Showing posts with label Bill James. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bill James. Show all posts

Monday, November 16, 2009

The Value of the Gold Glove

The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract is clearly the touchstone (minus of course, about 241 references to The Karate Kid) for Bill Simmons' Book of Basketball (the BOB)(*). But Simmons also clearly looks to another James book -- Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame -- as a way to try and re-define what it means (in the respective sports) to be a HOFer.

(*) About which more later.

One tool for both analysis is the contemporary voting on awards: MVPs, All-Pro teams, Gold Gloves. James' view on contemporary evaluation of players is summed up as follows:

I advocate that we pay close attention, in evaluating Hall of Fame candidates, to the player's performance in award voting while active -- MVP voting, Gold Glove voting, in-season and post-season All-Star teams. If a player hits .267 with 63 RBI, but wins the MVP award, what does that mean at the time? It means that there was a widespread perception, at the time, that the player's collateral skills (defense, baserunning and leadership) were of exceptional value. Similarly, if a player drives in 162 runs and is hardly mentioned in the MVP voting, what does that mean? It means that there is a widespread perception, at the time, that the player's skills were not good.
The baseball Gold Gloves were awarded last week, and two surprises occurred in the American League: for the fourth time in the last six year, Yankees SS Derek Jeter was awarded a GG, and in the outfield, Torii Hunter and Ichiro each won their ninth consecutive GG, together first-timer Adam Jones (BAL).

Hunter, Ichiro, and Jones are not necessarily bad picks individually by themselves(*), but as highlighted by AP fav Joe Posnanski, the three necessarily cause the omission of Franklin Gutierrez; as explained by JoePos, Gutierrez saved perhaps 31 runs over an "average" centerfield in 2009, although alternative statistics show more in the range of 10-11 runs saved. In any event, there seems to be growing consensus that Guiterrez should won a GG.

Jeter has become a favorite whipping boy for GG critics; his win this year (after two years 'off') restarted the debate around his 'value', although JoePos argues that whether or not he was deserving this year, he had a better defensive year than in the 2004-2006 period, when he won 3 straight. (Or more to the point, over his career, Jeter gets to about 91% of the balls that the average AL shortstop gets to, which means that Yankees pitchers give up an extra hit (a ball not handled) every other game.)

But the larger question is what do we learn from GG awards?

JoePos posits that "We all know that the Gold Glove has become something to reward good offensive players who seem to be pretty decent in the field too." And perhaps that's good enough.(*)

(*)- Of course, such a definition makes the Silver Slugger award -- meant to reward the best offensive player at each position -- superfluous. Such analysis also does not explain the multiple awards to Omar Vizquel (only one GG season with OPS+ above 100) and Eric Chavez (won two GG with OPS+ in the 104-108 range.)

But in a world where the statistical analysis of baseball has broken through, and OPS+ and VORP are cited by mainstream publications, what does it say about the democratic process (as exemplified by Gold Glove voting, which is currently done by managers and coaches (not voting for their own players)?

Or perhaps, like Joe Morgan, the managers and coaches in voting for the Gold Gloves are trying to maintain the power of the "insider."

After all, how good a fielder can Franklin Gutierrez be if he's never won a Gold Glove?

Monday, April 6, 2009

GIGO?

Ken Pomeroy has done a terrific job documenting and analyzing data relating to college basketball, much like Bill James for baseball a generation ago. His blog (and writing at Basketball Prospectus) has introduced new stats such as "Effective Height" and "Defensive Fingerprint." Stats such as these have given observers a set of tools to use to evaluate College Basketball teams.

That being said, the core stat -- the Pomeroy Rating -- has been less than stellar during this NCAA tournament. Although there were few major upsets in the first two rounds of the tournament (meaning that the "power conference" teams mainly survived to the Sweet Sixteen Round), Pomeroy's ratings have had middling results.

