big money for the rights to the NCAA tournament; several universities (including OSU) now have athletic ‘businesses’ that have more than $100M in annual revenue; the players continue to (theoretically) get the same ‘compensation’ – tuition, room, and board – although fewer of them receive the scholarships, as Stacey noted; and coaches are the ones who seem to be capturing more and more of the economic ‘rents’ created by the TV contracts, as Andrew noted when we started here several weeks ago.
Friday, March 30, 2007
Most Memorable Semifinal Games Since 1979, Part II
This entry is cross-posted at TNR's blog, Posting Up:
We’re now down to about 24 hours before tip-off for the National Semifinal games.
Just as a reminder, this list is only for semifinal games, not Championship games. So no Jimmy V looking for someone to hug, no Keith Smart from the corner, no Mateen Cleaves dancing (although that looks like the start of another list...)
The list also begins in 1979, the year of the Bird-Magic final. That year’s Final Four was memorable for other reasons, as it featured not one, but two Cinderellas (Bird’s Indiana State, although a #1 seed, was from a mid-major conference; and #9 Penn), as well as another team (DePaul) that looked as though it was on the verge of becoming the dominant force in college basketball in the early 1980s. With Mark Aguirre (who was the NBA’s #1 overall pick in 1981) and Terry Cummings (#2 overall in 1982), the Blue Demons were derailed by UCLA in 1980 (UCLA eventually played in the National Championship that year), and then stunned by St. Joseph’s in 1981 in an early round game – albeit underappreciated today – that surely ranks among the greatest upsets in NCAA history.
Without further ado, Numbers 5 through 1:
5. (#1) Indiana 97 / (#1) UNLV 93 (1987)
Despite having one of the best shooters in the game (Steve Alford), Indiana Coach Bob Knight had been a vocal opponent of the 3-point line, which was introduced that year. No one adapted faster to the new rule faster than UNLV (37-1 going into the game), and the Rebels hoisted 35 threes in the semis, including 10-for-19 from guard Freddie Banks (38 points). Armon Gilliam added 32, despite facing double-teams (Indiana essentially left UNLV guard Mark Wade unguarded, as he was a poor shooter); Wade, to his credit, handed out 18 assists, a tournament record.
Indiana only took four three-pointers, all by Alford (2-4, on his way to 33 points), and received unexpected help off the bench from a well-coiffed Steve Eyl. After the game Knight was unrepentant: "This game was a classic example of how much influence shooting now has on the game because they got 13 three-pointers and that was worth an extra 13 points. I believe basketball should involve passing and a lot of other things, not just coming down the court and throwing it in."
4. (#1) Michigan 81 / (#1) Kentucky 78 (OT) (1993)
A year removed from the heartbreak of the ‘Laettner game’, Kentucky’s Rick Pitino brought a hungry and talented team to New Orleans, with players such as Jamal Mashburn, Travis Ford, and Jared Prickett, and an average margin of victory of 31 in its four NCAA tournament games. But Michigan’s Fab Five – Chris Webber, Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, Jimmy King, and Ray Jackson –were not only one of the best recruiting classes ever, but a still-influential fashion statement: they invented – or at least widely popularized – the baggy-short-look for colleges.
Facing a double digit deficit with 14 minutes left, the Wildcats started pounding the ball to Mashburn, and eventually tied the game with 1:26 left in regulation. But when ‘Mash’ fouled out, Pitino had to mix-and-match lineups in the extra period; finally with four second left in the OT, and Michigan clinging to a 3-point lead, Webber made two straight deflections on in-bound plays, including a ‘heads-up’ second one from the baseline where he tipped the ball back towards mid-court, forcing a desperation heave by Kentucky’s Tony Delk that fell short.
But like Freddie Brown in 1982, Webber’s reputation as a crafty end-of-game player would last just 48 hours.
Interesting sidenote: the 1993 Final Four featured three #1s (Michigan, Kentucky, and UNC) and one #2 (Kansas) – the best ‘chalk’ ever.
3. 1984 (both games)
(#1) Georgetown 53 / (#1) Kentucky 40
At halftime, the budding Georgetown dynasty was at risk. The Hoyas had suffered through two scoring droughts of more than 5:00 minutes in the first half, trailed at one point 27-15, and more importantly, had their franchise center, Patrick Ewing, saddled with three personal fouls.
But coming out for the second half, it was Kentucky who went cold. The Cats went scoreless for the first 10 minutes of the second half, scored 2 points, then went another 7 minutes without another score. The whole crowd – including Georgetown fans – cheered when the Cats ended the worst drought in Final Four history.
