New Information Emerges About Air France Flight 447

More than two years after the Airbus 330 crashed, new information has emerged thanks to locating and recovering the "black box" flight data recorder. In short, human error caused the crash of AF 447. But the human error was in the face of -- and in some cases, enhanced by -- advanced autopilot functions that the human pilots were relying upon. Because they trusted the Airbus to "self-correct", the inexperienced pilots continued to fly the plane in the face of stall alarms. If they had been flying a much less sophisticated vehicle, it seems unlikely that they would not have taken corrective action and avoided the catastrophe. The Popular Mechanics article shows one of the problems that can emerge when "artificial intelligence" is relied upon in the face of other empirical data. Popular Mechanics article

Head East, Young Man...

With the NBA season approaching the half-way mark, Celtic fans have been squirming as a team that once rashly promised to win 72 games has now been treading water for several weeks (5-8 since Christmas Day, when they stood an impressive 23-5).

This Friday in Atlanta has become a surprising test -- the Celtics need a win to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Hawks. Although the Cs can point to absence of C Kevin Garnett as a big reason why the defense has been shaky recently, in reality, the Celts' swoon started even before Garnett went down.

Another team that has been slumping lately has been the Lakers. The defending champs looked great early, reaching a high-water record of 28-6 before slipping and losing 5 of their last 10.

But while the Celtics can point to Garnett's legs, the Lakers have a more troubling problem: going on the road. (In fairness, Ron Artest and Andrew Bynum are both "day-to-day". But then again, aren't we all, Mr. Costello?)

The Lakers have played the fewest road games in the NBA, save only the SA Spurs. (Actually, both the Spurs and Lakers have played 17 'true' road games, as the Lakers played the Clippers (as a visitor) once this season so far.) And in addition to playing few road games, the LAL have won very few as well -- just 10-8 so far.

The Lakers are at the White House this afternoon, being feted by POTUS for their championship last spring. But with five more road games on their current East Coast trip -- and coming off a statement loss in Cleveland on Thursday night, Sunday's game in the new Boston Garden will take on significance for both teams: the Lakers to prove that they can beat elite teams on the road.

The Celtics just have to show that they are still worthy -- or healthy enough -- for the 'elite' label.

Stealing Third

In (what proved to be) pivotal Game Four of the 2009 World Series, Johnny Damon pulled the rare feat of stealing two bases on a single play. In the top of the ninth with the score tied and two out, Damon fell behind 1-2, before working Brad Lidge for six more pitches and singling to left field.

Running on the first pitch to Mark Teixeira, Damon stole second, and barely pausing proceeded to take third as with the Phillies' shift, the bag was uncovered. Several Phils could have covered the bag, and Damon probably wouldn't have gone unless he was absolutely certain he could make it. Lidge proceeded to meltdown (hitting Teixeira with a pitch, and giving up an RBI double to A-Rod), and the Series was gone.

The mistake was actually made by Lidge, as it was the pitcher's responsibility to cover third with the shift on. But Phillies SS Jimmy Rollins said:

"I'm the captain of the infield," Rollins said. "It's my job. … I didn't signal to Brad to make sure he gets to third on a throw. All you've got to do is take two steps in that direction and you stop it right there. But I didn't do my part in making sure he knew the defense we were in."

Why focus on a play that happened four months ago? The same sort of mental mistake just occurred in Massachusetts. As the NYT reported today, as of December 16th, Martha Coakley was leading Scott Brown by 13 percentage points(*); but inside the numbers (or "cross-tabs"), when the respondents were limited to just those "likely" to vote, Coakley's lead shrunk to just 3 points. Scary numbers for Dems, and encouraging ones for the GOP.

(*)-The Times cites a GOP poll, but presumably other public polls (and Dem polls) would have -- or should have -- shown the same results.

As the Times shows, the GOP and Tea Partiers, used the holiday season -- when Coakley went off the trail for at least six days -- to build up momentum quietly behind Brown. By the time the public at large -- and the media -- caught up to the campaign, the "Brown-out" had broken out. Momentum and likeability -- combined with a public race that really lasted just two weeks (shortly after New Years through last Tuesday) -- spelled doom for Coakley.