With that in mind, let's take a tour back through each of the four regions, comparing Pomeroy's ratings against other ranking systems: the NCAA Men's Committee itself (NCAA), the final AP poll (AP), and RPI (Ratings Percentage Index, as calculated here. (RPI))

Only Sweet Sixteen and later games are used, to try and emphasize the differences between the systems. (After all, every system will get the 1-16 and 2-15 games correctly; by the time you reach the round of 16, the choices are hard, as anyone who's ever done a bracket will tell you.) Note that while KenPom systems remains 'dynamic', adding information from each successive game and updating results, the NCAA, AP, and RPI ratings used here were 'fixed' at the end of the regular season.

EAST

Sweet Sixteen actual teams: Pitt vs. Xavier; Villanova vs. Duke


Predicted results:

NCAA: (1) Pitt over (4) Xav (correct); (2) Duke over (3) Nova (incorrect). (1-1)

AP: (4) Pitt over (20) Xav (correct); (6) Duke over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-1)

RPI: (2) Pitt over (17) Xav (correct); (1) Duke over (13) Nova (incorrect) (1-1)

KenPom: (5) Pitt over (20) Xav (correct); (11) Duke over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-1)


Finals: Pitt vs. Villanova

NCAA: (1) Pitt over (3) Nova (incorrect). (1-2, cumulative)

AP: (4) Pitt over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-2)

RPI: (2) Pitt over (13) Nova (incorrect) (1-2)

KenPom: (5) Pitt over (14) Nova (incorrect) (1-2)


SOUTH

Sweet Sixteen actual teams: UNC vs. Gonzaga; Syracuse vs. Oklahoma


NCAA: (1) UNC over (4) Gonzaga (correct); (2) OU over (3) Cuse (correct) (3-2, cumulative)

AP: (2) UNC over (10) Gonzaga (corret); (7) OU over (13) Cuse (correct) (3-2)

RPI: (3) UNC over (26) Zaga (correct); (5) OU over (12) Cuse (correct); (3-2)

KenPom: (3) UNC over (8) Zaga (correct); (13) OU over (15) Cuse (correct); (3-2)


Finals: UNC vs. OU

NCAA: (1) UNC over (2) OU over (4-2, cumulative)

AP: (2) UNC over (7) OU (correct) (4-2)

RPI: (3) UNC over (5) OU over (correct); (4-2)

KenPom: (3) UNC over (13) (correct); (4-2)


MIDWEST

Sweet Sixteen actual teams: Louisville vs. Arizona; Kansas vs, Michigan State.


NCAA: (1) Lou over (12) Ariz (correct); (2) MSU over (3) KU (correct) (6-2, cumulative)

AP: (1) Lou over (NR) Ariz (correct); (8) MSU over (14) KU (correct) (6-2)

RPI: (4) Lou over (62) Ariz (correct); (6) MSU over (11) KU (correct) (6-2)

KenPom: (4) Lou over (40) Ariz (correct); (7) MSU over (10) KU (correct) (6-2)


Finals: Lou vs. MSU

NCAA: (1) Lou over (2) MSU (incorrect) (6-3, cumulative)

AP: (1) Lou over (8) MSU (incorrect) (6-3)

RPI: (4) Lou over (6) MSU (incorrect)(6-3)

KenPom: (4) Lou over (7) MSU (incorrect) (6-3)


WEST

Sweet Sixteen Actual teams: UConn vs. Purdue; Missouri vs. Memphis


NCAA: (1) UConn over (5) Purdue (correct); (2) Mem over (3) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)

AP: (5) UConn over (17) Purdue (correct); (3) Mem over (9) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)

RPI: (8) UConn over (20) Purdue (correct); (7) Mem over (10) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)

KenPom: (2) Uconn over (17) Purdue (correct); (1) Mem over (6) Mizzou (incorrect) (7-4)


Finals: UConn vs. Mizzou

NCAA: (1) UConn over (3) Mizzou (correct) (8-4, cumulative)

AP: (5) UConn over (9) Mizzou (correct) (8-4)

RPI: (8) UConn over (10) Mizzou (correct) (8-4)

KenPom: (2) Uconn over (6) Mizzou (correct) (8-4)


FINAL FOUR:

UNC vs. Villanova; MSU vs. UConn.