Interesting sidenote: this game was only the second-biggest disaster that Kentucky’s Sam Bowie (was involved with during 1984, although he was only an innocent bystander in the June meltdown in Portland.
(#2) Houston 49 / (#7) Virginia 47 (OT)
Before there was a “Ewing Theory”, there was a “Sampson Theory.” In 1984, Virginia looked to be undergoing a rebuilding year, having lost 3-time college player-of-the-year Ralph Sampson to graduation the year before; but after going to just one Final Four with Sampson (in 1981), Othell Wilson took an undermanned and undersized team to the brink of the title game.
Houston’s Guy Lewis – the 80s coaching version of Dick Cheney – had seemingly learned nothing from his experience in 1983 (see below). The entire game was played at UVA’s slow, patient pace, despite Houston’s superior athleticism. In the last minute of regulation, the Cougars turned the ball over three times without a call of timeout, and barely escaped the NC State-esque ending. Georgetown would overpower Houston two nights later, however.
2. (#2) Duke 79 / (#1) UNLV 77 (1991)
A year removed from a 103-73 pasting in the Championship Game from the same Runnin’ Rebels (like Florida this year, the core of the UNLV team returned as defending champs), Duke ended a 45-game winning streak and ended talk of ‘greatest team of all time.’
UNLV had rolled through the regular season and the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament with an average victory margin of 29, and had rarely been involved in a tight game. And when point guard Greg Anthony fouled out late in the second half, the Rebels were suddenly rudderless in the closest game they had played in close to two years. Bobby Hurley, the slightest man on the court – and who, along with Christian Laettner, helped put the “detest” in “Duke” for many – belied his reputation (to that point) as a poor shooter by burying a huge 3-ball with a little over two minutes remaining to bring Duke within 2. Brian Davis then gave Duke the lead, with a conventional three-point play, and the UNLV reign ended in a haze of missed foul-shots (Larry Johnson went 1-3 from the line), and a botched last-second ‘play.’
Two nights later, the Blue Devils escaped the can’t-win-the-big-one tag by beating Kansas for the National Championship. A year later they repeated, a feat that the Gators are seeking to match in Atlanta.
1. (#1) Houston 94 / (#1) Louisville 81 (1983)
Phi Sla(m)ma Ja(m)ma vs. the Doctors of Dunk. Thought to be the ‘real’ championship game (especially since the other semifinal featured two low seeds (#6 NC State vs. #4 Georgia).
And the game delivered. Referee Hank Nichols calls the game “The Blitzkrieg.” At one point, there were 11 dunks in 14 minutes. A note that was passed down press row during the game: “Welcome to the 21st Century.”
An end-to-end game in a real college gym (not a dome) that featured (H)Akeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, Michael Young, Larry Micheaux, and Alvin Franklin for Houston and Milt Wagner, Rodney McCrae, Scooter McCrae, Billy Thompson (one of the first ‘super frosh’), and Lancaster Gordon for Louisville.
When Houston’s sixth man, Benny (called “The Outlaw”, but who would have fit in on the Jackson’s Victory tour) Anders, was asked, in the post-game interview room, about “one of the dunks” he had to ask, “which one?”
Of course, earlier in the season Anders had said, “I like the dunk. It’s a high percentage shot.”
This is a must-Tivo on ESPN Classic, if you have the opportunity.
Interesting sidenote #1: Houston starter Micheaux fouled out with 13:28 left because Guy Lewis didn’t know he had four fouls; two nights later in the final against NC State, Lewis made the same mistake when Drexler picked up his fourth foul with 2:38 left in the first half!
Interesting sidenote #2: In her story after the NC State victory in the final, then-Boston Globe reporter Lesley Visser asked rhetorically about Lewis’ decision to slow the pace midway in the second half:
Interesting Sidenote #3: The toughest of all of the Cougars, Larry (“Mr. Mean”) Micheaux is now a high school teacher in Stafford, Texas. You never know.
I couldn’t include every great game, or memorable moment in this list. A few that ‘just missed’: Duke 81 / Indiana 78 (1992), Coach K vs. Bob Knight (“The circle is now complete. When I left you, I was but the learner; now I am the master.”); or Duke 70 / Florida 65 (1994), giving Grant Hill the chance to win three titles; or Kentucky 86 / Stanford 85 (OT) (1998). And of course, without semifinal wins like NC State over Georgia in 1983, or Villanova over Memphis State in 1985, the memories of those respective Finals would have a different flavor.
