Stealing Third

In (what proved to be) pivotal Game Four of the 2009 World Series, Johnny Damon pulled the rare feat of stealing two bases on a single play. In the top of the ninth with the score tied and two out, Damon fell behind 1-2, before working Brad Lidge for six more pitches and singling to left field.

Running on the first pitch to Mark Teixeira, Damon stole second, and barely pausing proceeded to take third as with the Phillies' shift, the bag was uncovered. Several Phils could have covered the bag, and Damon probably wouldn't have gone unless he was absolutely certain he could make it. Lidge proceeded to meltdown (hitting Teixeira with a pitch, and giving up an RBI double to A-Rod), and the Series was gone.

The mistake was actually made by Lidge, as it was the pitcher's responsibility to cover third with the shift on. But Phillies SS Jimmy Rollins said:

"I'm the captain of the infield," Rollins said. "It's my job. … I didn't signal to Brad to make sure he gets to third on a throw. All you've got to do is take two steps in that direction and you stop it right there. But I didn't do my part in making sure he knew the defense we were in."

Why focus on a play that happened four months ago? The same sort of mental mistake just occurred in Massachusetts. As the NYT reported today, as of December 16th, Martha Coakley was leading Scott Brown by 13 percentage points(*); but inside the numbers (or "cross-tabs"), when the respondents were limited to just those "likely" to vote, Coakley's lead shrunk to just 3 points. Scary numbers for Dems, and encouraging ones for the GOP.

(*)-The Times cites a GOP poll, but presumably other public polls (and Dem polls) would have -- or should have -- shown the same results.

As the Times shows, the GOP and Tea Partiers, used the holiday season -- when Coakley went off the trail for at least six days -- to build up momentum quietly behind Brown. By the time the public at large -- and the media -- caught up to the campaign, the "Brown-out" had broken out. Momentum and likeability -- combined with a public race that really lasted just two weeks (shortly after New Years through last Tuesday) -- spelled doom for Coakley.

No one has played the role of J-Roll in the Democratic party. Instead, we saw the incredible scene of dueling quotes on Tuesday -- before the voting booths had even closed.

Pedro Redux

After a losing -- albeit commendable -- performance in Game 2 of the World Series, Charlie Manuel gives Pedro Martinez the ball again tonight in Game 6.

And not unlike Grady Little back in 2003, Manuel stayed with Pedro past the 100-pitch mark, and it almost cost the Phils: after giving up just two hits (both of which were home runs), Charlie sent Pedro out for the 7th, and he gave up two straight hits before being relieved (the first runner, Jerry Hairston, Jr., eventually scored.)

The Phils' bullpen has been shaky all season. Pedro is almost sure to need help from the pen. 37-year old Andy Pettitte is pitching on short rest.

Must see TV indeed.

WWGD?

The Phillies send Pedro Martinez to the mound tonight at Yankee Stadium after taking a 1-0 World Series lead last night. Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel was roundly criticized after pulling Martinez in Game 2 of the NLCS despite a 1-0 lead and just 87 pitches (through seven innings).

At the time, the Phillies bullpen seemed shaky: Brad Lidge had lost the "closer" job late in the season, and ended the year with an 0-8 record and a 7.21 ERA. (A year ago he had been 48-for-48 in regular season and post-season saves.)

The Phillies' pen has been better in recent games, and perhaps Manuel will feel confident in that performance. But in another cold night in the Bronx, the ghost of Grady Little will undoubtedly be lingering over Pedro and his manager as the dreaded 100-pitch limit approaches.

Projecting the Hall of Famers in the 2008 World Series

While Fox Sports may be disappointed by a Tampa Bay Rays/Philadelphia Phillies World Series, a fan of old-fashioned baseball should look forward to the match-up.

Tampa is riding one of the great sports stories of all time: never having won more than 70 games in a season, the Rays dropped the "Devil" and went from a worst-in-baseball 66 wins a year ago to 97 wins (trailing only the LA Angels, and tied with the Cubs.)

Playing in a division with two super-powers, the Rays have adapted by drafting good young talent, and building a team that should be able to compete for the next 3-4 years. Evan Longoria (22 years old), BJ Upton (23), and Carl Crawford (26(!)) are the anchors to build a line-up around. And the pitching is perhaps even better, with James Shields (26), Scott Kazmir (24), Matt Garza (24), and live-armed David Price (22).