NCAA: (1) UConn over (2) MSU (incorrect); (1) UNC over (3) Nova (correct) (9-5, cumulative)

AP: (5) UConn vs. (8) MSU (incorrect); (2) UNC over (11) Nova (correct); (9-5)

RPI: (6) MSU over (8) UConn (correct); (3) UNC over (13) Nova (correct) (10-4)

KenPom: (2) UConn over (7) MSU (incorrect); (3) UNC over (14) Nova (correct)(9-5)


CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:

UNC vs. MSU


NCAA: (1) UNC over (2) MSU

AP: (2) UNC over (8) MSU

RPI: (3) UNC over (6) MSU

KenPom: (3) UNC over (7) MSU


As all four systems have the same prediction for tonight's game, there can be no change in the final standings, which leaves the much maligned RPI as the 'most accurate', at least for this year.

RPI: 11-4 or 10-5

NCAA: 10-5 or 9-6

AP: 10-5 or 9-6

KenPom: 10-5 or 9-6

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Projecting the Hall of Famers in the 2008 World Series

While Fox Sports may be disappointed by a Tampa Bay Rays/Philadelphia Phillies World Series, a fan of old-fashioned baseball should look forward to the match-up.

Tampa is riding one of the great sports stories of all time: never having won more than 70 games in a season, the Rays dropped the "Devil" and went from a worst-in-baseball 66 wins a year ago to 97 wins (trailing only the LA Angels, and tied with the Cubs.)

Playing in a division with two super-powers, the Rays have adapted by drafting good young talent, and building a team that should be able to compete for the next 3-4 years. Evan Longoria (22 years old), BJ Upton (23), and Carl Crawford (26(!)) are the anchors to build a line-up around. And the pitching is perhaps even better, with James Shields (26), Scott Kazmir (24), Matt Garza (24), and live-armed David Price (22).

Historically, virtually every World Series champ sports at least one Hall-of-Famer (see below posts for the comprehensive (we hope) list), and many have two or three. (From 1903 to 1980, every single team had at least one player; the 1981 strike-season Dodgers have only manager Tommy Lasorda, and like the 2005 Chicago White Sox, seem unlikely to add any more players.) While the vagaries of the Hall-of-Fame selection process are the subject for another post, the relationship between the HOF and WS Champs is probably two-fold:

1. In order to win, you need great years out of your great players. Like a bad penny, 'bad' players --- Babe Ruth, Tris Speaker, Harry Hooper, Johnny Evers in the old days, and Jack Morris, Rickey Henderson, and Reggie Jackson in the modern ones -- keep showing up with championship teams.

2. Hall-of-Fame voters -- like other voters in other elections -- like winners. When your team wins the title, you are more likely to be remembered, and enshrined in Cooperstown. Yes, yes... we are talking about you, Curt Schilling. And Enos Slaughter as well. And of course (and ironically, as his career ended when the Yankees cut him to make room for Slaughter in August, 1956), Phil Rizzuto. A World Series title or two is a huge bonus for a guy who otherwise would be on the HOF bubble.

So who are the HOF candidates for these two teams? For the Phillies, it's easy: 1B Ryan Howard and SS Jimmy Rollins have both taken significant steps towards Cooperstown in their first few years in the bigs (5 years for Howard, 9 for Rollins). Both have earned more than half of the mythical 100 points that Bill James has documented is necessary to be a 'likely HOFer' in his HOF Monitor. (Howard has 63.5/100, while Rollins has 58/100.) And both will take a further step if their team wins it's first title in 28 years.

Tampa's players are so young, in contrast, that no one is on track for the HOF. Crawford, the longest tenured Ray with 7 years, has accumulated just 31.5 HOF Monitor 'points'; however his list of "similar players" includes HOFers Sam Crawford and Roberto Clemente. Closer Troy Percival is a potential HOFer (86/100), but he has been hurt and has yet to pitch in the 2008 post-season.

