Pedro Redux

After a losing -- albeit commendable -- performance in Game 2 of the World Series, Charlie Manuel gives Pedro Martinez the ball again tonight in Game 6.

And not unlike Grady Little back in 2003, Manuel stayed with Pedro past the 100-pitch mark, and it almost cost the Phils: after giving up just two hits (both of which were home runs), Charlie sent Pedro out for the 7th, and he gave up two straight hits before being relieved (the first runner, Jerry Hairston, Jr., eventually scored.)

The Phils' bullpen has been shaky all season. Pedro is almost sure to need help from the pen. 37-year old Andy Pettitte is pitching on short rest.

Must see TV indeed.

WWGD?

The Phillies send Pedro Martinez to the mound tonight at Yankee Stadium after taking a 1-0 World Series lead last night. Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel was roundly criticized after pulling Martinez in Game 2 of the NLCS despite a 1-0 lead and just 87 pitches (through seven innings).

At the time, the Phillies bullpen seemed shaky: Brad Lidge had lost the "closer" job late in the season, and ended the year with an 0-8 record and a 7.21 ERA. (A year ago he had been 48-for-48 in regular season and post-season saves.)

The Phillies' pen has been better in recent games, and perhaps Manuel will feel confident in that performance. But in another cold night in the Bronx, the ghost of Grady Little will undoubtedly be lingering over Pedro and his manager as the dreaded 100-pitch limit approaches.

Kwik Kwiz

Which former Red Sox hurler reminds you of Larry Bird: Keith Foulke or Curt Schilling?

A story in this week's Globe (surprisingly highlighted by Dan Shaughnessy today):

Knowing he was too injured to pitch, oft-maligned Keith Foulke (now trying to make a comeback) retired in February 2007 one day before he would have collected $5 million from the Indians just for showing up at work. Here's what Foulke said to the Globe's Stan Grossfeld when asked about Curt ($8 million for not pitching in 2008) Schilling: "He's got to wake up and look himself in the mirror every day."

Here's how Larry Bird's retirement went down:

When Bird finished the 1991-92 season, the prognosis was grim; his body had finally worn out. His contract contained a two-year option for $4.5 million a year, which would automatically take effect on August 15 if he didn't notify the club of his retirement. On August 12, Bird went to see [Celtics CEO Dave] Gavitt and announced he was going to retire. Gavitt, aware of the August 15 deadline and of all the years of dedicated service Larry had given the Celtics, asked him whether he wanted a few more days to think it over. "I know what day this is," Bird replied. "If I'm not going to play and know I can't play, I'm not going to take the money. I'm not going to take one cent I don't earn."

Don't I Know You From Somewhere, Part II?

Doesn't this shot of Brett Hull from 1991 remind you of a recently retired pitcher?





















Hint:

In Time, Perhaps. In Time

Curt Schilling's (seeming) retirement from baseball has been all over the sports pages, together with assessments of whether (or perhaps when) he will become Hall of Famer.

Schilling, in Boston, is considered a virtual shoo-in. And he may well be, although it will be on the strength of three memorable World Series appearances (1993 with the Phillies, 2001 with the Diamondbacks, and the bloody sock in 2004).

But at the end of the day, Schilling's career will be defined in large extent by numbers: 216 career wins, 3.46 ERA, 1.137 WHIP and more importantly: 11-2, 2.23 ERA in 19 post-season starts.

But it's hard to see Schilling going before Bert Blyleven (287 career wins, 3.31 ERA, 1.198 WHIP). Blyleven also went 5-1, 2.47 ERA in 8 postseason appearances.)

It's also hard to see Schill climbing over Jack Morris (254 wins, 3.90 ERA, 1.296 WHIP). Morris' 7-4, 3.80 ERA in 13 post-season games includes one of the all-time great pitching performances.

Even Luis Tiant, who no one thinks is likely to get in any time soon, has a argument with Schill: 229 W, 3.29 ERA, 1.199 WHIP/ 3-0, 2.86 ERA in 4 post-season starts.

Blyleven had been making progress in recent years, jumping from 47.7% in 2007 to 61.9% in 2008, but he plateaued with 62.7% this year. (Jim Rice, a similar border-line HoFer, jumped from 59.5% in 2005 to 63.5% in 2007 to getting over the 75% threshold two years later.)