No one has played the role of J-Roll in the Democratic party. Instead, we saw the incredible scene of dueling quotes on Tuesday -- before the voting booths had even closed.

Pedro Redux

After a losing -- albeit commendable -- performance in Game 2 of the World Series, Charlie Manuel gives Pedro Martinez the ball again tonight in Game 6.

And not unlike Grady Little back in 2003, Manuel stayed with Pedro past the 100-pitch mark, and it almost cost the Phils: after giving up just two hits (both of which were home runs), Charlie sent Pedro out for the 7th, and he gave up two straight hits before being relieved (the first runner, Jerry Hairston, Jr., eventually scored.)

The Phils' bullpen has been shaky all season. Pedro is almost sure to need help from the pen. 37-year old Andy Pettitte is pitching on short rest.

Must see TV indeed.

The Case of the Missing Emails

The Case of the Missing Emails has been roiling Boston's City Hall for the past few weeks. To recap, one of Mayor Menino's top aides, Michael Kineavy, has been routinely deleting his incoming and outgoing emails so that they would not be backed-up or otherwise retained on the City's servers. This is, as the papers carefully put it, an "apparent" violation of state law; the Mayor characterized it as an "'honest mistake'" that was blown out of proportion thanks to election "'silly season.'"

The law in question has some pretty clear penalties: up to a five hundred dollar fine, a year in prison, or both. While the fine may not get anyone's attention, a year in prison certainly should, as Samuel Johnson once quipped, focus one's mind.

The recovered emails were released in slow-motion over the weekend, and the sampling that were printed in the Globe yesterday showed the political process at its worse: the Mayor "blowing up" (former supporters); his "very long memory" and so forth.

Another public figure with an aversion to email comes to mind. This financier was also subject to laws requiring email retention, although he contemplated violating them (and apparently had to be convinced not to do so). In the end, he decided to print the emails out on hard paper -- to eliminate the possibility of an automated search -- and then converted the paper copies to microfiche when the volume of paper overwhelmed storage areas.

The name of the financier who spent so much time and effort to 'erase' his firm's email tracks? Bernie Madoff.

...And we're back

Sorry for the summer hiatus...perhaps like old friend Manny Ramirez, taking some time off in August is good for the fall.

File under: Allerton Being Allerton?

"You Can Hear the Angels Sing"

Heard again recently on the streets of Boston: an Irish brogue.

And why is that 'news'?

For much of the past 150 years, America was the 'Great Escape' for those in Ireland. They came to escape oppressive laws(*), primogeniture, and a marginal agricultural economy. They came in large numbers in the 1840s (during the Great (Potato) Famine, when almost a quarter of the Irish population departed), and again at the end of the 19th century. And with almost one-in-ten Americans claiming ancestry, Irish-ness has gone from political pariah to political punchline. (Even the current President of the United States spells his last name "O'Bama" on March 17th.)

In more recent years, many young Irish would come over for a few years in their early 20s (usually on temporary visas), make some money, and return home to raise their family.

But in recent years, the pace of this latter emigration, temporary as it was, had slowed. The growth of the "Celtic Tiger" began in the 1990s, suffered a brief set back around the turn of the century, and then took off with a vengeance in the new millennium. And the rise of the Celtic Tiger meant that 'good jobs at good wages' for young Irish could be found in Dublin and Galway, and not just Boston and New York.



















But while the growth may have been initiated thanks to low tax rates and an educated workforce attracting global businesses, it also deregulated banking and financial services. The growth also quickly spread to real estate and housing development. (An interesting parallel can be drawn to another country that de-regulated quickly: Iceland. Michael Lewis' take on the 'kreppa' is here; Ian Parker's (New Yorker) is here.)

And the overheated Celtic economy boiled over. As Paul Krugman described earlier this week, Ireland faces a technical depression: a contraction of the real economy of more than 10% this year. And as the Irish banks crumbled, the government stepped in -- think: Celtic TARP. But the world markets are not as forgiving to little Ireland as they have been to the U.S. (so far.) According to Krugman, unless the government gets its deficit under control by slashing spending and/or raising taxes, lenders won't buy Irish bonds. And thus, the crisis (at least on the Emerald Isle) will get much worse before it gets better.