Tampa seems deeper and better. And the Rays win, we could be looking back some day to the day when a young Ray took the first step toward baseball immortality.

Prediction: Rays in 6.

And another rebuilding year in the Bronx in 2009.

World Series Champs and Hall of Famers (2001 - 2007)

(All likely or possible HOFers.)

2007 - Boston Red Sox (OF Manny Ramirez (on Bill James' HOF Monitor, 208 out of 100), P Curt Schilling (171/100))

2006 - St. Louis Cardinals (1B Albert Pujols (189/100), Mgr. Tony LaRussa)

2005 - Chicago White Sox

2004 - Boston Red Sox (P Pedro Martinez (202/100), Ramirez, Schilling)

2003 - Florida Marlins (C Pudge Rodriguez (228/100))

2002 - Anaheim Angels (P Troy Percival (86/100))

2001 - Arizona Diamondbacks (Schilling, P Randy Johnson (322/100))

Projected HOFers = 11, out of 6 WS Championship teams = 1.8 HOF/WS

Note: DH Frank Thomas played 34G for 2005 CHW; did not play in WS.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1991 - 2000)

2000 - New York Yankees (No HOFers yet; possible HOFers include P Mariano Rivera (197 out of 100 on Bill James' HOF Monitor), SS Derek Jeter (235/100), P Roger Clemens (331/100), OF Bernie Williams (133/100)).

1999 - New York Yankees (none; likely Rivera, Jeter, Clemens, Williams)

1998 - New York Yankees (none; likely Rivera, Jeter, Williams)

1997 - Florida Marlins (none; possible HOFers: P Kevin Brown (93/100); SS Edgar Renteria (94/100))

1996 - New York Yankees (3B Wade Boggs; possible HOFers: Jeter, Rivera, Williams)

1995 - Atlanta Braves 3B Chipper Jones (159.5/100), P Greg Maddux (255/100), P John Smoltz (167/100), P Tom Glavine (176/100))

1994 - Not played

1993 - Toronto Blue Jays (DH Paul Molitor; other likely HOFers: 2B Roberto Alomar (193/100), OF Ricky Henderson (183/100))

1992 - Toronto Blue Jays (DH Dave Winfield; other possible HOFers: Alomar, P Jack Morris (122.5/100; 0-2, 8.44ERA in WS), P David Cone (103/100))

1991 - Minnesota Twins (OF Kirby Puckett; other possible HOFers: Morris, P Rick Aguilera (90(!)/100))

Actual HOFers = 4
Projected HOFers = 27, 9 WS Championship Teams = 3.0 HOF/WS

Note: Morris also on 1993 TOR (7-12, 6.19), but did not pitch in WS.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1981 - 1990)

1990 - Cincinnati Reds (None; other possible HOFers: SS Barry Larkin (118.5 on Bill James' HOF Monitor scale; 100 is "Likely HOFer"); P Randy Myers (97/100 HOF Monitor))

1989 - Oakland Athletics (P Dennis Eckersley; other possible HOFers: Rickey Henderson (183/100), Mark McGwire (163/100); Jose Canseco (101/100); Tony LaRussa (#3 all-time managerial wins))

1988 - Los Angeles Dodgers (Mgr Tommy Lasorda; other possible HOFers: P Orel Hershiser (90.5/100); Fernando Valenzuela (66.5/100))

1987 - Minnesota Twins (OF Kirby Puckett; other possible HOFers: P Bert Blyleven (120/100))

1986 - New York Mets (C Gary Carter; other possible HOFers: 1B Keith Hernandez (86/100))

1985 - Kansas City Royals (3B George Brett; other possibles HOFers: 2B Frank White (81/100))

1984 - Detroit Tigers (Mgr Sparky Anderson; other possible HOFers: P Jack Morris (122.5/100))

1983 - Baltimore Orioles (1B Eddie Murray, SS Cal Ripken, P Jim Palmer (1-0 in 2 IP in WS))

1982 - St. Louis Cardinals (SS Ozzie Smith, P Bruce Sutter)

1981 - Los Angeles Dodgers (Mgr Tommy Lasorda; other possible HOFers: 1B Steve Garvey (130.5/100))

12 HOFers, 10 WS Championship Teams = 1.2 HOFers/WS

Note: P Don Sutton was 3-6 for 1988 LAD, but pitched last game in August, 1988.