Historically, virtually every World Series champ sports at least one Hall-of-Famer (see below posts for the comprehensive (we hope) list), and many have two or three. (From 1903 to 1980, every single team had at least one player; the 1981 strike-season Dodgers have only manager Tommy Lasorda, and like the 2005 Chicago White Sox, seem unlikely to add any more players.) While the vagaries of the Hall-of-Fame selection process are the subject for another post, the relationship between the HOF and WS Champs is probably two-fold:

1. In order to win, you need great years out of your great players. Like a bad penny, 'bad' players --- Babe Ruth, Tris Speaker, Harry Hooper, Johnny Evers in the old days, and Jack Morris, Rickey Henderson, and Reggie Jackson in the modern ones -- keep showing up with championship teams.

2. Hall-of-Fame voters -- like other voters in other elections -- like winners. When your team wins the title, you are more likely to be remembered, and enshrined in Cooperstown. Yes, yes... we are talking about you, Curt Schilling. And Enos Slaughter as well. And of course (and ironically, as his career ended when the Yankees cut him to make room for Slaughter in August, 1956), Phil Rizzuto. A World Series title or two is a huge bonus for a guy who otherwise would be on the HOF bubble.

So who are the HOF candidates for these two teams? For the Phillies, it's easy: 1B Ryan Howard and SS Jimmy Rollins have both taken significant steps towards Cooperstown in their first few years in the bigs (5 years for Howard, 9 for Rollins). Both have earned more than half of the mythical 100 points that Bill James has documented is necessary to be a 'likely HOFer' in his HOF Monitor. (Howard has 63.5/100, while Rollins has 58/100.) And both will take a further step if their team wins it's first title in 28 years.

Tampa's players are so young, in contrast, that no one is on track for the HOF. Crawford, the longest tenured Ray with 7 years, has accumulated just 31.5 HOF Monitor 'points'; however his list of "similar players" includes HOFers Sam Crawford and Roberto Clemente. Closer Troy Percival is a potential HOFer (86/100), but he has been hurt and has yet to pitch in the 2008 post-season.

Tampa seems deeper and better. And the Rays win, we could be looking back some day to the day when a young Ray took the first step toward baseball immortality.

Prediction: Rays in 6.

And another rebuilding year in the Bronx in 2009.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (Summary)

2001-2007: 1.8 HOFer on each WS champ (projected).

1991-2000: 3.0 HOFer on each WS champ (projected).

1981-1990: 1.2 HOFers on each WS champ (actual).

1971-1980: 2.9 HOFers on each WS champ.

1961-1970: 3.0 HOFers on each WS champ.

1951-1960: 4.3 HOFers on each WS champ.

1941-1950: 3.1 HOFer on each WS champion

1931-1940: 5.0 HOFers on each WS champion.

1921-1930: 4.4 HOFers on each WS champion.

1911-1920: 2.8 HOFers on each WS champion.

1903-1910: 3.0 HOFers on each WS champion.

World Series Champs and Hall of Famers (2001 - 2007)

(All likely or possible HOFers.)

2007 - Boston Red Sox (OF Manny Ramirez (on Bill James' HOF Monitor, 208 out of 100), P Curt Schilling (171/100))

2006 - St. Louis Cardinals (1B Albert Pujols (189/100), Mgr. Tony LaRussa)

2005 - Chicago White Sox

2004 - Boston Red Sox (P Pedro Martinez (202/100), Ramirez, Schilling)

2003 - Florida Marlins (C Pudge Rodriguez (228/100))

2002 - Anaheim Angels (P Troy Percival (86/100))

2001 - Arizona Diamondbacks (Schilling, P Randy Johnson (322/100))

Projected HOFers = 11, out of 6 WS Championship teams = 1.8 HOF/WS

Note: DH Frank Thomas played 34G for 2005 CHW; did not play in WS.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1991 - 2000)

2000 - New York Yankees (No HOFers yet; possible HOFers include P Mariano Rivera (197 out of 100 on Bill James' HOF Monitor), SS Derek Jeter (235/100), P Roger Clemens (331/100), OF Bernie Williams (133/100)).