Morris has a ways to go: his recent number have been 37.1% (2007), 42.9% (2008), and 44% (2009).

Schilling should be rooting hard for both men (Tiant is no longer on the ballot).

Halberstam. and Updike. Williams. and Knight.

On the somber occasion of John Updike's passing, much has been made of his "lyric little" essay, 'Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu."

An interesting sidelight, where Updike plays an 'off-screen' role, is David Halberstam's account of trying to obtain an appointment with Ted Williams in 1990:

My appointment with Mr. Theodore Williams of the Islamorda, Fla., Williams family had been agreed on well in advance, though we had not yet talked to each other. That is normal in matters of this gravity, and our earlier arrangements had been conducted through intermediaries.

My representative was Mr. Robert M. Knight of Bloomington, Ind., who in addition to being my occasional appointments secretary, is coach to the Indiana University basketball team. Mr. Knight, on occasion, has had troubles with members of the press himself, and was almost as celebrated as Mr. Williams in this regard.

It had taken no small amount of time to win over Mr. Knight's good opinion, for somewhat early in our relationship I had failed him on a serious literary point. Mr. Knight, unbeknown to many, is a literary man and I would not be amiss if I referred to him as a kind of literary executor for Mr. Williams. On that earlier occasion, he had quizzed me on my qualifications to write about Mr. Williams.

I had done reasonably well until the final question. Mr. Knight had asked to quote the best-known sentence of John Updike's famous New Yorker piece on Mr. Williams. I had not known, and Mr. Knight had, with no small measure of disdain, pointed out that it said, "Gods do not answer letters."

from Ted Williams: A Portrait in Words and Pictures.

World Series Champs and Hall of Famers (2001 - 2007)

(All likely or possible HOFers.)

2007 - Boston Red Sox (OF Manny Ramirez (on Bill James' HOF Monitor, 208 out of 100), P Curt Schilling (171/100))

2006 - St. Louis Cardinals (1B Albert Pujols (189/100), Mgr. Tony LaRussa)

2005 - Chicago White Sox

2004 - Boston Red Sox (P Pedro Martinez (202/100), Ramirez, Schilling)

2003 - Florida Marlins (C Pudge Rodriguez (228/100))

2002 - Anaheim Angels (P Troy Percival (86/100))

2001 - Arizona Diamondbacks (Schilling, P Randy Johnson (322/100))

Projected HOFers = 11, out of 6 WS Championship teams = 1.8 HOF/WS

Note: DH Frank Thomas played 34G for 2005 CHW; did not play in WS.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1911 - 1920)

1920 - Cleveland Indians (OF Tris Speaker, P Stan Coveleski)

1919 - Cincinnati Reds (OF Edd Roush)

1918 - Boston Red Sox (OF Harry Hooper, OF/P Babe Ruth)

1917 - Chicago White Sox (C Ray Schalk, 2B Eddie Collins, P Red Faber)

1916 - Boston Red Sox (Hooper, Ruth)

1915 - Boston Red Sox (Hooper, OF Tris Speaker, Ruth)

1914 - Boston Braves (SS Rabbit Maranville, 2B Johnny Evers)

1913 - Philadelphia Athletics (Mgr Connie Mack, 2B Eddie Collins, 3B Frank (Home Run) Baker, P Eddie Plank, P Chief Bender, P Herb Pennock)

1912 - Boston Red Sox (OF Harry Hooper, OF Tris Speaker)

1911 - Philadelphia Athletics (Mack, Collins, Baker, Plank, Bender)

28 Hall-of-Famers, 10 WS Championship teams = 2.8 HOF/WS

Note: 1917 CWS Shoeless Joe Jackson also probably a Hall of Famer, but for 1919 Black Sox scandal.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1903 - 1910)

1910 - Philadelphia Athletics (Mgr Connie Mack, 2B Eddie Collins, 3B Frank (Home Run) Baker, P Eddie Plank)

1909 - Pittsburgh Pirates (SS Honus Wagner, P Vic Willis)

1908 - Chicago Cubs (SS Joe Tinker, 2B Johnny Evers, 1B Frank Chance, P Mordecai Brown)

1907 - Chicago Cubs (Tinker,Evers, Chance, Brown)

1906 - Chicago White Sox (SS George Davis, P Ed Walsh)

1905 - New York Giants (P Christy Mathewson, C Roger Bresnahan, P Joe McGinnity)

1904 - not played

1903 - Boston Pilgrims (P Cy Young, Mgr/3B Jimmy Collins)

21 Hall of Famers, 7 WS Championship Teams = 3 HOF/WS champ

Ideas Lost to History III

Julio Lugo as the Red Sox starting shortstop.