Note2: P Steve Carlton was 1-5 for 1987 MIN, did not pitch in post-season.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1971 - 1980)

1980 - Philadelphia Phillies (3B Mike Schmidt, P Steve Carlton)

1979 - Pittsburgh Pirates (1B Willie Stargell)

1978 - New York Yankees (OF Reggie Jackson, P Catfish Hunter)

1977 - New York Yankees (Jackson, Hunter)

1976 - Cincinnati Reds (C Johnny Bench, 1B Tony Perez, 2B Joe Morgan, Mgr Sparky Anderson)

1975 - Cincinnati Reds (Bench, Perez, Morgan, Anderson)

1974 - Oakland Athletics (Mgr Dick Williams, P Catfish Hunter, OF Reggie Jackson, P Rollie Fingers)

1973 - Oakland Athletics (Williams, Hunter, Jackson, Fingers)

1972 - Oakland Athletics (Williams, Hunter, Jackson, Fingers)

1971 - Pittsburgh Pirates (Stargell, OF Roberto Clemente)

29 HOFers, 10 WS Championship teams = 2.9 HOF/WS.

Note: 1B/3B Pete Rose was a member of 1980 PHI, 1976 CIN, 1975 CIN.

Note(2): OF Orlando Cepeda played 3G for 1972 OAK.

Note(3): Bob Lemon was manager of 1978 NYY.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1961 - 1970)

1970 - Baltimore Orioles (Mgr Earl Weaver, 3B Brooks Robinson, OF Frank Robinson, P Jim Palmer)

1969 - New York Mets (P Tom Seaver, P Nolan Ryan (6-3); 2.1 IP in WS)

1968 - Detroit Tigers (OF Al Kaline (102 G, 11-29, 2HR in WS), 3B Eddie Mathews (52AB; 1-3 AB in WS)

1967 - St. Louis Cardinals (OF Lou Brock, P Bob Gibson, 1B Orlando Cepeda, P Steve Carlton (14-9, 193 IP; 0-1 in WS))

1966 - Baltimore Orioles (B. Robinson, F. Robinson, SS Luis Aparicio, Palmer)

1965 - Los Angeles Dodgers (Mgr. Walter Alston, P Sandy Koufax, P Don Drysdale)

1964 - St. Louis Cardinals (Brock, Gibson)

1963 - Los Angeles Dodgers (Alston, Koufax, Drysdale)

1962 - New York Yankees (OF Mickey Mantle, P Whitey Ford, OF/C Yogi Berra (2AB in WS))

1961 - New York Yankees (Berra, Mantle, Ford)

30 HOFers, 10 WS Championship Teams = 3.0 HOF/WS

Note: 1967 STL managed by Red Schoendienst.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1951 - 1960)

1960 - Pittsburgh Pirates (2B Bill Mazeroski, OF Roberto Clemente)

1959 - Los Angeles Dodgers (Mgr Walter Alston, OF Duke Snider, P Sandy Koufax, P Don Drysdale)

1958 - New York Yankees (Mgr Casey Stengel, C Yogi Berra, OF Mickey Mantle, P Whitey Ford, OF Enos Slaughter (4G, 3AB in WS))

1957 - Milwaukee Braves (2B Red Schoendist, 3B Eddie Mathews, OF Hank Aaron, P Warren Spahn)

1956 - New York Yankees (Stengel, Berra, Mantle, Ford, Slaughter (7-20, 1 HR, 4 RBI in WS))

1955 - Brooklyn Dodgers (Alston, C Roy Campanella, 3B Jackie Robinson, SS Pee Wee Reese, Snider)

1954 - New York Giants (Mgr Leo Durocher, OF Willie Mays, OF Monte Irvin, P Hoyt Wilhelm)

1953 - New York Yankees (Stengel, Berra, Rizzuto, Mantle, Ford)

1952 - New York Yankees (Stengel, Berra, Rizzuto, Mantle)

1951 - New York Yankees (Stengel, Berra, Rizzuto, OF Joe DiMaggio, OF Mickey Mantle (96 G/1-5 in WS))

43 HOFers, 10 WS Championship Teams = 4.3 HOF/WS.

Note: Phil Rizzuto played 31 G for 1956 NYY, but was released August 16th.