Which brings us back to the happenstance of hearing the brogue on the streets of Boston. With the Irish economy heading downhill, young Irish again will be likely showing up here in Boston, in New York, and Chicago, looking for work and a better chance.

It's Back to the Future. Celtic Style.

(*) - For example, in the eighteenth century, thanks to British-based laws: "A Catholic couldn't sit in the Parliament, or be a solicitor, a gamekeeper, or a constable. They weren't allowed to attend university, either in Ireland or abroad, nor could they keep a school. Instead they relied on "hedge schools," where itinerant teachers lectured students in the open air. Priests said Mass in secret, too, at rocks and sites known only to the faithful. A Catholic orphan had to be raised as a Protestant, while no Catholic could own property or receive it as a gift." Barich, A Pint of Plain, p. 153-54 (2009).

How To Prevent It From Happening Again...

Eight fresh ideas from a Wall Street veteran, Al Wojnilower, published last month in a CSFI (London-based Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation) book entitled, "Grumpy Old Bankers: Wisdom from Crises Past."

1. Limit rewards for short-term gains;

2. Financial firms should be partnerships (the same prescription, by the way, as Michael Lewis);

3. FDIC-insured banks should be public utilities;

4. Prohibit short-selling; and

5. Restrict Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae to traditional activities.

If such advice is taken, the result may be as follows:

6. US will be the global leader in confidence-boosting regulations, and not participate in a race-to-the-bottom;

7. Make it more difficult to game commodities markets;

8. Real estate bubbles less likely to occur.

(Wojnilower refused to 'bullet-point' his brief article, saying "No point in summarizing the main points; read it all. It is well worth the effort.)

The last point is true, but the summary is here anyways.

Update: Shuttin' Detroit Down

John Rich's "Shuttin' Detroit Down" remained stuck at #13 in this week's (April 4, 2009 release date) Billboard Country charts.

The data (obviously) was complied before the news yesterday that both Chrysler and GM face likely structured -- albeit-government-backed -- bankruptcy.

It's Not Exactly "Happy Days Are Here Again"

John Rich (one half of Big & Rich) has put out a song that may become (if it hasn't already) the anthem of the "Great Crash."

"Shuttin' Detroit Down" is currently #13 on the Billboard country list, and is up from last week.

Refrain:

Cause in the real world they'rre shutting Detroit down
While the boss man takes his bonus pay and jets out of town/
And DC’s bailing out the bankers as the farmers auction ground,
Yeah while they’re living it up on Wall Street in that New York City town,
Here in the real world there shuttin’ Detroit down.
They’re shuttin’ Detroit down.

To the extent that Rich has captured the mood in the middle part of the body politic, it's not a good sign for whatever the next steps in the bailout are going to be.

6 OTs !

All-time classic game played last night in a match-up of two original Big East schools: Syracuse and UConn. 40 minutes of regulation and 30 minutes of overtime later, the Orange moved on with a 127-117 win.

A few thoughts:

* While six OTs was one shy of the NCAA record of seven, it has been a long time since two such contrasting, yet evenly-match power teams where involved in an epic game. The Cuse's offense runs through guards 6'0" (maybe) Jonny Flynn and 6'4" Eric Devendorf. UConn is built around 7'3" Hasheem Thabeet.

* Either team could win the National Championship, assuming they can recover from the emotion of last night.

* Orange junior guard Andy Rautins, is a tremendous passer. It seems hard to believe that he averages just 3 assists per game.

* The winner of the game (Syracuse, as it turns out) got a break with West Virginia winning over Pitt. Both WVU and Cuse will play their third game in three days tonight; if Pitt had advanced, the extra bye day may have played a bigger role.

* UConn associate head coach George Blaney earned his salary last night: after every whistle, he was subjected to a rhetorical monologue from UConn head coach Jim Calhoun.

The "Loyal" Opposition

Intellectual bankruptcy is not limited to Republicans inside the Washington Beltway.

Last night's rebuttal to the President's Address to Congress by LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) provided more of the same.

With the bottom of the economic fall-out from the eight years of the Bush Administration still nowhere in sight, Gov. Jindal had a remarkable policy prescription: the country needs less regulation, less oversight, and in effect, less guvr-mint.