Oh wait.

It seems that they can win without him.

Boats Against the Tide

While it has been 20 years since Morgan Magic, it has been an unbelievable 30 years since the first public statement of "Bucky Bleeping Dent."

Although born in 1967 with the Impossible Dream, and baptized with the 1975 World Series, it was truly 1978 that forged "Red Sox Nation."

A season that began with so much promise (the Sox were ahead by 8.5 games on the second place Brewers and 14 on the Yankees on July 17th), ended with an injury-riddled disaster of the "Boston Massacre" in early September.

But despite allegations of "choking", the '78 Sox came off of the mat and closed with a 13-2 streak that allowed them to crawl into a first-place tie with the Yankees on the last game of the season, thanks to the final win in a storied (Sox) career by all-time gamer Luis Tiant.

Richard Bradley chronicles the season, and the Playoff Game between the two clubs (played in Fenway on October 2, 1978), in the "The Greatest Game."

Bradley does a great job of reaching many of the Game's protagonists, and putting them in the frame-of-mind that they were during that October afternoon. From the night before at latter-day Sox' Derek Lowe's favorite 'local watering hole' -- Daisy Buchanan's -- to the tension between Reggie Jackson and Billy Martin (replaced at mid-season by Bob Lemon.)

The pivotal figure -- as in ESPN's chronicle of the previous season, "The Bronx is Burning" -- is Thurman Munson (played by Erik Jensen in the TV series). Munson reminds one of the role apparent played by Jason Varitek on the current Sox team, with value well in excess of OPS+ or OBP.

Unfortunately, the text is from time-to-time littered with logical or editing inconsistencies, which take away from the overall narrative. For instance, in the chapter on the Second Inning of the Playoff Game (page 99), Bradley writes:

Yaz had pulled a home run off a pitcher who almost never gave up home runs -- just 12 in 269 innings up to that point, and only one of those home runs had been hit by a left-handed hitter. Players on both sides knew what that meant: Guidry's fastball wasn't up to par.

So far, so good. But then, it is followed by this non sequiter:

In right field, Lou Piniella, playing in place of the defensively challenged Reggie Jackson, took note. If Yaz had been able to homer off a Guidry fastball, the Red Sox might all be pulling the ball a little more than usual. He resolved that when left-handers came to the plate, he would play a few steps closer to the left field line than he normally would. (Emphasis added)

While such editing issues are not fatal, they pull away from the general impression of the work; but all-in-all, a good read, at least (for Sox fans) until the final pages.

Tampa Bay: AL East champs?

By grinding out wins on successive nights in Boston, the Tampa Bay Rays have made a strong case that they might cling to their 2 1/2 game lead in the AL East, despite a tough September schedule, as previously discussed.

(Of course, after the infamous collapse of the Mets a year ago, going 5-12 over the last 17 games, no lead is safe.)

The Rays have hung in despite losing two stars -- Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria -- for most of the past two months to injury.

They are also an inspiration to small-market teams everywhere: they play in the shadows of AL East superpowers Yankees and Red Sox, with a combined $340M payroll.

In fact, with the Red Sox paying Manny Ramirez's salary for the entire year (a condition for the July 31st three-way trade with the Dodgers and Pirates), the Sox pay almost as much for their (two) leftfielders (Ramirez ($19M) and his replacement, Jason Bay ($6M) as the Rays pay their entire team ($43M).

Tampa Bay Rays.

Good for baseball.

Shades of 1988 (Part I)

While we march towards the 30th(!) anniversary of the seminal modern-day Red Sox/Yankees game (the 2 October 1978 one-game playoff, of which more later), this year also marks the 20th anniversary of 'Morgan Magic.'