Note (2): 1955 BRK roster included P Sandy Koufax (12 G at age 19), and P Tommy Lasorda (4 G). Neither played in the 1955 World Series.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1941 - 1950)

1950 - New York Yankees (Mgr Casey Stengel, C Yogi Berra, SS Phil Rizzuto, OF Joe DiMaggio)

1949 - New York Yankees (Stengel, Berra, Rizzuto, DiMaggio)

1948 - Cleveland Indians (Mgr/SS Lou Boudreau, P Bob Feller, B Bob Lemon, P Satchel Paige)

1947 - New York Yankees (Rizzuto, DiMaggio, Berra (83 G but 3-19, 1HR in WS))

1946 - St. Louis Cardinals (2B Red Schoendist, OF Stan Musial, OF Enos Slaughter)

1945 - Detroit Tigers (P Hal Newhouser, 1B Hank Greenberg (78 games/7-23, 2HR in WS))

1944 - St. Louis Cardinals (Musial)

1943 - New York Yankees (Mgr. Joe McCarthy, C Bill Dickey)

1942 - St. Louis Cardinals (Slaughter, Musial)

1941 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey,Rizzuto, DiMaggio, P Red Ruffing, P Lefty Gomez)

31 HOFs, 10 WS Championship teams = 3.1 HOF/WS

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1931 - 1940)

1940 - Cincinnati Reds (Mgr Bill McKechnie, C Ernie Lombardi)

1939 - New York Yankees (Mgr Joe McCarthy, C Bill Dickey, OF Joe DiMaggio, P Red Ruffing, P Lefty Gomez)

1938 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey, 1B Lou Gehrig, DiMaggio, Ruffing, Gomez)

1937 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey, Gehrig, 2B Tony Lazzeri, DiMaggio, Ruffing, Gomez)

1936 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey, Gehrig, Lazzeri, DiMaggio, Ruffing, Gomez)

1935 - Detroit Tigers (Mgr/C Mickey Cochrane, 1B Hank Greenberg, 2B Charlie Gehringer, OF Goose Goslin)

1934 - St. Louis Cardinals (2B Frankie Frisch, OF Joe Medwick, P Dizzy Dean)

1933 - New York Giants (Mgr/1B Bill Terry, OF Mel Ott, P Carl Hubbell)

1932 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey, 3B Joe Sewell, OF Babe Ruth, Lazzeri, Gehrig, Gomez, Ruffing, P Herb Pennock)

1931 - St. Louis Cardinals (1B Jim Bottomley, 2B Frankie Frisch, OF Chick Hafey, P Burleigh Grimes)

50 HOF, 10 WS Championship Team = 5.0 HOF/WS

Note: SS Leo Durocher played 146 games for 1934 STL, including 7-27, 4 R in WS.

Note(2): C Ernie Lombardi played just 109 G for 1940 CIN, and 2G, 1-3, 1 2B in WS.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1921 - 1930)

1930 - Philadelphia Athletics (Mgr Connie Mack, C Mickey Cochrane, 1B Jimmie Foxx, OF Al Simmons, P Lefty Grove)

1929 - Philadelphia Athletics (Mack, Cochrane, Foxx, Simmons, Grove)

1928 - New York Yankees (OF Babe Ruth, 1B Lou Gehrig, 2B Tony Lazzeri, OF Earle Combs, P Waite Hoyt, P Herb Pennock, Mgr Miller Huggins)

1927 - New York Yankees (Ruth, Gehrig, Lazzeri, Combs, Hoyt, Pennock, Huggins)