But here’s hoping that this weekend’s games add a few more memories to this list.
We’re now down to about 24 hours before tip-off for the National Semifinal games.
Just as a reminder, this list is only for semifinal games, not Championship games. So no Jimmy V looking for someone to hug, no Keith Smart from the corner, no Mateen Cleaves dancing (although that looks like the start of another list...)
The list also begins in 1979, the year of the Bird-Magic final. That year’s Final Four was memorable for other reasons, as it featured not one, but two Cinderellas (Bird’s Indiana State, although a #1 seed, was from a mid-major conference; and #9 Penn), as well as another team (DePaul) that looked as though it was on the verge of becoming the dominant force in college basketball in the early 1980s. With Mark Aguirre (who was the NBA’s #1 overall pick in 1981) and Terry Cummings (#2 overall in 1982), the Blue Demons were derailed by UCLA in 1980 (UCLA eventually played in the National Championship that year), and then stunned by St. Joseph’s in 1981 in an early round game – albeit underappreciated today – that surely ranks among the greatest upsets in NCAA history.
Without further ado, Numbers 5 through 1:
5. (#1) Indiana 97 / (#1) UNLV 93 (1987)
Despite having one of the best shooters in the game (Steve Alford), Indiana Coach Bob Knight had been a vocal opponent of the 3-point line, which was introduced that year. No one adapted faster to the new rule faster than UNLV (37-1 going into the game), and the Rebels hoisted 35 threes in the semis, including 10-for-19 from guard Freddie Banks (38 points). Armon Gilliam added 32, despite facing double-teams (Indiana essentially left UNLV guard Mark Wade unguarded, as he was a poor shooter); Wade, to his credit, handed out 18 assists, a tournament record.
Indiana only took four three-pointers, all by Alford (2-4, on his way to 33 points), and received unexpected help off the bench from a well-coiffed Steve Eyl. After the game Knight was unrepentant: "This game was a classic example of how much influence shooting now has on the game because they got 13 three-pointers and that was worth an extra 13 points. I believe basketball should involve passing and a lot of other things, not just coming down the court and throwing it in."
4. (#1) Michigan 81 / (#1) Kentucky 78 (OT) (1993)
A year removed from the heartbreak of the ‘Laettner game’, Kentucky’s Rick Pitino brought a hungry and talented team to New Orleans, with players such as Jamal Mashburn, Travis Ford, and Jared Prickett, and an average margin of victory of 31 in its four NCAA tournament games. But Michigan’s Fab Five – Chris Webber, Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, Jimmy King, and Ray Jackson –were not only one of the best recruiting classes ever, but a still-influential fashion statement: they invented – or at least widely popularized – the baggy-short-look for colleges.
Facing a double digit deficit with 14 minutes left, the Wildcats started pounding the ball to Mashburn, and eventually tied the game with 1:26 left in regulation. But when ‘Mash’ fouled out, Pitino had to mix-and-match lineups in the extra period; finally with four second left in the OT, and Michigan clinging to a 3-point lead, Webber made two straight deflections on in-bound plays, including a ‘heads-up’ second one from the baseline where he tipped the ball back towards mid-court, forcing a desperation heave by Kentucky’s Tony Delk that fell short.
But like Freddie Brown in 1982, Webber’s reputation as a crafty end-of-game player would last just 48 hours.
Interesting sidenote: the 1993 Final Four featured three #1s (Michigan, Kentucky, and UNC) and one #2 (Kansas) – the best ‘chalk’ ever.
3. 1984 (both games)
(#1) Georgetown 53 / (#1) Kentucky 40
At halftime, the budding Georgetown dynasty was at risk. The Hoyas had suffered through two scoring droughts of more than 5:00 minutes in the first half, trailed at one point 27-15, and more importantly, had their franchise center, Patrick Ewing, saddled with three personal fouls.
But coming out for the second half, it was Kentucky who went cold. The Cats went scoreless for the first 10 minutes of the second half, scored 2 points, then went another 7 minutes without another score. The whole crowd – including Georgetown fans – cheered when the Cats ended the worst drought in Final Four history.
Interesting sidenote: this game was only the second-biggest disaster that Kentucky’s Sam Bowie (was involved with during 1984, although he was only an innocent bystander in the June meltdown in Portland.