1999 - New York Yankees (none; likely Rivera, Jeter, Clemens, Williams)

1998 - New York Yankees (none; likely Rivera, Jeter, Williams)

1997 - Florida Marlins (none; possible HOFers: P Kevin Brown (93/100); SS Edgar Renteria (94/100))

1996 - New York Yankees (3B Wade Boggs; possible HOFers: Jeter, Rivera, Williams)

1995 - Atlanta Braves 3B Chipper Jones (159.5/100), P Greg Maddux (255/100), P John Smoltz (167/100), P Tom Glavine (176/100))

1994 - Not played

1993 - Toronto Blue Jays (DH Paul Molitor; other likely HOFers: 2B Roberto Alomar (193/100), OF Ricky Henderson (183/100))

1992 - Toronto Blue Jays (DH Dave Winfield; other possible HOFers: Alomar, P Jack Morris (122.5/100; 0-2, 8.44ERA in WS), P David Cone (103/100))

1991 - Minnesota Twins (OF Kirby Puckett; other possible HOFers: Morris, P Rick Aguilera (90(!)/100))

Actual HOFers = 4
Projected HOFers = 27, 9 WS Championship Teams = 3.0 HOF/WS

Note: Morris also on 1993 TOR (7-12, 6.19), but did not pitch in WS.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1981 - 1990)

1990 - Cincinnati Reds (None; other possible HOFers: SS Barry Larkin (118.5 on Bill James' HOF Monitor scale; 100 is "Likely HOFer"); P Randy Myers (97/100 HOF Monitor))

1989 - Oakland Athletics (P Dennis Eckersley; other possible HOFers: Rickey Henderson (183/100), Mark McGwire (163/100); Jose Canseco (101/100); Tony LaRussa (#3 all-time managerial wins))

1988 - Los Angeles Dodgers (Mgr Tommy Lasorda; other possible HOFers: P Orel Hershiser (90.5/100); Fernando Valenzuela (66.5/100))

1987 - Minnesota Twins (OF Kirby Puckett; other possible HOFers: P Bert Blyleven (120/100))

1986 - New York Mets (C Gary Carter; other possible HOFers: 1B Keith Hernandez (86/100))

1985 - Kansas City Royals (3B George Brett; other possibles HOFers: 2B Frank White (81/100))

1984 - Detroit Tigers (Mgr Sparky Anderson; other possible HOFers: P Jack Morris (122.5/100))

1983 - Baltimore Orioles (1B Eddie Murray, SS Cal Ripken, P Jim Palmer (1-0 in 2 IP in WS))

1982 - St. Louis Cardinals (SS Ozzie Smith, P Bruce Sutter)

1981 - Los Angeles Dodgers (Mgr Tommy Lasorda; other possible HOFers: 1B Steve Garvey (130.5/100))

12 HOFers, 10 WS Championship Teams = 1.2 HOFers/WS

Note: P Don Sutton was 3-6 for 1988 LAD, but pitched last game in August, 1988.

Note2: P Steve Carlton was 1-5 for 1987 MIN, did not pitch in post-season.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1971 - 1980)

1980 - Philadelphia Phillies (3B Mike Schmidt, P Steve Carlton)

1979 - Pittsburgh Pirates (1B Willie Stargell)

1978 - New York Yankees (OF Reggie Jackson, P Catfish Hunter)

1977 - New York Yankees (Jackson, Hunter)

1976 - Cincinnati Reds (C Johnny Bench, 1B Tony Perez, 2B Joe Morgan, Mgr Sparky Anderson)

1975 - Cincinnati Reds (Bench, Perez, Morgan, Anderson)

1974 - Oakland Athletics (Mgr Dick Williams, P Catfish Hunter, OF Reggie Jackson, P Rollie Fingers)

1973 - Oakland Athletics (Williams, Hunter, Jackson, Fingers)

1972 - Oakland Athletics (Williams, Hunter, Jackson, Fingers)

1971 - Pittsburgh Pirates (Stargell, OF Roberto Clemente)

29 HOFers, 10 WS Championship teams = 2.9 HOF/WS.

Note: 1B/3B Pete Rose was a member of 1980 PHI, 1976 CIN, 1975 CIN.

Note(2): OF Orlando Cepeda played 3G for 1972 OAK.