1926 - St. Louis Cardinals(Mgr/2B Rogers Hornsby, 1B Jim Bottomley, P Pete Alexander)

1925 - Pittsburgh Pirates (2B Pie Traynor, OF Kiki Cuyler)

1924 - Washington Senators (OF Goose Goslin, P Walter Johnson, OF Sam Rice)

1923 - New York Yankees (Ruth, Pennock, Hoyt, Huggins)

1922 - New York Giants (1B George Kelly, 3B Frankie Frisch, SS Dave Bancroft, Mgr John McGraw)

1921 - New York Giants (Kelly, Frisch, Bancroft, McGraw)


44 HOFs, 10 WS Championship Team = 4.4 HOF/WS

Note: OF Casey Stengel was a member of the 1922 NYG, although was not a HOF player.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1911 - 1920)

1920 - Cleveland Indians (OF Tris Speaker, P Stan Coveleski)

1919 - Cincinnati Reds (OF Edd Roush)

1918 - Boston Red Sox (OF Harry Hooper, OF/P Babe Ruth)

1917 - Chicago White Sox (C Ray Schalk, 2B Eddie Collins, P Red Faber)

1916 - Boston Red Sox (Hooper, Ruth)

1915 - Boston Red Sox (Hooper, OF Tris Speaker, Ruth)

1914 - Boston Braves (SS Rabbit Maranville, 2B Johnny Evers)

1913 - Philadelphia Athletics (Mgr Connie Mack, 2B Eddie Collins, 3B Frank (Home Run) Baker, P Eddie Plank, P Chief Bender, P Herb Pennock)

1912 - Boston Red Sox (OF Harry Hooper, OF Tris Speaker)

1911 - Philadelphia Athletics (Mack, Collins, Baker, Plank, Bender)

28 Hall-of-Famers, 10 WS Championship teams = 2.8 HOF/WS

Note: 1917 CWS Shoeless Joe Jackson also probably a Hall of Famer, but for 1919 Black Sox scandal.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1903 - 1910)

1910 - Philadelphia Athletics (Mgr Connie Mack, 2B Eddie Collins, 3B Frank (Home Run) Baker, P Eddie Plank)

1909 - Pittsburgh Pirates (SS Honus Wagner, P Vic Willis)

1908 - Chicago Cubs (SS Joe Tinker, 2B Johnny Evers, 1B Frank Chance, P Mordecai Brown)

1907 - Chicago Cubs (Tinker,Evers, Chance, Brown)

1906 - Chicago White Sox (SS George Davis, P Ed Walsh)

1905 - New York Giants (P Christy Mathewson, C Roger Bresnahan, P Joe McGinnity)

1904 - not played

1903 - Boston Pilgrims (P Cy Young, Mgr/3B Jimmy Collins)

21 Hall of Famers, 7 WS Championship Teams = 3 HOF/WS champ

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

"It's like rain on your wedding day..."

A few years ago, Alanis Morrisette burst on to the pop music stage with a catchy tune entitled "Ironic." The lyrics purported to describe a series of events that displayed irony:

A traffic jam when you're already late
A no-smoking sign on your cigarette break
It's like ten thousand spoons when all you need is a knife
It's meeting the man of my dreams
And then meeting his beautiful wife
Of course, as any 10th-grade English teacher will tell you, most of the examples in the song were not 'irony' -- defined as incongruity between the actual result of a sequence of events and the normal or expected result -- as much examples of "a-kick-in-the-ass." (But of course, the lyrics would have been more difficult in such case.)

So what does Alanis Morrisette have to do with the present-day Red Sox?

In 2003, the Red Sox experimented (for a few short weeks at least) with the Bill-James-inspired idea of 'closer-by-committee,' which was a concept that was based on two main ideas: first, that a team's best relief pitcher (aka the 'closer') was often utilized in games that would be won anyways; and second, that almost anyone could close. The rational extension of James' philosophy was that a team's best reliever ('closer') should often be used in the 6th, 7th, or 8th inning, when the game hung in the balance; and that any relief pitcher could be used in almost any circumstance.

