Stealing Third

In (what proved to be) pivotal Game Four of the 2009 World Series, Johnny Damon pulled the rare feat of stealing two bases on a single play. In the top of the ninth with the score tied and two out, Damon fell behind 1-2, before working Brad Lidge for six more pitches and singling to left field.

Running on the first pitch to Mark Teixeira, Damon stole second, and barely pausing proceeded to take third as with the Phillies' shift, the bag was uncovered. Several Phils could have covered the bag, and Damon probably wouldn't have gone unless he was absolutely certain he could make it. Lidge proceeded to meltdown (hitting Teixeira with a pitch, and giving up an RBI double to A-Rod), and the Series was gone.

The mistake was actually made by Lidge, as it was the pitcher's responsibility to cover third with the shift on. But Phillies SS Jimmy Rollins said:

"I'm the captain of the infield," Rollins said. "It's my job. … I didn't signal to Brad to make sure he gets to third on a throw. All you've got to do is take two steps in that direction and you stop it right there. But I didn't do my part in making sure he knew the defense we were in."

Why focus on a play that happened four months ago? The same sort of mental mistake just occurred in Massachusetts. As the NYT reported today, as of December 16th, Martha Coakley was leading Scott Brown by 13 percentage points(*); but inside the numbers (or "cross-tabs"), when the respondents were limited to just those "likely" to vote, Coakley's lead shrunk to just 3 points. Scary numbers for Dems, and encouraging ones for the GOP.

(*)-The Times cites a GOP poll, but presumably other public polls (and Dem polls) would have -- or should have -- shown the same results.

As the Times shows, the GOP and Tea Partiers, used the holiday season -- when Coakley went off the trail for at least six days -- to build up momentum quietly behind Brown. By the time the public at large -- and the media -- caught up to the campaign, the "Brown-out" had broken out. Momentum and likeability -- combined with a public race that really lasted just two weeks (shortly after New Years through last Tuesday) -- spelled doom for Coakley.

No one has played the role of J-Roll in the Democratic party. Instead, we saw the incredible scene of dueling quotes on Tuesday -- before the voting booths had even closed.

Pedro Redux

After a losing -- albeit commendable -- performance in Game 2 of the World Series, Charlie Manuel gives Pedro Martinez the ball again tonight in Game 6.

And not unlike Grady Little back in 2003, Manuel stayed with Pedro past the 100-pitch mark, and it almost cost the Phils: after giving up just two hits (both of which were home runs), Charlie sent Pedro out for the 7th, and he gave up two straight hits before being relieved (the first runner, Jerry Hairston, Jr., eventually scored.)

The Phils' bullpen has been shaky all season. Pedro is almost sure to need help from the pen. 37-year old Andy Pettitte is pitching on short rest.

Must see TV indeed.

WWGD?

The Phillies send Pedro Martinez to the mound tonight at Yankee Stadium after taking a 1-0 World Series lead last night. Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel was roundly criticized after pulling Martinez in Game 2 of the NLCS despite a 1-0 lead and just 87 pitches (through seven innings).

At the time, the Phillies bullpen seemed shaky: Brad Lidge had lost the "closer" job late in the season, and ended the year with an 0-8 record and a 7.21 ERA. (A year ago he had been 48-for-48 in regular season and post-season saves.)

The Phillies' pen has been better in recent games, and perhaps Manuel will feel confident in that performance. But in another cold night in the Bronx, the ghost of Grady Little will undoubtedly be lingering over Pedro and his manager as the dreaded 100-pitch limit approaches.

Projecting the Hall of Famers in the 2008 World Series

While Fox Sports may be disappointed by a Tampa Bay Rays/Philadelphia Phillies World Series, a fan of old-fashioned baseball should look forward to the match-up.

Tampa is riding one of the great sports stories of all time: never having won more than 70 games in a season, the Rays dropped the "Devil" and went from a worst-in-baseball 66 wins a year ago to 97 wins (trailing only the LA Angels, and tied with the Cubs.)

Playing in a division with two super-powers, the Rays have adapted by drafting good young talent, and building a team that should be able to compete for the next 3-4 years. Evan Longoria (22 years old), BJ Upton (23), and Carl Crawford (26(!)) are the anchors to build a line-up around. And the pitching is perhaps even better, with James Shields (26), Scott Kazmir (24), Matt Garza (24), and live-armed David Price (22).

Historically, virtually every World Series champ sports at least one Hall-of-Famer (see below posts for the comprehensive (we hope) list), and many have two or three. (From 1903 to 1980, every single team had at least one player; the 1981 strike-season Dodgers have only manager Tommy Lasorda, and like the 2005 Chicago White Sox, seem unlikely to add any more players.) While the vagaries of the Hall-of-Fame selection process are the subject for another post, the relationship between the HOF and WS Champs is probably two-fold:

1. In order to win, you need great years out of your great players. Like a bad penny, 'bad' players --- Babe Ruth, Tris Speaker, Harry Hooper, Johnny Evers in the old days, and Jack Morris, Rickey Henderson, and Reggie Jackson in the modern ones -- keep showing up with championship teams.