(#2) Houston 49 / (#7) Virginia 47 (OT)
Before there was a “Ewing Theory”, there was a “Sampson Theory.” In 1984, Virginia looked to be undergoing a rebuilding year, having lost 3-time college player-of-the-year Ralph Sampson to graduation the year before; but after going to just one Final Four with Sampson (in 1981), Othell Wilson took an undermanned and undersized team to the brink of the title game.
Houston’s Guy Lewis – the 80s coaching version of Dick Cheney – had seemingly learned nothing from his experience in 1983 (see below). The entire game was played at UVA’s slow, patient pace, despite Houston’s superior athleticism. In the last minute of regulation, the Cougars turned the ball over three times without a call of timeout, and barely escaped the NC State-esque ending. Georgetown would overpower Houston two nights later, however.
2. (#2) Duke 79 / (#1) UNLV 77 (1991)
A year removed from a 103-73 pasting in the Championship Game from the same Runnin’ Rebels (like Florida this year, the core of the UNLV team returned as defending champs), Duke ended a 45-game winning streak and ended talk of ‘greatest team of all time.’
UNLV had rolled through the regular season and the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament with an average victory margin of 29, and had rarely been involved in a tight game. And when point guard Greg Anthony fouled out late in the second half, the Rebels were suddenly rudderless in the closest game they had played in close to two years. Bobby Hurley, the slightest man on the court – and who, along with Christian Laettner, helped put the “detest” in “Duke” for many – belied his reputation (to that point) as a poor shooter by burying a huge 3-ball with a little over two minutes remaining to bring Duke within 2. Brian Davis then gave Duke the lead, with a conventional three-point play, and the UNLV reign ended in a haze of missed foul-shots (Larry Johnson went 1-3 from the line), and a botched last-second ‘play.’
Two nights later, the Blue Devils escaped the can’t-win-the-big-one tag by beating Kansas for the National Championship. A year later they repeated, a feat that the Gators are seeking to match in Atlanta.
1. (#1) Houston 94 / (#1) Louisville 81 (1983)
Phi Sla(m)ma Ja(m)ma vs. the Doctors of Dunk. Thought to be the ‘real’ championship game (especially since the other semifinal featured two low seeds (#6 NC State vs. #4 Georgia).
And the game delivered. Referee Hank Nichols calls the game “The Blitzkrieg.” At one point, there were 11 dunks in 14 minutes. A note that was passed down press row during the game: “Welcome to the 21st Century.”
An end-to-end game in a real college gym (not a dome) that featured (H)Akeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, Michael Young, Larry Micheaux, and Alvin Franklin for Houston and Milt Wagner, Rodney McCrae, Scooter McCrae, Billy Thompson (one of the first ‘super frosh’), and Lancaster Gordon for Louisville.
When Houston’s sixth man, Benny (called “The Outlaw”, but who would have fit in on the Jackson’s Victory tour) Anders, was asked, in the post-game interview room, about “one of the dunks” he had to ask, “which one?”
Of course, earlier in the season Anders had said, “I like the dunk. It’s a high percentage shot.”
This is a must-Tivo on ESPN Classic, if you have the opportunity.
Interesting sidenote #1: Houston starter Micheaux fouled out with 13:28 left because Guy Lewis didn’t know he had four fouls; two nights later in the final against NC State, Lewis made the same mistake when Drexler picked up his fourth foul with 2:38 left in the first half!
Interesting sidenote #2: In her story after the NC State victory in the final, then-Boston Globe reporter Lesley Visser asked rhetorically about Lewis’ decision to slow the pace midway in the second half:
Why, they asked, did Houston coach Guy Lewis, a man who had coached for 27 years, signal for a stall when the team led by seven points with 10 minutes left? Or, as one coach said in a bar after the game, "Ninety-thousand dollars of recruiting on the floor and he has them play like Princeton.
Interesting Sidenote #3: The toughest of all of the Cougars, Larry (“Mr. Mean”) Micheaux is now a high school teacher in Stafford, Texas. You never know.
I couldn’t include every great game, or memorable moment in this list. A few that ‘just missed’: Duke 81 / Indiana 78 (1992), Coach K vs. Bob Knight (“The circle is now complete. When I left you, I was but the learner; now I am the master.”); or Duke 70 / Florida 65 (1994), giving Grant Hill the chance to win three titles; or Kentucky 86 / Stanford 85 (OT) (1998). And of course, without semifinal wins like NC State over Georgia in 1983, or Villanova over Memphis State in 1985, the memories of those respective Finals would have a different flavor.
But here’s hoping that this weekend’s games add a few more memories to this list.
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