John McNamara was a year-and-a-half-removed from Game Six in Shea Stadium, but a disappointed 78-win season in 1987 (collective hang-over from the World Series, personified by Bob Stanley's 4-15, 5.07 ERA, 1.572 WHIP campaign.)

With the 1988 edition stuck in mediocrity (43-42), then-GM Lou Gorman fired McNamara, and gave the helm to local son (and Sox-lifer) Morgan while Gorman interviewed 'real' managers to take over. But when the Sox won 12 in a row, and 19 of 20, the former snow-plow driver dropped the "interim" label.

The 1988 team won the division, but faced the Canseco/McGuire-fueled A'steam in the ALCS.

Morgan led the team to another title in 1990, and again the Sox were swept by the Bash Brothers; but the manager also known as "the other Joe Morgan" still brings a smile to Red Sox Nation.

The State of Manny

Speaking of Manny, it's been a bizarre ten days in Manny-World, punctuated by today's quote:

The Red Sox don't deserve a player like me. During my years here, I've seen how they [the Red Sox] have mistreated other great players when they didn't want them to try to turn the fans against them. The Red Sox did the same with guys like Nomar Garciaparra and Pedro Martinez, and now they do the same with me. Their goal is to paint me as the bad guy. I love Boston fans, but the Red Sox don't deserve me. I'm not talking about money. Mental peace has no price, and I don't have peace here.

In fact, fan sentiment has turned against Manny, at least as judged by the callers on nitwit, er, sports radio.

But why has Manny gone off the deep end all of a sudden? After a relatively quiet first half of the season, where the only news Manny made was that he was actually talking to the media, why are we getting another edition of Manny-World with, seemingly every news cycle?

As every one knows, the Sox own two successive options over Manny for 2009 and 2010, each for $20M each. (The Manny contract, by the way, although negotiated by Sox anti-Theo Dan Duquette, has looked better and better over time.) As also has been made clear to everyone, Manny turns 37 next May; while a 36-year old player might get a 4 year deal, it's unlikely that a 38-year old (going on 39) would get one in the winter of 2010-11.

So let's say that Manny is looking for one more contract. With each year that goes by, it becomes less and less likely that some GM will invest $90-100M to a 37 or 38-year old.

After all of that, what if I told you that Manny switched agents (to Scott Boras) last winter?

And what if I told you that if the Red Sox exercise one or both of the existing options on Manny, Boras gets paid nothing for the next two years and his previous agent collects 5% (or a cool $1M per option) for each year?

And what if I told you that as a 10/5 player, Manny can veto any trade unless the new team meets his agent's, rather, Manny's conditions? And what if those conditions included getting a four-year extension, the commission on which would be payable to Boras rather than the previous agent?

Do you think a new contract is something Mr. Boras -- or rather, Manny -- would be interested in?

Of course, there is more than a little irony in the fact that agent Boras may be trying to orchestrate the revocation of a team option; it was little more than a season ago when JD Drew opted out of his (player) option with the Dodgers to take a big payday with the Sox.

JD's agent? The same Mr. Boras.

September Scheduling

The trading deadline looms tomorrow, and teams are making a decision between trying to make a move to get them deep into the playoffs, and thinking about 'next year.'

With the Yankees having addressed two major and one minor problem (catcher, left-field, and situational lefty) with moves in the past few moves, it's clear that the Bronx Bombers have stepped up their efforts to close in on the AL East-leading Rays, and the (slumping, but still) Wild Card-leading Red Sox.

But the Yanks had best be in good playoff position when September 1st rolls around (when, by the way, Chien-Ming Wang is scheduled to return from the DL). In the month of September, the Yankees have just 10 homes games, against 16 road games; the homes series in the Bronx are against the East-leading Rays (3 games), the Central-leading White Sox (4 games), and the Orioles (last place in the East, although owning a respectable 51-56 record).

The Rays have a similar September, with just 10 homes games (against the Yankees, the Red Sox, and the Twins (currently 0.5 game out of first place in the Central, and 1.5 games out of the Wild Card spot); Tampa also has 17 away games, including a double-header the last week of the season against Baltimore.

And what about the other AL East contender? The Red Sox have the reverse schedule: 16 home and 10 away. The home series for the Sox include Baltimore (3 games); Tampa (3); Toronto (3); and a final week that includes 4 with Cleveland and a final 3 with the Yankees.