2. Hall-of-Fame voters -- like other voters in other elections -- like winners. When your team wins the title, you are more likely to be remembered, and enshrined in Cooperstown. Yes, yes... we are talking about you, Curt Schilling. And Enos Slaughter as well. And of course (and ironically, as his career ended when the Yankees cut him to make room for Slaughter in August, 1956), Phil Rizzuto. A World Series title or two is a huge bonus for a guy who otherwise would be on the HOF bubble.

So who are the HOF candidates for these two teams? For the Phillies, it's easy: 1B Ryan Howard and SS Jimmy Rollins have both taken significant steps towards Cooperstown in their first few years in the bigs (5 years for Howard, 9 for Rollins). Both have earned more than half of the mythical 100 points that Bill James has documented is necessary to be a 'likely HOFer' in his HOF Monitor. (Howard has 63.5/100, while Rollins has 58/100.) And both will take a further step if their team wins it's first title in 28 years.

Tampa's players are so young, in contrast, that no one is on track for the HOF. Crawford, the longest tenured Ray with 7 years, has accumulated just 31.5 HOF Monitor 'points'; however his list of "similar players" includes HOFers Sam Crawford and Roberto Clemente. Closer Troy Percival is a potential HOFer (86/100), but he has been hurt and has yet to pitch in the 2008 post-season.

Tampa seems deeper and better. And the Rays win, we could be looking back some day to the day when a young Ray took the first step toward baseball immortality.

Prediction: Rays in 6.

And another rebuilding year in the Bronx in 2009.

The Big 5 is Back (!)

What a difference two weeks makes!

Back at the end of February, the Big 5's streak of consecutive NCAA appearances appeared to be in serious jeopardy, as LaSalle and UPenn had been declared dead, and Villanova, Temple, and St. Joe's were in serious trouble.

Instead, Temple won its way in by winning the A-10 tourney (and beating St. Joes in the final), and Villanova knocked off Syracuse in an 'elimination' game at the Big East tourney.

All were seeded in the bottom half of the bracket however, with two #12-seeds (Nova and Temple) and one #11 (St. Joe)

A Cathedral of Basketball

Speaking of the Palestra, a recent film by former UPenn basketball player Mikaelyn Austin on the history of the Palestra.

Built in 1926, the Palestra has become both a symbol of college basketball, and of an earlier age; built without the benefit of modern conveniences such as amped-in sound and luxury boxes, it nonetheless remains, with perhaps Cameron Indoor, as the classic on-campus basketball gym. From the unique lighting (currently only on one side of the court) to the sound-proofing (none, so all crowd noise rattles around the concrete-and-steel interior), walking into the gym is like stepping back in time.

The film works in both vintage footage from the 1950s and 1960s, together with interviews from some of the personalities who stalked the sidelines -- Chuck Daly, Rollie Massimino, and Bill Raftery, among others. The emphasis is clearly on the Big 5 rivalries, and the era in college basketball -- and Philadelphia civics -- that has come and gone.

The film points to the 1979 Magic/Bird NCAA Final as the death-knell for the Big 5, and hence the Palestra as the hub of basketball in Philly. But while that Championship Game did usher in a new era for the NCAA, the irony is that the Big 5 helped 'kill' itself:

* UPenn itself was a participant in the 1979 Final Four, the last Ivy team to advance past the first weekend (although in 1983, Princeton won two games, one of which was a 'preliminary' round.)

* Two years later, St. Joseph's knocked off the consensus #1 team, DePaul, in the Blue Demons' opening game (St. Joe's had to beat Creighton to have the right to play DePaul), and lost in the Elite Eight.

* Villanova, on the back of their own Elite Eight appearances in 1982, and 1983, pulled one of the great upsets in Finals history by beating Patrick Ewing's Georgetown Hoyas in 1985. (1985 also marked the expansion of the tournament to its current format, with 6 rounds and 64/65 teams.)

With the explosion in the popularity of the NCAA tournament, the value of the television rights followed. At-large bids to the "Big Dance", rather than bragging rights in the City, are what matters, because at-large bids turn into real dollars.

By 1991, CBS signed a 6-year, $1 billion contract for exclusive rights to the tournament. Currently, CBS pays over $500M per year ($6B over 11 years) for the exclusive rights to the Tournament.

One small point on the film: more could have been made about the Penn/Princeton rivalry; and while there is plenty of more modern footage as well, not all of it pleasant for Tiger fans.

Big 5 in Decline

The Globe's Mark Blaudschun notes this morning -- after summarizing the generally down year for men's college basketball in Massachusetts and New England -- that Philadelphia is also suffering. The City of Brotherly Love has a long tradition of great college basketball -- the city rivalries in hoops often surpass the local rivalries of the Beanpot -- through the "Big 5." The Big 5 has been around since 1955, and has always had at least one representative in the NCAA field.

This year, Villanova (17-10, #59 on KenPom, #64 on RPI) and St. Joe's (17-9, #63 Kenpom, #59 RPI) are on the outside of the bubble right now. Temple (15-12, #81 KenPom, #80 RPI), Penn (10-16), and LaSalle (13-13, #158 RPI) are dead, or in need a "Championship Week" miracle to make the Field of 65.

Ah for the glory days of the Palestra.