Note(3): Bob Lemon was manager of 1978 NYY.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1961 - 1970)

1970 - Baltimore Orioles (Mgr Earl Weaver, 3B Brooks Robinson, OF Frank Robinson, P Jim Palmer)

1969 - New York Mets (P Tom Seaver, P Nolan Ryan (6-3); 2.1 IP in WS)

1968 - Detroit Tigers (OF Al Kaline (102 G, 11-29, 2HR in WS), 3B Eddie Mathews (52AB; 1-3 AB in WS)

1967 - St. Louis Cardinals (OF Lou Brock, P Bob Gibson, 1B Orlando Cepeda, P Steve Carlton (14-9, 193 IP; 0-1 in WS))

1966 - Baltimore Orioles (B. Robinson, F. Robinson, SS Luis Aparicio, Palmer)

1965 - Los Angeles Dodgers (Mgr. Walter Alston, P Sandy Koufax, P Don Drysdale)

1964 - St. Louis Cardinals (Brock, Gibson)

1963 - Los Angeles Dodgers (Alston, Koufax, Drysdale)

1962 - New York Yankees (OF Mickey Mantle, P Whitey Ford, OF/C Yogi Berra (2AB in WS))

1961 - New York Yankees (Berra, Mantle, Ford)

30 HOFers, 10 WS Championship Teams = 3.0 HOF/WS

Note: 1967 STL managed by Red Schoendienst.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1951 - 1960)

1960 - Pittsburgh Pirates (2B Bill Mazeroski, OF Roberto Clemente)

1959 - Los Angeles Dodgers (Mgr Walter Alston, OF Duke Snider, P Sandy Koufax, P Don Drysdale)

1958 - New York Yankees (Mgr Casey Stengel, C Yogi Berra, OF Mickey Mantle, P Whitey Ford, OF Enos Slaughter (4G, 3AB in WS))

1957 - Milwaukee Braves (2B Red Schoendist, 3B Eddie Mathews, OF Hank Aaron, P Warren Spahn)

1956 - New York Yankees (Stengel, Berra, Mantle, Ford, Slaughter (7-20, 1 HR, 4 RBI in WS))

1955 - Brooklyn Dodgers (Alston, C Roy Campanella, 3B Jackie Robinson, SS Pee Wee Reese, Snider)

1954 - New York Giants (Mgr Leo Durocher, OF Willie Mays, OF Monte Irvin, P Hoyt Wilhelm)

1953 - New York Yankees (Stengel, Berra, Rizzuto, Mantle, Ford)

1952 - New York Yankees (Stengel, Berra, Rizzuto, Mantle)

1951 - New York Yankees (Stengel, Berra, Rizzuto, OF Joe DiMaggio, OF Mickey Mantle (96 G/1-5 in WS))

43 HOFers, 10 WS Championship Teams = 4.3 HOF/WS.

Note: Phil Rizzuto played 31 G for 1956 NYY, but was released August 16th.

Note (2): 1955 BRK roster included P Sandy Koufax (12 G at age 19), and P Tommy Lasorda (4 G). Neither played in the 1955 World Series.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1941 - 1950)

1950 - New York Yankees (Mgr Casey Stengel, C Yogi Berra, SS Phil Rizzuto, OF Joe DiMaggio)

1949 - New York Yankees (Stengel, Berra, Rizzuto, DiMaggio)

1948 - Cleveland Indians (Mgr/SS Lou Boudreau, P Bob Feller, B Bob Lemon, P Satchel Paige)

1947 - New York Yankees (Rizzuto, DiMaggio, Berra (83 G but 3-19, 1HR in WS))

1946 - St. Louis Cardinals (2B Red Schoendist, OF Stan Musial, OF Enos Slaughter)

1945 - Detroit Tigers (P Hal Newhouser, 1B Hank Greenberg (78 games/7-23, 2HR in WS))

1944 - St. Louis Cardinals (Musial)

1943 - New York Yankees (Mgr. Joe McCarthy, C Bill Dickey)

1942 - St. Louis Cardinals (Slaughter, Musial)

1941 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey,Rizzuto, DiMaggio, P Red Ruffing, P Lefty Gomez)

31 HOFs, 10 WS Championship teams = 3.1 HOF/WS

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1931 - 1940)

1940 - Cincinnati Reds (Mgr Bill McKechnie, C Ernie Lombardi)

1939 - New York Yankees (Mgr Joe McCarthy, C Bill Dickey, OF Joe DiMaggio, P Red Ruffing, P Lefty Gomez)

1938 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey, 1B Lou Gehrig, DiMaggio, Ruffing, Gomez)

1937 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey, Gehrig, 2B Tony Lazzeri, DiMaggio, Ruffing, Gomez)

1936 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey, Gehrig, Lazzeri, DiMaggio, Ruffing, Gomez)

1935 - Detroit Tigers (Mgr/C Mickey Cochrane, 1B Hank Greenberg, 2B Charlie Gehringer, OF Goose Goslin)