In an courageous attempt at revisionism, it wasn't Bush Administration incompetence that exacerbated Katrina -- it was "some bureaucrat" that required rescuers to have insurance. (One does have to respect Jindal's chutzpah, however; you would think that the GOP would want to leave Katrina well enough alone.)

It's not an out-of-control financial system that brought the country's economy to a stand-still, but rather those who refuse to believe that "Americans can do anything."

And in a time when consumer confidence is at a historic low (according to the Conference Board, the index is at 25, down from 37 a month ago, and one-third the 75 from one year ago), the recipe is more of the same: less government, fewer taxes.

After the electoral losses in 2000 and 2002, many Democrats argued that the party needed to return to its roots. Gov. Howard Dean rode the borrowed line ("I'm from the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party") to early fundraising and poll success in 2003. But Dean eventually flamed out, and it was Bush, not Kerry who was elected in 2004.

Jindal's message last night was eerily reminiscent of Dean's. The GOP problem was not that its policy prescriptions -- less government, less oversight, deficits don't matter -- were wrong, but rather that the GOP abandoned the hymnbook. The argument that the policies themselves are flawed in these times seems to escape both Jindal and the rest of his party.

Obama touched on the point last night:

A surplus became an excuse to transfer wealth to the wealthy instead of an opportunity to invest in our future. Regulations were gutted for the sake of a quick profit at the expense of a healthy market. People bought homes they knew they couldn't afford from banks and lenders who pushed those bad loans anyway. And all the while, critical debates and difficult decisions were put off for some other time on some other day.

Well, that day of reckoning has arrived, and the time to take charge of our future is here.

In fact there's only one group that currently seems able to summon organized opposition to President Obama: Wall Street.

While the POTUS tried to brush off the vagaries of the market with a line ("I understand that, on any given day, Wall Street may be more comforted by an approach that gives bank bailouts with no strings attached and that holds nobody accountable for their reckless decisions, but such an approach won't solve the problem"), the market does have an effect on -- and reflect -- consumer wealth and consumer confidence.

This morning's opening -- DJIA down 150 at mid-day -- seemed to reflect Wall Street's continuing depression. And reflected that even as the President talks up the long-term future, in the short-term there's more pain to go.

Finally, Jindal's delivery was also a problem, as noted by even Fox News. But the style should not be confused with the substance. And the substance was bad enough.

Game On

Ten days ago, in the midst of the debate over the stimulus, Peggy Noonan -- the poet laureate of the GOP-in-exile -- wrote: "[Obama's] political mistake, which in retrospect we will see as huge, is that he remoralized the Republicans. He let them back in the game."

With the perspective of just a few days' time, Noonan's words ring true, but for a different reason. It's still a game. And GOP is still treating it as such.

Continuing a pattern that put the final bullet in McCain's presidential campaign in the fall, Republicans sense the fiscal crisis, and jump in with a gimmick. McCain himself suspending his campaign to rush to Washington on the eve of the first debate, then reversing his course. John Thune's stack of dollar bills. Eric Cantor's use of Aerosmith's "Back in the Saddle" (subsequently revoked by the band.)

And finally, a roll call on the stimulus that found just three Republican Senators -- moderates all -- against 176 Members of Congress and 38 Senators all voting "No."

The result: a GOP that is in favor, at least institutionally, of continued bad news on the economy. Newly-elected RNC Chair Michale Steele said:

“I’m telling the party leadership around the country, don’t believe the hype,” he said. “There will be a slight uptick, it will flat-line, and it will continue to go down.”

That's great, Mr. Chairman. Welcome to the Great Depression II.

And to think that Pres. Obama was criticized for talking down the economy last week.

But once upon a time, the GOP was all for supporting the U.S.A., right or wrong. In 2007 (and perhaps unfairly), then-candidate John McCain did not pull any punches when he criticized those Democrats who opposed the Surge:

"I watched with regret as the House of Representatives voted to deny our troops the support necessary to carry out their new mission. Democratic leaders smiled and cheered as the last votes were counted. What were they celebrating? Defeat? Surrender? In Iraq, only our enemies were cheering. A defeat for the United States is a cause for mourning not celebrating."

Unless, of course, GOP seats are at risk.

And the Game Goes On.