So how come the Yankees finish the season on the road, even though it's the last year at Yankee Stadium? You'll have to ask the schedule-makers at MLB; the last scheduled home game at the "House that Ruth Built" will be on September 21st.

And with the Yankee's September schedule, there's no guarantee that there will be baseball in the Bronx in October.

So...

If Rajon Rondo is to Jacoby Ellsbury, as Sam Cassell is to Coco Crisp?










Where does Ray Allen fit in?

WWWD?

The late Will McDonough, former Globe reporter and columnist, had a long memory, and a sharp wit. For years he referred to Roger Clemens, as the "Texas Con Man." Wonder what Ol' Will would say about the news yesterday in the Mitchell Report that Clemens was apparently a steroid user, beginning shortly after he left Boston?

For that matter, wonder what Dan Duquette is feeling this morning? He famously declared that Clemens was in the "twilight of his career" in Clemens left for Toronto in 1996.

For the record, here are Clemens' key stats from the period 1995-1998:

1995 (Age 32): 10-5 W-L, 4.18 ERA, 140 IP, 132 K

1996 (Age 33): 10-13, 3.63 ERA, 242.2 IP, 257 K

1997 (Age 34): 21-7, 2.05 ERA, 264 IP, 292 K

1998 (Age 35): 20-6, 2.65 ERA, 234.2 IP, 271 K

2004 vs. 2007

On the eve of the 2nd Red Sox parade in four years (and the 5th New England sports parade in since 2002, not including Ray Bourque's return trip home with the Stanley Cup that he had to go to Colorado to win), many in the media have been asking: which championship team was better: 2004 or 2007?

One thing that seems clear: without 2004, this year's team would have had a much more difficult time managing expectations both during the year, and especially in the post-season.

There are the obvious similarities between '04 and '07: the core of the lineup for both teams is and was -- in John Kerry's immortal words -- "Manny Ortiz"; the back-to-back power and on-base percentage has been duplicated very rarely in baseball history, most famously by Ruth and Gehrig in the late 1920s. Curt Schilling anchored both pitching staffs, although in 2004 (his first year in Boston, at age 37) he was still a power pitcher, with 8.05 Ks per 9 innings, while in 2007 he was down to just 6.02 K/9IP. Behind the plate, Jason Varitek remains the same, although his productivity has dropped (OPS down to .788 from a career high .872 in 2004), as would be expected from a catcher now 35 years old and with plenty of miles on the odometer.

But the entire infield has been turned over, and the 2007 team is clearly younger than the 2004 team (although less than one might think, with average age of 30.5 in 2004, and 30.1 years in 2007). More important, the 2007 team has young, home-grown talent in key positions: CF Jacoby Ellsbury, 2B Dustin Pedroia, closer Jonathan Papelbon, and 1B Kevin Youkilis, as well as pitchers Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Manny Delcarmen. In contrast, the most prominent product of the Sox farm system on the 2004 team was Trot Nixon, although he was already a grizzled dirt dog by that time.

In the years since 2004, it has become clear that some players -- Edgar Renteria and Matt Clement leap immediately to mind, although the jury is still out on Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo, and J.D. Drew -- have trouble making the leap to playing in (i) the American League; and/or (ii) the fishbowl of Boston.

What's missing from this year's team are the "Idiots" -- most prominently, Johnny Damon and Kevin Millar -- who were both outspoken veterans who kept the media on its toes and the clubhouse loose. Millar, in particular, apparently rubbed some on the team the wrong way, but there's no question that for a team with high expectations (the 2003 team was 5 outs away from the World Series), the veterans were important. Manny, interestingly, seemed to try to take on the "Idiot" role with his we'll-win-next-year comments (on the off-day) after Game 4 of this year's 2007 ALCS.

Finally, although it's difficult to remember today, there was an ongoing debate in 2004 about whether a World Series victory without an ALCS championship over the hated Yankees would still 'count':

That's what is so disappointing about this situation. In the aftermath of the brainlock by He Who Must Not Be Named, which kept the Red Sox out of the 2003 World Series, the 2004 Boston baseball season was viewed by all as a go-for-broke endeavor. Acquire a stopper and a closer, spend money, let the free agents play hard in their walk years, and trade Nomar if you have to. Go for it.