1934 - St. Louis Cardinals (2B Frankie Frisch, OF Joe Medwick, P Dizzy Dean)

1933 - New York Giants (Mgr/1B Bill Terry, OF Mel Ott, P Carl Hubbell)

1932 - New York Yankees (McCarthy, Dickey, 3B Joe Sewell, OF Babe Ruth, Lazzeri, Gehrig, Gomez, Ruffing, P Herb Pennock)

1931 - St. Louis Cardinals (1B Jim Bottomley, 2B Frankie Frisch, OF Chick Hafey, P Burleigh Grimes)

50 HOF, 10 WS Championship Team = 5.0 HOF/WS

Note: SS Leo Durocher played 146 games for 1934 STL, including 7-27, 4 R in WS.

Note(2): C Ernie Lombardi played just 109 G for 1940 CIN, and 2G, 1-3, 1 2B in WS.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1921 - 1930)

1930 - Philadelphia Athletics (Mgr Connie Mack, C Mickey Cochrane, 1B Jimmie Foxx, OF Al Simmons, P Lefty Grove)

1929 - Philadelphia Athletics (Mack, Cochrane, Foxx, Simmons, Grove)

1928 - New York Yankees (OF Babe Ruth, 1B Lou Gehrig, 2B Tony Lazzeri, OF Earle Combs, P Waite Hoyt, P Herb Pennock, Mgr Miller Huggins)

1927 - New York Yankees (Ruth, Gehrig, Lazzeri, Combs, Hoyt, Pennock, Huggins)

1926 - St. Louis Cardinals(Mgr/2B Rogers Hornsby, 1B Jim Bottomley, P Pete Alexander)

1925 - Pittsburgh Pirates (2B Pie Traynor, OF Kiki Cuyler)

1924 - Washington Senators (OF Goose Goslin, P Walter Johnson, OF Sam Rice)

1923 - New York Yankees (Ruth, Pennock, Hoyt, Huggins)

1922 - New York Giants (1B George Kelly, 3B Frankie Frisch, SS Dave Bancroft, Mgr John McGraw)

1921 - New York Giants (Kelly, Frisch, Bancroft, McGraw)


44 HOFs, 10 WS Championship Team = 4.4 HOF/WS

Note: OF Casey Stengel was a member of the 1922 NYG, although was not a HOF player.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1911 - 1920)

1920 - Cleveland Indians (OF Tris Speaker, P Stan Coveleski)

1919 - Cincinnati Reds (OF Edd Roush)

1918 - Boston Red Sox (OF Harry Hooper, OF/P Babe Ruth)

1917 - Chicago White Sox (C Ray Schalk, 2B Eddie Collins, P Red Faber)

1916 - Boston Red Sox (Hooper, Ruth)

1915 - Boston Red Sox (Hooper, OF Tris Speaker, Ruth)

1914 - Boston Braves (SS Rabbit Maranville, 2B Johnny Evers)

1913 - Philadelphia Athletics (Mgr Connie Mack, 2B Eddie Collins, 3B Frank (Home Run) Baker, P Eddie Plank, P Chief Bender, P Herb Pennock)

1912 - Boston Red Sox (OF Harry Hooper, OF Tris Speaker)

1911 - Philadelphia Athletics (Mack, Collins, Baker, Plank, Bender)

28 Hall-of-Famers, 10 WS Championship teams = 2.8 HOF/WS

Note: 1917 CWS Shoeless Joe Jackson also probably a Hall of Famer, but for 1919 Black Sox scandal.

World Series Champs & Hall of Famers (1903 - 1910)

1910 - Philadelphia Athletics (Mgr Connie Mack, 2B Eddie Collins, 3B Frank (Home Run) Baker, P Eddie Plank)

1909 - Pittsburgh Pirates (SS Honus Wagner, P Vic Willis)

1908 - Chicago Cubs (SS Joe Tinker, 2B Johnny Evers, 1B Frank Chance, P Mordecai Brown)

1907 - Chicago Cubs (Tinker,Evers, Chance, Brown)

1906 - Chicago White Sox (SS George Davis, P Ed Walsh)

1905 - New York Giants (P Christy Mathewson, C Roger Bresnahan, P Joe McGinnity)

1904 - not played

1903 - Boston Pilgrims (P Cy Young, Mgr/3B Jimmy Collins)

21 Hall of Famers, 7 WS Championship Teams = 3 HOF/WS champ