As chronicled in the Baseball Prospectus book, Mind Game, the plan might have worked. But with a bullpen that suffered through injuries and ineffectiveness, and a manager (Grady Little) who was not enamored with James-ian philosophy, then-rookie GM Theo Epstein pulled the plug on the experiment after two months, and traded for Byung-Hyum Kim, who led the Sox in 2003 with 16 saves.

Fast forward 4 years to the ALCS. The Indians (although it has not been widely reported) have clearly adopted some elements of James' philosophy: their 'closer' -- Joe Borowski -- is not their best relief pitcher (as evidenced by his 5.07 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP), although he did record 45 saves during the course of the season.

But in the three games the Indians have won so far, it has been the Indians' middle relief (especially in comparison to the Sox' ineptitude in Games Two (Gagne, Lopez, and Lester) and Four (Delcarmen)) that has been a large part of the difference. In particular, Rafael Betancourt has been very effective (Games Two and Four). (Zero production out of the #1, #6-9 spots in the Sox order has not helped.)

Borowski has pitched in three games for the Indians so far in the ALCS, but only once (in Game Three) in a save situation. The Sox closer (and second-best pitcher, after Josh Beckett), Jonathan Papelbon, has pitched only once (2 effective innings in Game 2.)

Losing the ALCS because you get nothing out of your major post-season acquisitions (Julio Lugo and JD Drew)? That's a kick-in-the-ass.

Losing the ALCS because Cleveland (and, presumably, its GM Mark Shapiro) does a better job applying James-ian analysis to a baseball situation than the very team that employs James? That, friends, is irony.

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

The Politics of Glory








Phil Rizzuto, who was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame on February 27, 1994, by the Veterans' Committee, died today at the age of 89. Rizzuto was the oldest living HoFer, and his candidacy to the Hall was advanced (according to rumor) by Ted Williams, who declared that "the Red Sox would have won all those pennants if [Rizzuto] had played in front of me[i.e., left fielder Williams]"

By coincidence, over the past few days I have re-read Bill James' "The Politics of Glory: How Baseball's Hall of Fame Really Works" (which was apparently re-published in 1995 as "Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?: Baseball, Cooperstown, and the Politics of Glory"); both titles are a mouthful, but improve on James' 1989 work, "This Time Let's Not Eat the Bones."

James' work was clearly inspired by the controversy in the early 1990s about whether Rizzuto should, in fact, be a Hall-of-Famer. Rizzuto's candidacy was clearly aided by the election (also by the Veterans' Committee, of Bobby Doerr (James gives Ted Williams some credit towards getting his teammate Doerr into the HoF on page 142), and, more importantly, Pee Wee Reese. (To be fair, Rizzuto lost the better part of three years to WWII, which would have helped his career numbers be closer to the HoF 'median' for shortstops.)

James' book intersperses a history of the institution -- and its status apart from MLB -- with the voting constituencies, and more important, an analysis of the HoFers who clearly are at the margin -- Rizzuto (who was on the outs at the time James initially wrote; Don Drysdale; Bill Mazeroski (out at the time; subsequently elected); Ron Santo (still on the outside, looking in); Joe Torre (out then and now, although probably in now thanks to his managerial career; much closer to being in as a player than currently appreciated); George Davis (now in); Jim Kaat (out -- then and now); and Minnie Minoso (not considered a 'true' Negro Leaguer, but lost a significant amount of his career thanks to the color line).

Like all of James' writing, the book is witty and thought-provoking; however, in a re-reading some 14 years after publication, what is truly amazing is the changes in the how we view the game -- James still refers to 'Triple Crown' statistics even though they have been replaced (subsequently, and as a result, in part, of James' work) with stats such as OBP, OPS, and the like.

There will be more on the Hall of Fame here shortly, but the original is a good read, albeit dated (written before Michael Lewis' Moneyball, and shortly after Ken Burns' Baseball; the paperback undoubtedly resolves some of the typos and other editing errors that distract from a compelling narrative.