And just about everyone bought into it. The Nation wanted the Yankees. Merely winning a World Series wasn't enough. The road had to go through the Bronx.

No one seemed to worry too much about the Yankees this year.

"It's like rain on your wedding day..."

A few years ago, Alanis Morrisette burst on to the pop music stage with a catchy tune entitled "Ironic." The lyrics purported to describe a series of events that displayed irony:

A traffic jam when you're already late
A no-smoking sign on your cigarette break
It's like ten thousand spoons when all you need is a knife
It's meeting the man of my dreams
And then meeting his beautiful wife

Of course, as any 10th-grade English teacher will tell you, most of the examples in the song were not 'irony' -- defined as incongruity between the actual result of a sequence of events and the normal or expected result -- as much examples of "a-kick-in-the-ass." (But of course, the lyrics would have been more difficult in such case.)

So what does Alanis Morrisette have to do with the present-day Red Sox?

In 2003, the Red Sox experimented (for a few short weeks at least) with the Bill-James-inspired idea of 'closer-by-committee,' which was a concept that was based on two main ideas: first, that a team's best relief pitcher (aka the 'closer') was often utilized in games that would be won anyways; and second, that almost anyone could close. The rational extension of James' philosophy was that a team's best reliever ('closer') should often be used in the 6th, 7th, or 8th inning, when the game hung in the balance; and that any relief pitcher could be used in almost any circumstance.

As chronicled in the Baseball Prospectus book, Mind Game, the plan might have worked. But with a bullpen that suffered through injuries and ineffectiveness, and a manager (Grady Little) who was not enamored with James-ian philosophy, then-rookie GM Theo Epstein pulled the plug on the experiment after two months, and traded for Byung-Hyum Kim, who led the Sox in 2003 with 16 saves.

Fast forward 4 years to the ALCS. The Indians (although it has not been widely reported) have clearly adopted some elements of James' philosophy: their 'closer' -- Joe Borowski -- is not their best relief pitcher (as evidenced by his 5.07 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP), although he did record 45 saves during the course of the season.

But in the three games the Indians have won so far, it has been the Indians' middle relief (especially in comparison to the Sox' ineptitude in Games Two (Gagne, Lopez, and Lester) and Four (Delcarmen)) that has been a large part of the difference. In particular, Rafael Betancourt has been very effective (Games Two and Four). (Zero production out of the #1, #6-9 spots in the Sox order has not helped.)

Borowski has pitched in three games for the Indians so far in the ALCS, but only once (in Game Three) in a save situation. The Sox closer (and second-best pitcher, after Josh Beckett), Jonathan Papelbon, has pitched only once (2 effective innings in Game 2.)

Losing the ALCS because you get nothing out of your major post-season acquisitions (Julio Lugo and JD Drew)? That's a kick-in-the-ass.

Losing the ALCS because Cleveland (and, presumably, its GM Mark Shapiro) does a better job applying James-ian analysis to a baseball situation than the very team that employs James? That, friends, is irony.

Forecast for Jacobs Field: Scattered Angst

MLB's staggered postseason schedule has added a new dimension to pitching staff strategy this year. With at least three planned off days in the LCS, it is very reasonable to try and let your best starting pitcher go three times since rest is much less of an issue.

So since the Red Sox have one great starter (Beckett) and three others (Schilling, Dice-K, Wakefield) who all have some questionable aspect to their potential performance, they seem like the perfect candidate to bring back Game 1 winner Beckett for tonight's Game 4.

Even though pitching on three days rest has been spotty in the postseason for even great pitchers since the Division Series was added in 1995 (team record 39-54, starters ERA 4.37, 5.4 IP, 90 pitches), the Red Sox have a seemingly sure thing in Beckett.

But that is where all the statistical forecasting gets pushed aside for the meteorological forecasting. Rain is expected tonight and is expected to intensify by the start of Game 5. What if Beckett starts tonight and the game is delayed, forcing him to cut his outing short? But then what if they play an uninterrupted game tonight and Game 5 is disrupted by Mother Nature.

Red Sox Nation favors throwing the Cy Young favorite tonight. I agree, unless Chief Wahoo has been sighted doing his rain dance....